Like an ancient Etruscan, I am trying to divine the bargain priced Chris Smalling's future by searching the entrails of today's lineup from the BBC's Live Text -
Man Utd: De Gea, Smalling, Vidic, Ferdinand, Evra, Park, Giggs, Jones, Young, Nani, Rooney. Subs: Lindegaard, Evans, Welbeck, Fletcher, Valencia, Macheda, Gibson.
Does this tell us that this is SAF's favored line-up in a 'must win' (as surely the Wolves encounter this weekend is a must win) and, therefore, Smalling is nailed on as the RB on the weekend ? Ferdinand has now started a few fair games in a row, so does this tell us that Ferdinand will probably be dropped on the weekend so as not to aggravate his back; therefore one of P.Jones or J.Evans will start at CB v. Wolves, thereby cementing Smalling at RB ? Does this tell us that Smalling is in danger of benching on the weekend, having got 2 straight starts - on the theory following P.Jones' recent benching - that SAF is following a '2-3 starts/1 game off' strategy, meaning Smalling is next for the bench ? Is there some other meaning for Chis Smalling's future that I cannot discern here having no access to a manual of the ancient art ?
My kingdom for a true Etruscan Haruspex . . . ah, the lost arts.
It's a tricky situation. Also to consider is that with Vidic out United are more susceptible to letting in goals.
ReplyDeleteJones is probably your best bet but I'm tempted by both Smalling and Evans, again going for value.
Gummi - The loss of Vidic throws a monkey-wrench into the works for me. I had planned to save my "free" this week and move for Vidic next week. Now, obviously, I am looking at a cheaper alternative. A big question mark to me is how good Man Utd are defensively without Vidic. I want to dig around a bit and see if I can find the stats on CS for Man Utd - with/without Vidic - for the last few years (there are probably enough FF junkies on the internet that someone has kept/published the numbers). He has started 6 games so far this year, 4 CS. In the 8 games he didn't start, Man Utd kept 3. A third of a season is an awfully smallish sample and part of the 4 CS in 6 games may be down to SAF refocusing the team's defense/organization after the Man City debacle. But it wouldn't surprise me if those numbers - 66% when he's in, 37.5% when he's not - aren't in the ballpark. I may go for Smalling or Evans but I hate having a player in my squad who is not nailed on for starts over the holiday fixture glut because you know some of the big hitters will be rested once or twice and you need squad guys to come on.
ReplyDeleteI may also change my focus and go for a bargain basement budget guy for Warnock to find some cash and look for someone in Vidic's price range - Yaya Toure comes to mind - for a double transfer next week. But the loss of Vidic changes my near term plans pretty drastically. If the numbers indicate Man Utd are still a good bet w/o Vidic, their schedule is pretty handy through early January, and Smalling and Evans become decent bets.
I agree. I sold my United defender before their CS run (indicative of my FF play this season), and had planned to get in Jones, Smalling, or Vidic.
ReplyDeleteVidic's injury makes me hesitant.
Perhaps we can help each other find the statistics? It would be fun to have a little cooperative pet project.
I realized after I posted the comment that Vidic played every league game or thereabouts last year. So you'd have to go back to 2009-10 when he had 2100 min. So you'd have to grind through a table of MUN's games/line-ups to figure it out. This year's first 14 games is a smallish sample but I wouldn't be surprised if Vidic improves MUN's CS chances by 30% as the numbers this year suggest (66% when he starts, 37.5% when he doesn't). Still, even 37.5% is a pretty strong number for CS: that's 14+ projected out over a season.
ReplyDeleteI may take a gamble on Evans. At 4.4, he's (1)a budget defender on (2) a side with a great near term schedule; (3) a team which has a good history of CS even w/o Vidic; and (4)the clincher - Evans started every week but one when Vidic was out. Evans comes in for a ton of criticism by supporters but the only guy I care about having confidence in him is SAF.
Yup, I've thought about Evans. If he is able to get you 10+ CS a season he's an absolute bargain.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is that I've got a sneaking suspicion that he is one of the biggest problems in the United defence. So you could say that he adds a negative percentage to the CS equation.
I could be wrong, but I'm also tempted by Evans. Next gameweek I could be looking to trade him in.