The Takeaway from GW13

1.  On a personal note, BPs for Monk, Sturridge, and Adebayor, helped me nose across the 60 point mark and move to 5th in my minileague (and nearly 100,000 in the world, woo-hoo!), despite RvP's first bust week in a while.  His 2-pointer raises questions early on about the armband for GW14.  Arsenal @ Wigan seems tailormade for goals but with Adebayor and Bale (Tot v. Bol); and Silva (Man City v. Nor), my preference for home captains might win out.  You also wonder whether Wenger might see a Wigan team near the bottom of the table as an opportunity to rest RvP ahead of the holiday fixture glut.  Probably not away, but the thought has to come into our thinking.

2. I think Everton should be in managers' thinking.  The 2-0 tonking of a 10 man Bolton @ the Reebok, doesn't suggest Everton will go on to start scoring for fun but  . . . look at the schedule through GW20: STK, ars, NOR, SWN, sun, wba, BOL/tot.  4 very winnable home games, and 2 away where you wouldn't expect Everton to have much fear.  And you will expect Moyes to go to Arsenal and to Tottenham with his usual approach to top teams  - 'see if you can break us down' - an approach that has had some success in the past. This stretch has the potential for 3+ CSs and some goals.  Everton don't have the firepower to blow teams away and no one looks like scoring 12-14 goals this year on this team, but this is the sort of stretch where at least 1 Everton player seems a must.  Head of the list, though his price makes me choke, is Leighton Baines.  Even 2 clean sheets in this stretch plus his goal/assist/BP threat (on pens and LF free kicks), and with 6% ownership, means you have a differential who could pull you out of your minileague midtable doldrums.  The other names that jump out at you are all a bit of a gamble:  Howard rotates really well with Vorm over the near term but is pricey for a GK; Hibbert is the cheapest way into the defense but hovers just above that 4.5 'budget' label.  Jagielka is the safe option here but comes at a price premium for a team who so far haven't kept a lot of CSs.  But, for a 6 week flyer, maybe. 
In attacking terms, it's a real crapshoot.  Cahill looks to be playing himself into shape and made a nice assist on Saturday;  Drenthe looked like he was vying for flavor of the month but has been dropped twice since his 16 FF point game against Fulham a few weeks back; Osman gets starts but rarely seems to get more than 2 points for turning up.  The one name I like here is injured: Jack Rodwell @ 5.3.  Nailed on for starts and with 2 goals so far, he seems like a cheap, easy in.  I am not planning to do the surgery necessary for Baines, so I may wait til GW16 for an Everton player but I don't think you can look past the schedule with a team that has a very good record against lesser teams this year.

3.  Chelsea.  The big name, big budget forwards are crapping all over their reputations  but Chelsea sit 3rd in the league in goals scored and have 2 recent clean sheets.  I think you've got to think in terms of at least 1 attacking Chelsea player in a team that scores like they do.  Sturridge has been inconsistent in terms of FF points from week to week but not in terms of goal scoring  - 6 goals in 10 games, he missed the first 3 through suspension. He is Chelsea's highest scoring forward and tied with Lampard for leading goal scorer on this team.  Mata had a big week this week and has been pretty steady since joining Chelsea.  Nailed on for starts too.  I think, like David Silva, he is only going to get better in this league.  Despite his rotation risk, I wouldn't drop Lampard if I had him; massive differential right now (5% ownership) for a guy who has averaged 198 points a year for the last 5 years.  AVB has rotated him out twice this year, but even at 2400/2500 min this year, Lampard looks likes a 175 point guy.  If you don't have the budget for Mata or Lampard, Ramires doesn't look bad value given the dearth of value in the midfield midprice range.  Appears nailed on for starts, and only Larsson, Sessegnon, Sinclair and Walters are scoring more for guys in his price range who start every week.
I also think you have to start thinking about either Ivanovic or Luiz (2 starts in a row, 6.3), as it looks like AVB's preferred back 4 is Ivanovic, Luiz, Terry, A.Cole.  Chelsea's defense has not been up to its usual standards but they have 2 CS in the last 3 games and have a bazillion games where they conceded just once - they may not be far off a CS run.

4.  Swansea.  Another home clean sheet in a game perhaps played at a subdued level after news of Gary Speed's apparent suicide.  Michel Vorm is in well over a 1/4 of FF teams, but it sure doesn't look like doubling down when Swansea are home is the worst call.  In addition to Vorm, I have gambled on team captain Monk @ 4.0 and 13 points between he and Vorm helped assuage the pain of  another Woodgate MIA.

5.  Aston Villa have 4 clean sheets (2 home, 2 away) but are in with a whole host of teams which have conceded 15-17 goals this year, very mediocre.  I expected McLeish to have Villa at or near the top in goals conceded rankings this year.  Not so much.  Still 4 clean sheets is nothing to sneeze at.  But . . . Villa's schedule is perhaps the worst in the EPL over the next 6 and as a Stephen Warnock owner, priced above budget - but with some offensive potential, I have a decision to make; bench him (and his 5.1 price tag) until GW20 (SWN), gamble that McLeish will pull a ZERO out of the hat against 1 of MNU, LIV, or ARS - or sell him on for a more budget friendly rotatable defender. The 20% of teams with Shay Given have the same decision to make, although Given is probably in line for a shed load of save points.

6.  I was wondering how Man City's goals per game (3.5 gpg through GW12) would come down and I guess it will be the odd game against a really solid defense like Liverpool's (best GA in the league along with MNC and NWC).  Aguero looked human for the first time in a while, and while the combustible Balotelli insured Man City would defend for the final 10 minutes, Man City were on the back foot for most of the second half.  I still think Silva (must own) + 1 from Richards, Kompany, Aguero, Dzeko is a really, really good idea (with Hart, Clichy, Milner, or YaYa Toure decent 2nd player options as well) but I also wonder whether Man City may be headed for a patch of so-so play with the CL disappointment settling in. 
As for Liverpool, tough one.  Enrique (33%) is popular, as he should be in a team conceding only 12 goals so far, but who else ?  As Liverpool's back 4 settles (G.Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Enrique - is Carragher being eased out ala Hyppia ??), I am giving some thought to doubling down on the Liverpool defense, via Skrtel @ 6.0.  In terms of attacking players, I am still a massive fan of Suarez who I think will come good in a big, big way at some point.  Beyond that Charlie Adam @ 8.8 ?  If you can go there price wise, why not Tottenham's Bale ?

7.  Sunderland have a GF/GA differential of 0 which suggests they should be sitting in the top half of the table, if you assume goal differential usually translates to league standing (as my good friend ForzaInter points out to me).  But results have not gone Steve Bruce's way and he is under the kosh.  Bendtner has slipped out of the top 10 FF point getters for forwards <7.0 but Sessegnon and Larsson look very good value for mids in the <7.0 price range.  And Sunderland have an okay 3 CSs, so for 4.5 or 4.3 W.Brown and Michael Turner look decent value, as does their GK, Keiren Westwood @ 4.4.  Decent schedule through GW20 too (ww, BLA, tot, qpr, EVE, MNC, wig).  If Sunderland can win 1 away and 2 home in this stretch they move back to midtable mediocrity where their GD suggests they belong.  I would move Bendtner out for Ba or a number of other options if your model is 2 monster forwards and a cheapie, but the other 5 listed above should generate the points a value option in a mid to top10 team you would expect.

8.  Tottenham roll on.  I have Adebayor who I regarded as a massive value when I bought him at 8.0 and even now at 8.7.  One of the top forwards in EPL a few years ago, he has been in manager purgatory for 2 years.  But with the backing of Redknapp and a steady supply of service, he looks a 16-20 goal scorer to me.  On the basis of VdV's problematic hamstring, I swapped Bale in for VdV this week to save some cash to shore up my defense, but I don't see how anyone looks at Tottenham's schedule through GW20 (a DGW) and doesn't get in 2-3 Tottenham lads.

9.  Finally, Bolton, Blackburn, Wigan, Wolves, all look like it's difficult to find FF options, except the odd spot rotation candidate.  Maybe Eagles, maybe O'Hara, maybe Ward, maybe Hoillet.  With the shining exception of Victor Moses !  Finally the cream rises and Moses comes through with an "assist" (heel was clipped in the box, awarded a pen) and a BP, will Moses lead us to the promised land ?  I can't wait til he comes off my bench for one of my rested starts over the holiday glut and pinches me a double figure.  Then I'll be laughing at all you of little faith  . . . but for those of you looking to jump on the Moses bandwagon, the only team with a worse near term schedule than Villa's is  . . . Wigan's.