The international break gives us some time to assess the FF season so far with 18% of the season in the books. First a few general trends then a team by team look. None of this is likely to be particularly original or surprising but the season so far has given us some trends with only a bit of a GW7 glimpse that these trends may change.This will be a 2-part entry.
1. Manchester rules. To put this starkly, 7 of the top 9 FF scorers so far are in a blue or red Manchester shirt (and 1 of the 2 others is the uber-expensive and occasionally rested Lampard). And if there is anything to suggest this might end, I haven't seen it. If you don't have 3 from Rooney, Aguero, A.Young, Silva, Nani, Nasri, Dzeko, you are probably chasing your minileague leader by some distance. The only caveat here, is rotation and injury. Rooney has missed a game due to injury and Aguero left the last MNC game on 27 minutes with a groin injury. And we have seen Nasri, A.Young and probably Dzeko are real rotation risks. I wouldn't necessarily drop any of these players if you have them, but just be prepared for the occasional rotation disappointment and select your captain and vice captain choices carefully.
2. Budget or undervalued defenders have freed up cash for the expensive attacking players. Anybody who gambled on Boswinga or Jones or gambled on Enrique's switch to Liverpool has seen a real payoff as these 'budget' defenders on top teams were given starts and produced, and meanwhile the likes of NWC and SWN defenders, and the frequently OOP WW defender Stephen Ward, have freed up money for those Manchester big boys. There are lots of value buys in the 5.0 or less category in defense on teams perfectly capable of home CSs and with so many higher priced attackers hitting on all cylinders it's hard to justify a Terry or Evra or Lescott. Ditto on GKs as well. Top of the GK table are . . . Mikel Vorm and Asmir Begovic.
3. The 'star' model rules the early season. There are a couple of schools of thought - with some variations obviously - on how to set up your team but the 2 are, basically: (1) the 'rotation model' - pick 15 players that you expect to play depending on home/away or weak/strong fixtures. This strategy tends to mean you have 2 or 3 less expensive forwards/midfielders and 2 or 3 more budget guys who are starters for bottom/mid-table teams who you can rotate in as fixtures dictate. (2) the 'star model' - you go for as many expensive choices as your budget allows and you fill in your squad with cut-rate guys who may or may not play or guys who play regularly but score poorly (e.g., Tiote or Barry Ferguson last year). This means you are typically locked into a formation (3-4-3; 3-5-2) to ensure your expensive guys play every game. The second model is the hands down winner so far this year, especially since there are so many good performing cut-rate defenders which permit you to afford the more expensive attacking players we love to leave in our sides. The other thing weighing heavily against the 'rotation model' is the lack of out-of-left-field budget options in midfield or forward who are exploding on the stage a la Charlie Adams from last year. By my quick count, there are only 2 midfielders under 6.0 in the top 20 midfield scorers and only 2 under 6.0 forwards in the top 10 forward scorers.
4. It was only one week . . . but GW7 may portend some changes to all 3 of the above trends. A number of players emerged as under 7.0 options with the potential for further reward, based on past performances. In midfield you could look at Scott Sinclair(SWN) who, after a slow start, has 2 goals in his last 3 games. He was huge for SWN in their promotion campaign and with free kicks and pens in his locker, you'd expect he will be in that 130-140 points area when the season is over. Danny Murphy (FUL) plays every game for FUL, is on pens and is a bit of a BP magnet (52 in the last 3 yrs, 5 so far this year). He's a stead-eddy sort of player whose returns may not match GW7 very often but he did rack up 150 points 3 years ago. At forward, Gabby Agbonlahor reemerged this week (kudos to my friend Bretto d'Maestro for calling this one very early on) but after a stop-start season last year under Houllier, there is no reason to think that Agbonlahor won't resume where he left off - in the 4 years prior to last, he scored 144, 158, 146, and 146 FF points. Another who stepped up this past week was Nikolas Bendtner (SUN). Although he will be sitting this coming GW because of his loan arrangement with ARS, I think Bendtner's prospects this season are excellent, I think he'll be in that 12-13 goal area. Often pushed out on the right wing for ARS, a postion that always seemed particularly unsuitable for Bendtner, his 'goals to minutes played' ratio over the last few years was very good and with service from Seb Larsson, I think the Dane may emerge as a real mid-price bargain. There are others - even 2 super budget prospects, Andy Johnson and Danny Graham grabbed goals, so the trends above may yet change.
But you get the idea - if Manchester's big boys' form falls or rotation/injury take a big bite out of their performances, budget options may start to emerge.
I'll have a few more general comments next time and then a look at the teams.
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