The Takeaway from GW18, Part 2

Gareth Bale saved my GW, no doubt he saved a fair few others as well, and my 48 points kept me just (barely) inside the top 10,000 and well on top in my minileague.  But, unfortunately, I crashed out of the FF Cup with 16 points sitting on my bench (Friedel (8) and Simpson (8)).  Ouch.  But here's a second helping of my takeaways from the GW:

1.  West Brom were lucky boys.  West Brom kept a CS against the league leaders Man City, who came into the match averaging 3.1 gpg overall and 3.5 gpg away.  I had a chance to see the replay of the game, then the highlights.  Well, you can take all that happy horseshit about "manly defending" and "well-organized" and put it in your pipe and smoke it; they were lucky.  Silva missed 2 chances I would have been upset about missing in an over40 5 v 5; I recall a post coming to Foster's aid, and several gilt-edged chances for Aguero and Balotelli they, well, missed.  God bless Martin O'Neil and the job he has done for Sunderland so far, but he would do well to park the bus and hope in this coming GW.  Man City aren't going to miss all the chances they create every week

In a previous post, I had bigged up a potential move for Valencia by selling Silva.  And I was feeling particularly sorry for myself when I held off on the move and Valencia notched a goal, an assist, a CS point, and 2 BPs.  It would have been a fantastic differential move and would have added 10+ for me this week.  But I am feeling ok about not making the move after I watched Silva's performance - easily could have had 2 goals (and, then, BPs).  In fact, I find it peculiar whenever he doesn't get BPs.  So, as disappointed as I was to "lose" the Valencia points, I am going to hold steady with David Silva and look to squeeze Valencia in somewhere else.

Also, has no one else notice you can get nailed on access to one of the best back 4s in FPL for 5.6 ?  Hint: Kolarov is injured. 

Earlier in the season Edin Dzeko was on my watchlist.  I ultimately opted for Adebayor and Dzeko found starts increasingly difficult to come by.  Lucky me. But I am wondering if another relatively inexpensive way to get access to the Man City attack is Mario Balotelli.  At 8.1 he's in the price range where you need him to start every week and he's not doing that yet, but I wonder if Mancini's man-managment of this guy is beginning to bear fruit.  He's scoring goals at 1 per every 89 minutes - van Persie is on a 1 per every 95 minutes clip.

2.  Rotation worries.  I sent this to my friendly rival ForzaInter recently: As I look at the next GW[19], some difficult decisions are out there.  Will Nani and/or RvP be rested ?  RvP has a game Dec 31 (QPR) and then Jan 2 (ful).  WTF.  On the one hand, he is 2 goals shy of the single calendar year record of Alan Shearer, on the other hand, Arsenal need him a whole lot more at Fulham than home v. QPR.  One would think.  Nani at least has 3 days off after the home game v. BLA on Dec 31- Man Utd play Jan 4 @ NWC.  But these are the 2 games I expect Nani and RvP to sit.  This has big implications for my captain's selection and was/is one of the reasons I would love to squeeze Valencia in this week - while I think Nani or Valencia might be rested in one of the games in the near term, I don't think SAF would dare rest both Nani AND Valencia in the same game.

I think rotation worries should be a concern with Gareth Bale and Emmanuel Adebayor (and the DGW20) too. Tottenham play at Swansea on Saturday Dec. 31.  The Liberty Stadium has been no day in the park for any visitor, so you would expect Bale and Adebayor to play there.  But the front end of the DGW comes 3 days later against West Brom on Tuesday Jan 2.  Will Redknapp be inclined to at least think about resting his so far everpresents there ?   Hmm.

3.  Tight, low scoring games.  Our future for the next 2 GWs ?  1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0.  The results from 7 of the 10 games; 2 of the others were 2-0 clean sheets, and the last was Man Utd's 5-0 tonking of  10-man Wigan.  So, not to shoot the dead horse or anything, but 9 of the 10 games had 2 goals or less, and all games had either 2 goals or less or involved a clean sheet.  That was after only 1 short week.  The next 2 gameweeks take place over a 6 day timeframe (excepting the Tottenham v. Everton, part of their DGW).  I am going to make sure I have defenders that start for their clubs over the next 2 GWs, and I'm not sure it's the worst idea in the world to think about playing a 5-2-3 or 5-3-2, especially in GW20.

4.  I think 2 of the 3 promoted teams are likely to go back down.  The last few years have seen first Hull City, then Burnley, and then Blackpool hang in there and then fade badly in the second half.  West Brom were saved last year through the master raiser of the dead, Roy Hodgson.  Ultimately class and experience begin to show. 

I don't see Blackburn recovering but I saw the Bolton v. Newcastle game and Bolton were the better side for most of the game.  And unlucky to lose.  If they can use the money a sale of Cahill might bring (and, for what it's worth I don't think Bolton will miss Cahill) to get a creative midfielder or another goal scorer to go with Klasnic, they might overcome this disasterous first half.  They've got a murderous schedule to open the New Year, but a win and a draw in the next 2 (WW, eve) takes them out of the relegation zone. 

I've never rated Neil Warnock as a manager at this level and unless QPR spend, well, I don't think Helguson, a guy who couldn't get a look-in until injuries decimated their other options, is the man to lead them to the promised land.  And Taraabt might have been the biggest FF bust since, well, since . . . who was that Wigan Italian forward everyone had for the first game or 2 last year ?

I think Swansea may just survive, but I think they will increasingly be found out; teams will give them possession (they can't score anyway, no matter their possession percentage) and beat them on the counter.  I will be really intrigued to see Tottenham go there this Saturday.  The implication for my team is whether the January window wild card is time to cash in on my Vorm profit.

Norwich have impressed in the way that a really loud, drunk 6'4" guy impresses - crazy, running around, tearing shit up, but sooner or later the police are called and pretty soon the guy looks kind of stupid on the floor in handcuffs.  I think if teams sort out how to handle the thugs Holt and Morison (okay, Morison is slightly less a thug, although he really, really looks a thug), they can sort this team going forward.  And it is a really, really bad sign that in 18 games you have not kept a single clean sheet.  There are some teams that are really hopeless in attack and that you haven't managed to solve them, even once, well good luck with that attack all the time thingy.  As a FF group, it's tough to say who is worth owning here.  I might go Morison if you are working with a '2 elite/1 budget' forward model, but the midfield is a Lambert rotation nightmare.  I might look at Surman, who looks like an actual EPL level winger at 4.4, especially if you need a 4.4 mid that plays to help finance an elite player.

As for Wigan, I love Roberto Martinez and his passion to play good football.  I was impressed with Wigan's 2 draws against Chelsea and Liverpool in a run of games I expected them to get pounded every single game.  Somehow I think his sanity will return; Connor Sammon will be benched, Rodallega (or at least di Santos) will be restored and score often enough for Wigan to escape.  Wigan have a terrific GK, Diame is a formidable holding mid, Moses has a world of potential, but, most importantly, Wigan have been through this relegation stuff before.  Moses and Gomez are worth owning as budget mids here, I think.

5.  I have a hard time believing it, but Tottenham look for real.  Tottenham could have won by 5 or 6 yesterday, and I think the DGW requires any sane FF manager to have 2, better yet 3, Tottenham players in.  Gareth Bale will quickly be approaching Silva/RvP numbers in terms of ownership, and I am shocked to see Adebayor has only 18% ownership; he's scored at least a goal or an assist in 12 of his 15 games with Tottenham.  VdV has not looked sharp in FF terms, although his FF totals overall still look good and his goal threat numbers on FFS/ICT are solid.

One guy I might look at for just the DGW20 only, especially if my budget was really, really tight is Sandro at 4.9.  Again just for the DGW.  He's a holding mid who's started the last 3 games alongside Scott Parker.  He gets forward on occasion.  No matter what, assuming he continues to start, he's going to net you 4-6 points.  For 4.9 you wanted a superstar ?

A lot of managers have brought in Kyle Walker at 5.8 (7.1%) or BAE at 5.3 (7.4%), mostly because of what is referred to as their "attacking threat".  But sometimes we need to remind ourselves that the game is about fantasy football points.  I brought Brad Friedel at 5.5 (4.7%) in 3 GWs ago when Schwarzer was injured as a short term fix through Tottenham's DGW20, fully expecting to WC him out.  Now, I'm not so sure. Brad Friedel's last 3 GWs: 10, 4, 8 points.  This season, FF point totals comparison.

Friedel(5.5) = 75 points
Walker(5.8) = 64 points
BAE (5.3) = 59 points.

If Tottenham can solidy their centerback situation, why can't Friedel, at much less the cost than Hart, Cech or Reina, be expected to keep similar CS numbers ? 

At players priced at 5.5 or under, Friedel is second only to Mikel Vorm in FF points (pauses for a moment for all those who obsessively look for budget defenders, midfielders and forwards with consistent production to look up).  Dude, it's about points.