The Take Away from GW15

With one more massive game to go in the GW, here is what I take away from this past weekend's matches.

1.  Man United's attack has returned.  5 straight single goal league matches left many FF managers wondering if SAF had so committed to defending that the likes of Rooney, Nani, Young, and Hernandez/Welbeck  would provide returns their price tags justify.  When I (improvidently) wildcarded back in GW7, I made the determination that Nani would be my only Man Utd cover and if Rooney kept on with his spectacular run, Nani would be heavily involved, minimizing my losses vis-a-vis those who soldiered on with Rooney.  As the blank weeks mounted for Rooney (and as he was reassigned to the midfield), FF managers abandoned him and his price dropped.  But, as my league leader, the Mighty Gustavonator, never tires of telling me - patience, patience, patience.  Rooney is in a class with RvP (and, I think, Aguero) in terms of FF points scorers.  1 of these 3 is nigh-on essential (2 is even better) I think this year, so I'm not sure why anyone would have abandoned Rooney unless they were bringing in Aguero or RvP.  I have made the determination that Nani is my Man Utd guy and he will be with my side through thick and thin.  Patience.  I might be slightly worried if I held Ashley Young - Valencia was excellent on Saturday, and less well publicized I guess, is that Nani was excellent on the left side in this game.  Will SAF keep that attacking formation and keep Nani on the left ?  The question is enough to make me nervous if I own A.Young.

2. The FF upside and the downside to Vidic's unfortunate injury.  I was really, really disappointed to see Nemanja Vidic's injury in the CL loss, first because he is a fantastic defender I love to watch and second, because I had planned to bring him in next week, following up on my 'triple threat' post last week. His absence means Man Utd are less likely (my quick and dirty analysis based on a the very small sample of this year's games w/without Vidic is 30% less likely to keep CS) to keep clean sheets (query: does Fletcher get his head on the ball for the Wolves' goal if Vidic is playing?).  I moved for Evans on Friday and stressed all Friday and Saturday morning until I saw Evans in the BBC text listing the Man Utd lineup sheet  I think the fact that SAF immediately moved for Evans as Vidic's replacement is a pretty significant statement.  And I thought Evans played well, albeit against an anemic Wolves attack.  If Evans starts, say, 6 of the next 7, he looks a massive, massive value to me - on the order of Enrique at 5.0 joining Liverpool.  Constantly slagged off by Man Utd supporters, I think the Northern Irishman is good enough to help Man Utd to 3-4 CS over the holiday glut of games, given the near term schedule.  Even Smalling looks pretty good at 5.2, although his spot is at some risk when Rafael returns our SAF slides Jones to RB.

3.  Patience is one thing but then there's Ramsey.  When I originally brought him in, it was because he seemed to get in better attacking positions than Arteta.  As the season has worn on Arteta has asserted himself as the dominant attacking option in central midfield for Arsenal and Ramsey has been very much the assist to the assister guy. Meanwhile Ramsey has also missed some pretty easy chances; enough to make me wonder about his composure in front of goal.  Count this as an experiment that failed.  Stooshers will be moving on.

4. You get what you pay for.  When I saw that Vorm had saved Dempsey's penalty, I was ecstatic; I had doubled down on Swansea's defense with Vorm and Monk . . . only to learn Monk was on the bench.  Caulker's return sidelined Swansea's f***ing team captain.  If your f***ing team captain is not nailed on, who is ?  Again, you go for budget defenders, you get what you pay for.  Every time one of your ~4.0 defenders starts, it's a good day - and you should never take it for granted.

5.  Demba Ba makes me wonder if Daniel Sturridge is my best option in this price range. Nuff said.  The Senagalese will be off for ACON, and for my minileague position, it can't come soon enough.

6.  Is the Newcastle defensive dike starting to burst ?  I'm not dropping Danny Simpson now, but you wonder if the loss of S.Taylor and Fabricio (what was mom thinking?) Coloccini will be the end of Newcastle's CS form.  I actually think Coloccini is much more important than S.Taylor and so I'll hold back judgment til he is back for a few games.

7.  Stoke v. Tottenham.  This game demonstrated to me that Tottenham will not challenge Man City, Man Utided  or Chelsea for a top 3 place.  Not enough physicality to match Stoke, whereas all of the above 3 teams can grind with Stoke (and other EPL teams that get 'stuck in' as they say).  That's not to say Tottenham shouldn't have gotten a result but for an Adebayor's onside goal being ruled offside.  The other take away here was  - Adebayor on pens now.  I wonder if there won't be some clarification in the press on this, but I as I watched the game, I assumed I had missed VdV being subbed.  VdV is a terrific FF asset, and his accuracy and shoot-on-sight attitude makes him an elite FF mid, but w/o pens in his locker, Bale's price makes him a lot more attractive option as we steam toward that DGW.

8.  Stephen Fletcher, legend.  I don't know if Mick McCarthy will keep playing 4-4-2, but if he does, and your model is 2 elite forwards and a budget guy, Fletcher is your man.  He has 6 goals to Kevn Doyle's 2 in 500 fewer minutes played.  In 1395 minutes last year, i.e., essentially 15 games, Fletcher scored 10 goals, with 3 assists.  With, I believe, Burnley, in 2009-10 in 2850 min., 8 goals, 5 assists.  Great squad forward - if McCarthy plays him.

9.  Bolton fans, the torture continues.  No, it's worse.  The Reebok used to be a fortress.  It still is but now the gate's open and the guards have taken vacation.  2 goals to Villa, at home . . . are you f***ing kidding me ?  I thought I would see my favorite team outside of Liverpool  prosper under Owen Coyle but it's hard to see a team as shambolic defensively as this team pulling out of the relegation zone.  If only they had a widely sought after international center back to anchor that defense . . . oh, wait. And now, the one bright spot to the season, the guy who was actually providing the team with goals, Ivan Klasnic is stretchered off.  Faithful commenter Gummi will be in despair.

10.  Moses, 13 points.  On my bench.  Victor Moses is down to 4.6 and still has good underlying 'goal threat' stats as shown on the essential Members/FFS site.  And he scored a beauty v. West Brom on Saturday.  And picked up 3 BPs.  And I kept the aforementioned twit Ramsey in my line-up against an Everton team I knew - knew - would bunker up.  The lesson: always, always challenge your assumptions when you set up your starting line-up.  Anyway, now that my man Victor comes into some form, Wigan's schedule becomes the worst in the EPL  over the next 8 games.  I'm staying with him as my squad mid but I'll have to hope for a bit of a miracle to get another return like that when one of my starters is unexpectedly benched.