Thursday, October 13, 2011

Early season assessment, Part 3

With news filtering in on the return of many players from internationals, and anticipation high for GW8, we take a look at the rest of the teams.  But first . . . an editorial comment on the US national team. 

I didn't see the Honduras game but winning 1-0 over the C team from Honduras  - and scoring only the second goal in Klinsman's 4 game tenure - is nothing to get excited about.  And then they were poor against Ecuador in a 1-0 loss.  Honestly, just poor.  They created nothing but what might be charitably referred to as "half-chances".  And I don't know what new system Klinsman is trying to instill, but the US looked a poorer version of the old US - lots of balls lumped forward from Howard and the defenders; a midfield incapable of possessing the ball (with Bradley in the second half the one exception); and a front line lacking creativity and finishing ability (with Dempsey, who is, in fact, a midfielder, the one player willing to take defenders on).  Klinsman's failure to give Bradley a nailed on spot in the team says it all for me.  And then you had  the ESPN2 commentators - led by the idiotic Alexi Lalas - raving about the "positives" to take from the match.  And Klinsman's post game interview was a lesson in fantasy.  Jurgen - we can see; we're not soccer novices anymore.  Fans here watch European games, Mexican games, and MLS and have now for 20 years.  So, please, don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining.

Back to FF:
Newcastle.  The reward for early season investment in NWC defenders will continue for a couple more weeks, as NWC play 3 of the next 4 at home.  But then . . . Stoke away in GW10, then MNC and MUN away and CHE at home.  If you've doubled down on Krul and another defender, you may want to shed one of the 2 after Wigan visit in GW9.   The attacking assets here are all of the budget variety.  I keep waiting for Cabaye to become the next big thing in budget midfielders, but it hasn't happened yet and so far, his stats don't suggest he is someone to gamble on just yet.  Ba was very good in half a year at West Ham last year and since Pardew has brought him back to the starting line-up he has produced.  Good value at 6.2.

Norwich.  Not much to care about in this side unless you are looking for rock bottom budget guys just in case your starters unexpectedly don't play.  You can look over this roster and find bottom-basement budget guys everywhere but not anyone you'd say 'gee, that's a good rotation candidate'.

QPR.  They've been absolutely tonked twice, once home and once away, but also have 3 CS, so consistency is not a watermark for this team.  But with enough good results in the book, you'd be OK thinking a few on this team are good guys to have in rotation with others in your team: Kenny, Ferdinand, Gabbidon(when fit), Barton, Taraabt, Faurlin(his Opta stats are impressive and he is 5.0), SWP all look OK to have in your team so long as you have rotation candidates to match the QPR schedule.

Stoke.  Their home results against the likes of CHE, LIV, and MNU suggest the Stoke defense is for real.  So, Begovic, Woodgate(@ 4.5 and seemingly targeted for EPL action only by Pulis) and Shawcross look good value.  Going forward, Stoke have 4 goals, so the options here are less inviting but with 4 of the next 6 at home - and all inviting games - you would expect things to pick up.  If Etherington can return to fitness (injections for his back this week ?) he is a good value.  Walters seems to have cemented his place in the side and at 6.0 is good value as an OOP as a listed midfielder.  I've always liked Pennant (5.8) and if Etherington is missing he was on some free kicks last year, and might pick up those duties again.

Sunderland.  Another team which has had an up and down season which has included some surprise losses and a 4-0 beatdown of Stoke.  Again, some good options in rotation if you are looking to get all 15 players in your team involved.  Mignolet rotates well with Krul, Kenny or Al-Habsi; W.Brown, O'Shea.  In attack, I really like Larsson, who scored for Sweden as well this week.  He's got a great target now in Bendtner and has free kick duties. A slight price rise to 6.6.  I'm a big fan of Bendtner, and although he has to sit this week v. ARS, I think he is a potential 12-14 goal scorer this year, based on his statistics from prior years.  Sessegnon, after a lot of preseason hype on some FF websites, has been a bust.  I've seen Sunderland only once this year and the lad was awful.  Awful.  The manager has talked about moving him in the formation a bit the Frenchman will have to prove a lot before I bite.

Swansea.  The new boys have established a decent defensive reputation and if you don't have Vorm as your GK, anyone across the back 4 looks good value.  One player who might be a bit under the radar coming off injury is Gary Monk, who, I think, was the team captain and was a nailed on starter in the promotion campaign til injury interrupted his season.  He's 4.0 and has 2 CS in 3 starts.  There are some real bargains in midfield too - Scott Sinclair was all the rage in FF preseason teams, and is starting to come good.  But there are 2 bargain basement choices here too - Nathan Dyer has been swept up by lots of managers and has seen his price rise to 4.8.  But perhaps a better bargain is Joe Allen, a Welsh national team player - played a part in every SWN game, including starts in the last 3 where he has bagged 2 assists.  Oh, and he's 4.5.  I still like Danny Graham as a budget forward if you aren't going with 3 high priced forwards.  He broke his scoring duck last GW and I would expect 10 goals or so this season.

Tottenham.  The usual suspects here. Van der Vaert and Adebayor.  I think it's worth looking at Gareth Bale.  While VdV seems to constantly be carrying the threat of a hamstring problem, Bale's Opta numbers are terrific.  I also think Modric is a bit underrated as a FF prospect.  At 8.0 he might be a bit overpriced, but you might pay that for consistency.  If he has a relatively injury free season, his history suggests he'll be north of  135 points this season.  With Adebayor at 8.5, you'd prefer him to similarly priced Defoe, but I think Adebayor is one of the premier strikers in EPL and if Harry can keep him motivated, 8.5 represents a bargain.  I love Freidel but I think all of the TOT defense is overpriced.

WBA.  FF darling Ben Foster has 2 CS in 7, despite a brutal opening 2 games, and he remains good value for me if he is in rotation with another bargain GK.  The Baggies play 4 of the next 6 at home.  One intriguing defender is Gareth McAuley who has started 2 straight games at CB.  At 4.0, he might turn out to be a good squad defender.  Probably worth monitoring over the next few GWs to insure he has taken over Tamas' spot.  In attack, the Baggies have suffered from injury with reliables like Chris Brunt and Peter Odemwingie missing games.  Shane Long at 6.0 with 3 goals looks a decent budget forward, and I understand Hodgson is experimenting with a 4-3-3 which might make the likes of a Jerome Thomas more appealing  but right now WBA looks a no-go FF area until the line-up settles.

Wigan.  The few, the proud, the brave, have hung on (by my count 40,000 managers have dropped him this season) to Mr. All-Preseason, Victor Moses.  His Opta stats remain promising.  I think, well, I hope, he comes good.  But I have hedged my bets; prior to my GW7 wildcard, Moses was part of a Stoosher home/away rotation with Martin Petrov.  No more - he is now purely a squad guy in the event a Stoosher starter is ruled out.  From all reports Wigan is a small town which has suffered substantial economic decline, the team plays on a rugby ground and seem to have no more than 12-15,000 committed supporters, but have a completely irrepressible, positive manager who wants to play good football, so I have a bit of a soft spot for Wigan.  Aside from a very good budget value GK in Al-Habsi, 2 other names are worth mentioning: Ben Watson in midfield, at 5.4, is on free kicks, and, so far as I can tell pens; and Franco Di Santo at 5.7 - who, in the absence of Rodellega, has popped in 3 goals.  Wigan are wildly inconsistent and don't keep many CSs so I would avoid the defense (aside from Al-Habsi).  That said, they have a very good 6 game run ahead where they don't play anybody who would particularly scare you.  Could they grab 6-7 goals in that stretch ? Possible.

Wolves.  Wolves started the season like gang busters . . . but have now lost 4 straight and scored only 6 goals all season.  I can't imagine Mick McCarthy won't get the ship righted and WW seem to have a slew of good budget options - even if they haven't panned out yet.  Hennessey is a terrific GK and works well in tandem with, say, Begovic or Mignolet or Foster. Ditto defenders like Berra and the frequently OOP Stephen Ward.  Roger Johnson at a higher price comes with some goal threat.  I am going to fight through the prejudice I gained watching Wolves in a completely turgid performance against Villa, and remain positive on WW budget assets.  Jamie O'Hara is a past favorite of Stooshers, with both Pompey and Wolves, and his Opta stats are really, really good.  So if you are in a 'stick or twist' dilemma with him in your team I say: stick.  Same with Jarvis and Hunt.  I am also a huge FF fan of Stephen Fletcher.  He has 3 goals this year despite missing a game and not starting another, and he scored 10 goals last season in the equivalent of 15 games.  And his price has dropped  to 6.1.  The best value for a budget forward out there, imo.

So, there you have it lads, the early season assessment on all the teams.  Good luck as we head through the first turn.

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