The Takeaway from GW17 and a tip or two

Merry Christmas to one and all !   Santa was good to Stooshers with 90 points in GW17, and at 1001 points for the year, I've climbed to 8800+ in the world.  First in my minileague for the first time in at least 2 years, my best world position ever.  How can I f*** this up ?  We'll see. 

A late post on GW17, including a few head's up on tomorrow.

1.  Manchester United have a lot of incredible options and a schedule to boot.  Duh.  Here we go, 4-1 over Wolves, 5-0 over Fulham and a near term schedule which looks like - WIG, BLA, new, BOL. Booyah ! Aside from the obvious Rooney and Nani selections, there are a ton of options.  Best bargain: Jonny Evans.  His price has just risen, so he's not completely under the radar, but Antonio Valencia.  With A.Young injured (according to SAF, but see No. 2), Valencia seems nailed on for 3 starts of the next 4; he's started 4 games in 18 days - so I expect he'll sit one of the 4 ahead.  The only thing holding me back from bringing in Valencia for this minirun is that Valencia doesn't have great FFS/CTI numbers despite a 4 GW run of 3, 12, 8, 6 in his 4 prior starts.  I'll be up a couple more hours thinking about this one.  A lot of folks will be jumping on Welbeck but I am not confident that he'll start more than  1 or 2 of the next 4.  If you look at Hernandez v. Welbeck; Hernandez starts when he is not injured or fatigued.  And it looks like Hernandez is back to fitness.  Anyone across the back 4 that started the last game (Smalling, P.Jones (see No. 2), Evans, Evra) look like a decent short term punt.  And, I'll say this, you could do a lot worse - provided you are willing to pay ~2.0 extra for 2 GK - than the combo of deGea/Lindegaard (10.9).  Lindegaard is a bargain price and hasn't conceded in the Premier League.  Don't just get De Gea, get Lindegaard too.   Carrick and Giggs are decent punts over the short term too.  Carrick looks in form to my eye and Giggs, is, well ,Giggs.  Won't start all of the next 4  but might be worth a chance on another big week at 6.8 if it fits your budget and you can always WC out after GW21.

2.  If you believe anything out of SAF's mouth postgame, I've got a bridge in Arizona I want to sell you.  In reading FF blog commenters, I was laughing hysterically at the number of folks bailing on Phil Jones based on a stray elbow and SAF's post game comments.  The master of the jedi mind game,  I now believe almost just the opposite of everything SAF says relative to the fitness of his players post game.  I mean, if you think about it, Jones took a shot to the jaw.  It's hard to break a jaw.  But I was happy to see tons of FF managers go into sell-off mode (and buy Evans, who I bought at 4.4).  Don't know if Jones will start tomorrow, but I would not be surprised.

3.  Are there Everton players worth owning ?  Short answer: I wouldn't go out of my way.  I gambled on Royston Drenthe last week and he was worth 6 points and looked like he might grab BP points.  I am going to stay through the DGW20 but he has a lot to prove in terms of a long term contract with my side.  Osman had great FFS/CTI numbers and is only 6.7.  There isn't a lot of great value in this range, although I would argue that Walters is probably a better value, given Stoke's near term schedule.  Everton play 4 of their next 5 away, although they do have the DGW20.  I bigged up Baines a few weeks ago, and if I had him, I'd probably hang with him through the DGW20.  Jagielka has ~13% ownership, which seems insane to me, but . . . I wouldn't drop him until after DGW20.  The budget defender here is Hibbert at 4.8.  But, again, 4 of the next 5 Everton games are away.

4.  Newcastle 2 v. WBA 3.  I initially had Evans benched (away to Ful) and had Simpson in, in a game that, earlier in the year, I would have expected Newcastle to be good odds for a clean sheet.  Sanity returned, Evans came in for Simpson just before deadline, and, well, I picked up 6 points.  As a Simpson holder, I'm a little worried about Newcastle's defense. 

This week reminded us all of the force that Peter Odemwingie can be when fit.  WBA play 3 of the next 4 at home - MNC, EVE, tot, NOR - and I rode Odemwingie hard last year, so I tend to think he's a good value ahead.  If you have Ba, you might want to monitor Odemwingie for a sideways pricewise transfer.

5.  I think Wigan and Bolton will survive.  What does that mean for the FF manager ?  Not a lot.  Al-Haibsi, Moses and Gomez for Wigan.  All good rotation guys.  Bolton, not so much.  I think Klasnic is a good budget forward, but since Eagles has been benched, it's hard to see any value here.  G.Cahill is rumored to be off to greener pastures (big teams, apparently, haven't been watching Cahill's performances this year) and he may become a FF value at 5.2, but this is a guy who has 17 FF points in his last 16 games.  He makes Jonathan Woodgate look positively prolific. Maybe at Chelsea or Tottenham and at 5.2 he becomes worth a look in.  If Bolton use the money to get a credible left back or a central midfielder capable of a defense splitting pass, Bolton will be OK.

6.  Thinking about a Valencia for Silva near term gamble, crazy ?  I sent the following post to my minileague friend and rival ForzaInter:

Another bit of info, and who knows since it came out of SAF's mouth, is that A.Young sustained some sort of knee injury and is expected out for 2-3 weeks. Subject to rotation, Nani and Valencia should be close to nailed on for 2-3 weeks with each maybe getting a GW off - but probably not together. More importantly, Nani and Valencia were central to every attacking MUN move.  If there are goals, Nani and Valencia will be involved.

 

Another important point is that Aguero reminds us of the force he is [in the Stoke game].  The thing about Aguero is that he is currently only 0.6 more expensive than Silva, but has more points (108 v103); has more double figure GWs (5 v 4) and, more importantly for armband purposes has 66 points in those 5 double figure GWs (pending BPs this week) v. Silva's 43 in his 4 double figure GWs.  This tells me there is so much more upside to Aguero  - who will almost always get the armband in favorable fixtures (whereas I have been reluctant to go to Silva(c) despite his consistency).

 

MUN schedule for the next 4(6) GWs: WIG, BLA, new, BOL, (ars, STK).

 

MNC schedule for the next 4(6) GWs: wba, sun, LIV, wig, (TOT, eve).  And, as we know, 2 Carling Cup games in that mix, as well as a FA Cup game.

 

Call me crazy, but this all screams Valencia >> Silva for the next 4 GWs (2-3 weeks); after GW20, Tottenham's DGW, Aguero >> Adebayor.  And then re-evaluate with the transfer window WC, with a view to replacing Silva permanently with the steady Yaya Toure after his return from ACN (perhaps once A.Young is back to fitness and threatens Valencia's place again).

 

Late in the evening here in E.S.T., but I am torn on this one.  Dropping Silva leaves me with no attacking MNC coverage.  Valencia has scored well in terms of FF points but not in terms of the EA Sports PPI or FFS/CTI.  But I give up Silva, central to MNC averaging 3.0+ gpg.  The upside is the 2.1 I would grab off Silva makes a Vermaelen or a Clichy or a Skrtel or a P.Jones or a A.Cole available for Monk. 

 

7.  Does the 24 hour push back of the Arsenal game change your RvP play ?  I thought there was a good chance that van Persie might be rested for the Wolves game but with the game pushed back 24 hours, I think RvP is a good bet to start.  So he's my no-brainer captain selection. I am guessing he'll be rested v. QPR 4 days later with Fulham away 3 days after that.