1. GWs come fast and furious. It's very easy to blow through a GW deadline if you are prepping for a ski trip over the holiday or are stuck on some new gameboy Christmas present.
2. Look at the schedule of any prospective purchase. Yes, Victor Moses is back from the dead and at 4.6 is a great price for a nailed on starter/90 minute guy/best FF threat in his team but . . . Wigan get started on a brutal run of fixtures beginning this week with Chelsea. With more than 1/10 of your FF season taking place over the next 3 weeks the last thing you want to do is transfer in a player with several elite teams on his schedule or 3 out of 4 away or something similar.
If you aren't on any FF websites (or even if you are), especially if you are looking to buy a big ticket midfielder/forward from an elite team, check the team's website for all of their forthcoming games (FA Cup, Carling Cup, Europa League), not just their EPL schedule. Especially with the elite teams, the FPL schedule may be complicated with extra FA Cup or Carling Cup games.
3. I'm not going to do your homework for you. But let's look at one guy, a guy you probably have since if you are reading this you are probably paying attention and because 46% of managers hold him, David Silva. Here's his schedule through Jan 11, GW21:
Sun 12/18 ARS (EPL)
Wed 12/21 STK (EPL)
Mon 12/26 wba (EPL)
Sun 1/1 sun (EPL)
Tues 1/3 LIV (EPL)
Sun 1/8 MUN (FA)
Wed 1/11 LIV (CC)
Mon 1/16 wig (EPL)
7 games in 24 days (8 in 28). Anyone willing to give me odds on Silva sitting, say, 12/21 v. STK or 1/1 @ sun or 1/16 @ wig or all 3 FF GWs?
4. Make sure your squad guys are starters and likely to play. If you picked Ferguson of NWC 'cause he was dirt cheap or some other guy (hello Leroy Lita) who is dirt cheap but doesn't start regularly or is at best a 10 minute cameo guy, well, when Silva (or any of your other elite players, remember, Wenger and SAF have already promised to rotate their squads over the 'festive period') is rotated out, take your '0' or '1' pointer autosub like a man.
5. This is a good week to dump out that guy blinking with a red "i" or yellow "i" on your team. For the same reason, time to get rid of a player - maybe not a priority before - who is injured and not likely to be available over the 'festive period'. You may need all 3 squad guys. Better 4/2 points than play with 9 or 10.
6. Be sure your vice-captain (VC) is very, very likely to play. It's those weaker games over this glut where we are likely to see RvP, Aguero, Rooney etc. etc. rested. Make sure your 'vice' - even if you have to drop down to a guy like Jamie O'Hara or Seb Larrson (not that these guys might not be subject to rotation but are far less likely) - it's often worth it. I'm not sure even a Michel Vorm at home over this period is the worst pick as a VC. An elite defender may come into play here too; defenders are far less likely to be rested.
7. Think your captain's decision through if you select an elite option. Get as much info as you can before you pick your captain. If Rooney, or RvP, or Aguero have started 2 games in 7 days, and have a weak opponent ahead, you are taking a calculated risk that he won't be rested, and if the side is is in trouble late on, might not come on for 20 minutes w/o prodicing the goods. Yes, RvP and Dzeko, for instance, have turned cameos into huge games for their FF managers this year, but you may be better off with a midpriced guy playing 90 minutes against a weak opponent.
8. Coupe d'Afrique des nations de football. I was all set to fire up a new post titled 'Is Silva a Must-Have?' and make the case that you could drop Silva down to Yaya Toure (in the last 10 GWs their points are similar, both have 2 goals, and 1 double figure GW in those 10 GWs, to start with the argument) and create some cash for other investment but I was reminded that Yaya Toure heads for Africa in early January for the African Cup of Nations (ACN). The lesson here is that if you are bringing someone in for the benefit of their near term schedule, better be sure you know whether they will be shipping out for ACN and when. I think Demba Ba will outscore Daniel Sturridge (I have Sturridge) over the next 4 GWs, but Sturrridge is staying in London all through January and February and won't be playing 3-6 matches in the summer heat of Libreville.
There is nothing better than having a few days off at the holidays and between the Christmas festivities and New Year's parties watching a ton of games, but you will fall like a stone in your minileague if you lose track of GW deadlines, rotation, and injuries.
Yup, yup. This is the time of year where your substitutes are needed the most.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, the injury gods have been messing with my squad; Given, Rodwell, Wilkinson, and Klasnic have all suffered.
I can't get Sturridge in should Klasnic be seriously injured so I could opt for a straight switch in Fletcher for Klasnic.
You'll probably have to wait til Friday's press conferences to get a bead on Klasnic; maybe the team website or Bolton papers have some info ? Those are tough injuries too, all at the bottom of their respective price ranges. Maybe you could drop Given for a Ruddy and Rodwell for a Gower to find the money for Ba/Sturridge ? On the other hand any of Morison, Graham, Holt, Helguson and Fletcher look like they will score. My trepidation on S. Fletcher is McCarthy never seems to want to give him a 5-6 game run. Or maybe Fletcher has glass legs and can't stay fit. Hard to know.
ReplyDeleteWith Schwarzer now set to miss 4-6 weeks, I've got an injury concern too. I've been riding a Vorm/Schwarzer combo all year, switching them per home/away/best fixture. I don't fancy Vorm alone through this 6 game stretch - nwc, eve, QPR, TOT, avl, ARS. Trying to decide whether to drop down to Hennessey (4.5) or take a flyer on Freidel (5.5) through GW21 and then WC him out. I had hoped to move Ramsey this week for a slightly cheaper guy to provide cash to upgrade Monk (who's been benched for Caulker), but that plan may have to wait.
Interestingly, I'm also considering what to do regarding Vorm's partner for my Fantasy team. I had Given/Vorm and I am now looking for a replacement.
ReplyDeleteI have been wondering going for Moreira (Vorm's replacement) for 3.9 to free up funds for other places.
My argument is:
1) At least for now, Vorm's form is so good that he is likely to pick up save points when they don't keep a clean sheet.
2) The extra dough could be put to productive use elsewhere.
3) Having both goalkeepers for Swansea guarantees you points if Vorm gets injured.
4) Other goalkeepers haven't been producing this season which means you aren't missing out on much neglecting the GK rotation game.
I've had a friend bat around the idea of just riding Vorm through the injury to Given/Schwarzer. It's not the worst idea, with the caveat that you should check Vorm's away numbers. Lots of 2s and 3s and a couple of 0s. Aside from his monster game @ Anfield, the away form is not good. That said, Vorm seems capable of pulling out that away clean sheet almost single-handedly. I also think you should at least look at Hennessey's numbers since he rotates home/away with Vorm GW16-20 and is only 4.5. Moreira frees up 1.0M over Schwarzer, so it's really a team priority issue. I've opted to go Friedel on the theory that he'll start 5 of 6 GWs between GW16-21 with Vorm starting GW18 only; he has a DGW20 and, at 5.5, he's in the mix in terms FF points for players at his price range. And, with the January window WC, I'm not married to him.
ReplyDelete