ON Friday night/Saturday morning, we drove the 10 1/2 hours to Houghton, Michigan for a long weekend, and so the only game I saw was the Monday Fulham v. Liverpool game, which included the only soccer goal my brother in law has ever seen as he indulged my soccer insanity (hockey rules in Houghton - we watched the Houghton HS Gremlins (!) win the Joe Buck tournament in an unheated hockey arena Saturday afternoon). Luckily Sirius radio carried the Chelsea early game Saturday, then the Arsenal game. Sturridge's late goal was met by a huge yell as we skirted Lake Superior on Hwy 28 in light snow and swirling wind. And as we turned inland at Marquette and headed north, RvP's point haul assured a satisfying drive. Houghton is the sort of place where 8 inches of snow is met with shrugs and tilts of the head and comments like "light dusting". When it's followed by 4" the next day, the locals don't even blink. It has been known to snow for 80 straight days in Houghton.
An 84 point haul - my best in a long, long time, saw me move to 2nd in my minileague and 60,000+ in the world, a massive jump. This is not to gloat; I'm among the probable 30% + of managers who captained van Persie and had Bale in their team, so not much genius involved. But let's get to what we can take from the weekend.
1. Manchested United, 1-0 masters. Manchester United's scores in their last 5 league games, since the Man City beatdown: 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1 (dubious Ba PK), 1-0. If you don't have a MUN defender (sheepily raises hand) you better get one because the schedule points to 4-5 more in the next 7 (WOL, qpr, ful, WIG, BLA, nwc, BOL). The holiday glut and the liklihood that Ferdinand won't play every game, means there may be some chance for Smalling (5.2) to play a bunch of these games; Jones' (6.4 and rising) flexibility means he is good value. I don't think swapping in de Gea/Lindegaard as your GK combo is the worst call in the world either. But, as I am about to make the case in Takeaway No. 2, Vidic strikes me as the best value: nailed on and a triple threat(goals/CS/BP). Heck, if Ferdinand is over his back issues, and starts 5 of these games, whose to say those 5 might not all be CS ? You pay a slight premium for Evra (only 1 great FF season in his history, although, tbf, he's on a 150 point pace). In short, as your budget permits, at least one MUN defender seems de riguer.
2. The case for triple threat defenders. I have found the case for budget defenders you rotate home/away or for favorable fixtures pretty compelling the last 2 years. My minileague leader, the Mighty Gustavonator, has made this case for years. And FPL Chris has put a numbers crunch to the analysis. But . . . I think a case is to be made for a subset of defender, one who constitutes a 'triple threat': (i) goal/assist threat; (ii) Clean Sheet threat; (iii) Bonus Point threat - and (iv) a nailed on starter. The initial point in the analysis is the dirth of midfielders in the midprice range (aside from Bale) who are justifying the price above a high end budget guy like Walters (who started at 6.0) or Murphy. The second point in the analysis is that there are a number of < 8.0, some < 7.0, defenders who offer a 'triple threat' whose history and threat make them pretty good value if you are willing to tinker with your FF team formation. Based on history, I would suggest the following defenders are worth looking at - Baines, Vidic, Vermaelen, and Terry. Baines has averaged 3G, 10A the past 2 seasons; 138 and 178 points respectively. Not as strong a CS prospect as the others, but compare his total historical FF numbers compare pretty favorably to more expensive options like Walcott, Arteta, even Bale. A terrific schedule through the Vidic, in his 2 seasons with 2900+ minutes has 9 goals. Vidic is a BP magnet and MUN have a substantial CS history and seem especially committed to keeping it tight at the back since the Man City blow-out. Vermaelen has a substantial injury history but may constitute the best of this group. 7 goals in his 1 full season (even that was a 30 game season), 3 goals this year since his return from injury; Arsenal have 5 CS this year and a good past history. John Terry is currently the leading point getter for defenders; Chelsea have a really strong CS history and 3 in their last 4 in the EPL. Terry has 4 goals already, which is well above his historical average, so maybe it's not fair to expect further goal returns, but there are 24 games left. There are some 'bargains', if you will, in the triple threat category but who, maybe, lack history or are not quite nailed on just yet as guaranteed starters but who may have substantial upside. The most obvious is Phil Jones who has seen a substantial price rise; but here are a few others who represent some risk to go with their potential: massive bargain/massive risk candidate: Chris Smalling (5.2). Back from injury and started at RB in MUN's weekend 1-0 win; grabbed a BP too. Got forward at RB early in the season before his injury. Definitely not nailed on with Jones's emergence but those of us with just enough available cash might take a chance . . . . David Luiz (6.3) loves to get forward (2G in 900+ min last year) and seems part of AVB's preferred back 4 (Ivanovic, Luiz, Terry, Cole). Ivanovic (6.7) - 4G, 5A last year, nailed on now at RB. 2 from Man City - Vincent Kompany, 2G this year, had he been appropriately categorized as a defender last year (and been given 4 points for each of MNC's 18 CS instead of 1), he would have had 149 points last year. Micah Richards seems nailed on at RB in league (Zabalata has only 1 league start) and has 1G, 5A. MNC are struggling for CS this year compared to last, and Richards doesn't have a history of starts but go ahead and project out his first third over a full season . . . one more, a bit of a gamble but at 5.9, a good bargain - Dalglish seems to have settled on Skrtel and Agger as first choice CBs; Agger gets forward a fair amount and scored 2 goals in his one 2000+ min season . . .
3. The Steady Rollin' Man. Robert Johnson's classic blues tune fits Clint Dempsey to a tee. A poacher's goal to kill off Liverpool on Monday gives him 4 goals on the year. 6th in FF midfielder points, 6th in the FFS/ICT index and more shots than any other midfielder. Danny Murphy has just 3 fewer points @ a 6.2 price, so he's not even the best value in his own team's midfield; and Fulham do not have a good near term schedule (MUN, CHE, and ARS over the holiday glut). But Dempsey had 168 points last year, and has 65 so far this year, I'll take the bet that he tops last year's number (and Murphy by 20 FF points) if he remains healthy. Once the Fulham schedule turns favorable, I'll be looking to add the American.
4. Chelsea. Corner. Turned ? Chelsea are behind only Man City in goals scored and a 3-0 win v. Wolves on the weekend and a 3-0 win in CL tonight. AVB looks to have settled on Mata, Drogba, Sturridge as his favored front 3; Ramires seems nailed on and occasionally can find the goal at 7.2 (with Ramsey (in particular) and other midpriced options not offering much, a flyer on a midfielder nailed on for a team scoring 2.0+ goals per game, not the worst option). I tipped Lampard as a potential captain option this past week (and had he finished his Pen, not a bad tip) but AVB clearly has decided that Lampard's age merits occasional rotation (he started tonight's CL game on the bench). At 11.6, no thanks. But . . . with Drogba now clearly the favorite for the starting center forward role, and delivering on the weekend and looking unplayable tonight . . . does Drogba come back onto our radar ?
5. Why does Mick McCarthy hate Stephen Fletcher ? All Fletcher did last year was keep Wolves up with 10 goals in 1300+ minutes last year, most in the winter/spring relegation fight; he has 5 goals in 7 starts this year v. Kevin Doyle's 2 in 13 starts. Yet, Fletcher can't seem to get starts, even when healthy. Maybe his 2 goal performance Sunday will change McCarthy's mind. Going 4-4-2 makes Jamie O'Hara less attractive but would certainly put Fletcher - all he f***ing does is score at 5.9 - on the radar.
Very interesting thoughts on the expensive triple threat defenders. It was a possible way forward for me to differentiate because of my jackassery of not getting RvP in.
ReplyDeleteI'm holding tight onto Rooney, Baines, and (possibly) Klasnic until the new year. Hopefully my gamble pays off, but I might have to use the wildcard early in January to finally get RvP in.
Vidic wasn't on my radar until this article. I had completely forgot that United have only conceded one goal in the league since his return.
Regarding Smalling, a plus side is that he is rarely substituted on late on in games. So if he is benched, you at least get a shot with your bench player.
I didn't really flesh out the case for Vidic, but he's my favored pick from this group just because of MUN's consistent clean sheet record with Vidic in the side. Obviously, this is not a representative sample, but MUN have 4 CS in 5 games since Vidic's return; he's averaging 5.8 FF points per game. In his 3 seasons with over 2500 min, he has 178, 148, 145 points. Compare that with midfielders in the 7.0-9.0 price range. If you conceptually think of CS as goals, and MUN keep 16-18 CS this year, Vidic looks a lot better value than most 8.0-range forwards or midfielders, in part, because there just aren't a ton of those guys this year offering good value. Now, if Jones, Ferdinand, and Evra continue to start, you pay a premium for Vidic, so that's worth considering.
ReplyDeleteMy model has changed a bit this year in that I am starting 3 forwards every week (RvP, Adebayor, Sturridge), so I have been going 3-4-3, but if you have one of the 4 nailed on 'triple threats', you can easily go 4-3-3 and rotate/sit budget mids. There actually are quite a few decent buys in this range, e.g., Gower, who you don't mind sitting. And with inconsistent returns from a lot of teams in terms of defense/CS ( Stoke, wtf?; and, where is NWC going now w/o S.Taylor and Coloccini?), maybe a bit of premium for a 'triple threat' is worth it.
Well thought out.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting to challenge the preconception that midfielders always score more than defenders. I hadn't thought of it that way.
I'm not doing transfers this week, but TTDs (Triple Threat Defenders) will be on my mind.
Don't get me wrong, I think the case for budget defenders is very strong, and I would argue for someone biting on only one of the 'triple threat' guys, but I do think there are 4 circumstances which make an argument for going for 1 triple threat a good one. The 'perfect storm' analogy is used too much, but right now we seem to have:
ReplyDelete(1) a lack of good value midpriced (~7.0 ~9.0) mids (except Bale); Dempsey may be the outlier but his schedule ahead is pretty brutal; the jury is still out on Arteta and Walcott (Arshavin and Benayoun aren't even in the conversation, btw); jury still out on Ramires and Lennon; you can probably make a case for Yaya Toure but after that you may as well drop down to ~6.5. So, after Silva, VdV, Nani/A.Young, Lampard, a bit of a wasteland (Bale, maybe Dempsey excluded) until you get to ~6.5.
(2) with the return from injury of Vermaelen and Vidic we have some high-end defenders who contribute FF points as if they were midfielders - Baines, Terry, Vermaelen, Vidic (A.Cole and Evra are probably honorary members). I also think Kompany can probably be included too, given he has 2 goals this year and would have been on 149+ points last year had he been categorized correctly. Aside from contributing attacking points, the key here is they are historically safe from rotation. Value is value but ultimately it's about FF points and in years past where I was looking to see how to squeeze in 4 of any number of high-priced mids, that's not this year; this subgroup of defenders are where it seems to me those 140-160 point guys are right now.
(3) there are no 'out-of-the-blue' early mid/lower table teams consistently keeping CS aside from NWC. Yes, SWN, but you could see that coming based on their GA last year (I've had Vorm since GW1 - and SWN are only a home CS team; don't take that bandwagon on the road!). And now the rubber will meet the road for those who stocked up on NWC defenders with S.Taylor/Coloccini on the sidelines. So, budget defenders, it seems to me, are even more of a crapshoot than ever (hello Jonathan Woodgate).
(4) There are budget (bargain basement budget) midfielders, in the same price range as budget defenders, who also offer good value, so you don't feel bad about sitting Allen, Gower, Moses, B.Johnson, Faurlin, et.al., to squeeze in a Vermaelen/Baines/Vidic.
The rotatable budget defender model and the idea of investing in the cheapest starter in a 'top 4' defense is still my rule, but MUN schedule and Vidic's historical FF record, has me leaning toward the big Serb and bargain basement budget mid, rather than a midpriced mid and a budget defender for 2 of my team slots.
I agree and the more expensive defenders is the road I'm taking at least until the Wildcard in January.
ReplyDeleteFor the wildcard, I could be tempted to go RvP, Aguero/Rooney, Adebayor for an all out attack.
Good point on value vs. FF points. I sometimes forget that the point about chasing value is to be able to afford expensive point getters. If those point getters are in defence, you find value elsewhere.
Vidic was injured last night, could be out for some time.