Pondering Team Issues

Happy Thanksgiving !  Absolutely my favorite holiday.  A whole day given over to beer, wine, and good food . . . and my beloved Detroit Lions.  Oh well, next year.  I am pretty decent at cooking the holiday turkey and here's the key; 325 oven, breast side down for the first hour (1 1/2 hours for a big one), then flip the bird (to coin an expression) to breast side up for the last 2, 2 1/2 hours.  And use a 1/4 lb butter for basting.  Anyway . . . .

This is a bit self indulgent, but this is a post (edited a bit) I sent to a friend trying to to sort some ideas about my team.  The hardest thing for me as a FF manager is  - patience.  I hate, hate, hate, not using my weekly free transfer even as I see that the best way forward is to hold it for 2 "frees" the following GW.  And I often used to take point hit transfers to "perfect" my team for the current GW. Ouch, how often does that work ?   I've only taken  a single -4 point hit this year, but my lack of patience (WC?, GW7, thank you.) probably explains why, despite obsessive FF focus, I have failed to ever crack the top 1000 and have consistently finished between 33,000 and 72,000 in the world rankings the last 5 years . . .

 Here's my team if you care to play FF fix-my-team manager - I use the slash (/) for players I rotate home away, and parens (  ) for a pure squad guy - this year I have played 3-4-3 almost exclusively -   
Vorm/Schwarzer
Enrique, Simpson/Monk, Warnock/Woodgate
Silva, Nani, VdV, Ramsey, (Moses)
RvP, Adebayor, Sturridge.(0.4 bank)

1.  I have a squad guy (Moses) who starts every game, plays 90 minutes every game, has reasonable underlying stats to support his position as a squad mid, but no end product, unless you count the 2 points you get for putting in a shift.  There are 16 mids priced at <5.2 with more points.  Not all of them start consistently, but you get the idea. 

 

 I have a 6.5 midfielder (Ramsey) who seems the very definition of the assister to the assist guy.  There are 15 mids at <6.7 scoring better than or equal to Ramsey.  None of them have RvP in their sides (um, yes, that's a knock on Ramsey as a FF option).

 

2.  I have 2 defenders who just don't look like pulling their weight; Warnock @ 5.1 and Woodgate @ 4.4.  And I am including Warnock only because he is 5.1.  There are 13 - 13! - defenders priced <5.3 with more FF points.  So, Warnock is simply overpriced.  And has the schedule from hell through the New Year holiday.  Woodgate is another problem.  He's missed 2 matches since I've brought him in and Stoke have lost the plot in defense.  So his value as a 'nailed on' defender in a sturdy home defense is completely gone.  He is deadweight. The only reason he hasn't dropped in price is managers have other priorities and may be hoping against hope (i) he is restored to the starting 11 and (ii) Stoke find the plot. But Woodgate, even if restored this week, looks a risk.

 

3.  All my disposable bank (the higher value players I am willing to drop to pull out cash) + 0.4 in my actual bank, are in VdV and Sturridge.  For reasons that may or may not be obvious, Nani, Silva, RvP, and Adebayor are Stoosher untouchables at this point.  Nani is the obvious question mark, but I am not willing to give up on MNU attacking potential, especially given their upcoming schedule. 

 

The big move I have been contemplating is Bale>>VdV, which pulls out 2.0.  At first blush, Bale/Adebayor seems like plenty of Tottenham coverage through the DGW and beyond.  And, again, first blush, you'd think - well, Bale will be within shouting distance of VdV in FF point total at the end of the day, so here's 2.0 I can comfortably pull out. 

 

Until you look at a comparison of last year.  Last year: VdV - 13G,9A, 165 pts in 2200+ min.; Bale, in his first full season as a mid last year: 7G, 3A, 118 pts in 2400+ min. VdV was worth 47 more points in 200+ fewer minutes.  And since VdV is not being called upon in Europa League, you'd expect his minutes to increase and thereby his value vis-a-vis Bale.  The caveat to last year's numbers are the points total this year and the Opta stats as configured on the Members section of FFS.  And there Bale looks good value, essentially equaling VdV in the various attacking categories - except goals and goal attempts.  The other kicker here is that VdV is actually a greater differential across the game than Bale - VdV owned by 16.9% of managers, Bale 22.2% (probably price related).  So, has Bale 'improved" this year or are the Opta stats skewed by a 4 GW run of form ? 

 

On such conclusions does a FF manager's success hang.

 

The other "bank", if you will, Sturridge, is not much bank unless I am willing to drop to a budget 'squad' forward for my 3rd forward - Morison, Graham, Helguson are the names I would look at, all with good underlying stats per Members/FFS.  The upside to this group of budget forwards (as opposed to Moses so far) is that they have all shown they can score in this league and when called upon by an unexpected rotation or injury to one of my other players, might give me more than 2 points.  All 3 can also be used in rotation with a budget mid too. 

 

The downside of budget forwards is that (i) their teams tend not to score too much (SWN(only Wigan have scored fewer goals), QPR, NOR are all very comfortably in the bottom third of goals in the league) and (ii) when they lose form, they get dropped.  Both Morison and Graham have seen significant bench time and Helguson couldn't get a look-in until 3 other forwards failed or were injured.  The downside to using Sturridge as a bank is that the plan is fairly irrevocable.  It's hard to replace a benched forward in the 4.9 price range without major surgery on your team.  The other issue, simply, is that there are so many high-priced forwards with massive upside that it seems an incredible waste not to use your "squad" position in defense or midfield.

 

The more significant downside I see is I would be giving up Chelsea's second leading goal scorer who is currently priced near budget terms himself.  Remember, Sturridge was suspended and did not play Chelsea's first 3 games. So, it seems counterintuitive to drop Chelsea's second leading scorer until (i) Chelsea drop attacking form (as opposed to defensive form which has been poor; Chelsea are the 3rd highest goal scorers in EPL along with ARS) or (ii) AVB decides to drop Sturridge.  After Torres' and Drogba's failures so far, it seems far more likely Sturridge may be handed a central role than dropped. 

 

4.  If I could find the money, what are my 2 priorities?  This is simple.  No. 1 priority- replace either Warnock/Woodgate with a quality nailed on defender (preferably with some offensive upside) from a 'top 4' (the term 'top 4' is used euphemistically to represent a CL qualifying level defense) side who can consistently deliver CS points and limit my exposure to 1 point defenders.  A starter list  - Richards, Kompany, Jones, (or Luiz (yes, I think CHE are perfectly capable of CS against the EPL riff/raff) if he looks nailed on), slightly pricier  - Vermaelen - even pricier - Evra (MNU only nailed on defender aside from the 7.8 Vidic - some times you have to pay for consistency). The math is not complicated: Richards is on 54 points.  Project that out over 38 games. 

 

I am also looking at Skrtel.  Some might argue that it's foolish to double down on team defense (I have Enrique) but I would argue that it doesn't matter, at the end of the day, if you have 2 defenders with 12+ CS, so long as you are OK that some weeks you'll get 12+ out of those 2 positions but more often 4 points (or less).  At the end of the day, who cares if  your 12+ CS come in bunches or are split amongst players from different teams?

 

Perhaps the most intriguing option for me for a 'top 4' defender is Gael Clichy.  Massive bargain at 5.7.  But, he has been occasionally rotated with Kolarov in the Prem.  But, I watched the Man City v. Napoli CL match . . . Kolarov had a fucking nightmare at Napoli this week.  And if, as it looks, Man City are headed to Europa, and the focus becomes the Premier League title, doesn't it make sense for Mancini to start Clichy in the prem and leave Kolarov's "What, me, defend?" act to Europa and domestic cup competition.  Well, that's what I would do. 

 

My No. 2 priority was . . . Dzeko.  This may seem odd, but Manchester City show no signs of  slowing down and I'm not having trouble seeing them average 2.9/3.0 goals per game this year (current avg. = 3.5 gpg). Failing to have 2 attacking Man City players seems almost criminally negligent.  (A sort of half-position would be to bite on Milner, Adam Johnson, or Toure - even Johnson scores more than Ramsey on a ppm basis.  And given the paucity of demonstratable mid-priced midfield production this year, why not gamble on the odd big week from Milner/Johnson or the steady, consistent points of  YayaToure ?)  But I digress . . .  

 

As to Dzeko . . . if you think that Richards/Kompany will give you 150+ points this year (as I do), and Dzeko continues to be rotated - and constitutes, therefore - really only  2/3 of a player, shouldn't I be thinking the slow but steady accumulation of Richards/Kompany over the sturm und drang of Dzeko ?

 

So you see my difficulty.  VdV and Sturridge seem good value and I am loath to drop them.  But with Warnock not pulling the weight of his price tag and Woodgate now apparently deadweight, and 2 mids not even close to pulling their weight, maybe it's time to . . .

 

 . . . think outside the box and gamble.  And  use . . . Ramsey as my bank ?  Surely RvP is all the Arsenal coverage I need.  That means adding a second budget mid, someone in the 5.0 range to pull the funds necessary to add the 'top 4' defender I am looking for.  Right now, this seems the way forward for my team.  Faurlin, Allen, Gowen, Dyer (I have Vorm/Monk, so a SWN mid seems overkill), B.Johnson, Houlahan (preseason hype, largely forgotten, still has good numbers), Eagles (rotates well with Moses), O'Hara (numbers scream "pick me!" @ 5.7).  Another name in the mix in this price range is Rodwell(2G, 1A).  Currently on a rib injury, Everton have, perhaps, the best schedule through GW20 (a DGW for EVE) in the Prem.

 

My point here is, with Manchester (blue/red), Liverpool and Newcastle goal parsimony, and with forwards like Rooney, RvP, Aguero, Suarez, Adebayor, Hernandez, Dzeko, and even dropping down to mid-price guys like Sturridge, Ba, Bendtner, Zamora, why go bargain basement at forward when you can go bargain basement in midfield with nailed on 90 minute guys with some potential upside ?

 

I am holding my transfer this week, an accomplishment in and of itself, but Stooshers are taking a hard look at another budget mid so as to fit a premium defender in, especially as we get into the holiday fixture glut and those nil-nils seem to add up.