Tuesday, September 20, 2011

A few notes on GW5 . . .

A few notes on the GW . . .

1.  For the first time, I had time to examine the schedule, evaluate home/away/favorable rotation.  So, as an experiment, I have gone to a strict rotation system with some of my squad players this year . . .or at least since the faux WC of GW2.  So we have  . . .
Vorm/Schwarzer
W.Brown/D.Simpson
Petrov/Moses
GW2-GW4 were a bit of a bust for the experiment, with a +1 result, largely due to the good defensive work of NWC away @ SUN and QPR.  But this week proved a massive plus - Vorm (8); Brown(6); Petrov(7) v. Schwarzer(2), Simpson(2) and Moses(2) or a +15. (I did play Simpson this week instead of Boswinga, but the point should be clear.
Of course, I am not going to rotate my top guys, but I think as you WC or make transfers, you should evaluate the rotation options.  I firmly believe that it makes more sense to have budget guys who rotate home/away as opposed to just transferring in the 'hot' budget guy de jour (which seems so like chasing last week's points), or a player at the low end of the budget scale because he makes 0.5 available.  

2.  My last post suggested Aguero was close to a 'must-have' and he provided further evidence in GW5.  I don't think Mancini's rotation plans are a big deal.  A top forward will still score 150+ even if he plays only 2250+ minutes.  I wish I had him or wish I could get him in in less than 3 weeks.

3.  Last week I swapped D.Graham for Adebayor.  That proved the single most inspired Stooshers move in 2 years.  Graham didn't play and Adebayor was at the heart of Tottenham's demolition of Liverpool.  Adebayor is a proven, brilliant, forward on his day (he scored 24 goals for Arsenal a short few years ago) and at 8.0 - a major bargain. The lesson: trust your intuition if it's a free transfer and looks decent long term value.

4.  Yes, Chelsea lost 3-1 but anyone watching the game will know that it could have gone another direction had Ramires converted Torres' cross midway through the first half.  Chelsea created a ton of chances and I think the match brings Torres back on the FF map.  He was the most dangerous forward on the pitch and should have had 3 goals and an assist.  AVB is an impressive coach and is trying to develop a quick 1 or 2 touch style, always with the idea to play Torres in early.  It's a style I like and I think can be successful backed by a strudy defense with attacking elements of its own (Boswinga, Cole, Luiz).  Chelsea really switched on in the second half when Anelka substituted in for Lampard.  I think Chelsea's best line-up includes Meireles, Mata, Ramires, Anelka, Torres.  Which leaves Mikel, Sturridge, Malouda, and Lampard (and Drogba) on the periphery.  Meireles seems to have taken the deep role off Mikel, but with a bit more attacking intent.  Lots of balls played aggressively forward, quick combinations with the other mids, and the occasionaly foray forward.  I think Anelka's performance will have demonstrated to AVB that Sturridge should come off the bench.  The key player here is Torres.  Was this match a 1-off?  Time will tell, but the Spanish choir boy is now down to 10.5. AVB appears to have decided the attack should center on Torres and Chelsea have a good near term schedule . . . .

5.  Which brings me to 'yes, I know it was just one game but . . . ' -
(i) well, yes,Torres. 
(ii)  if you are going old school (i.e., a 'squad' budget forward) you could do worse than David Hoilett for 6.0.  Yakubu came on to put the sword to Arsenal but the young Canadian provided his 3rd assist of the season and looked the main tormenter of the at-sea Arsenal defense.
(iii)  I watched a ton of the Villa/NWC game and was blown away that Cabaye got nothing in FF terms from the game.  Bossed a few games so far for NWC.  A good schedule ahead for NWC and the Frenchman is 6.0 and on free kicks.  Arfa is reputed to be coming back, so that may be a factor, but Cabaye is impressvie.
(iv)  Not just 1 game but 2 for the new look QPR and a 3-0 demolition of WW @ the Molinieux.  Depending on your taste, SWP, Joey Barton or preseason favoriteTaarabt looking very, very up for it.  And priced right.  2 CS on the bounce for the London side.  I had Gabbidon in GW1 and after their pommeling by Bolton 4-0 dropped him.  If you are looking for a budget defender, time to reinvest ? 
(v)  Sunderland had a blinder this week, but the only guy I don't think is a 1-off is Seb Larsson.  On free kicks, and now with a natural target in Bendtner, the Swede looks decent value at 6.5. 
Finally, (vi) a lot of folks will be dumping out Suarez after Liverpool's abysmal performance at WHL.  But this week they are home v. Wolves.  I might captain him.  His performances have been strong and he never stops running.  An unfortunate habit of running his mouth and stupid, petty fouls does not diminish his potential against a weak team at home.

I will look to do a GW preview Friday.

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