A few notes on this past GW. Note the title of the post is "GW6 Review" and not "The Monday Wreckage". What a decent captain's selection will do . . .
1. Over 200,000 managers have transferred Luis Suarez out in the past 2 weeks. I will, for future reference, refer to these as 'Lemming Managers' or "LM" for short. Why did they transfer him out ? His all-action performances haven't declined and the LMs dumped him out in front of a home match v. WW. A goal and all 3 BPs rewarded those of us who maintained our patience and captained him. If you expect a forward to score every single game, sign up for LaLiga fantasy and draft in Messi.
2. Manchester City v. Everton. I thought the new BP system would weed out apparently random BP choices. And then Milner pops up with 3BP for his goal in a late cameo. Very, very strange. Meanwhile, Silva had 3 key passes, including slotting Milner in for his goal, despite being manmarked by Neville and Rodwell for 80 minutes. The other observation I have about this game is one I've made before but Aguero seems like a 'must-have'. Unlucky not to score, he did grab an assist and a deserved BP. I am monitoring Rooney's injury closely because I would have no trouble swapping him out for the Argentine. The line-up for tonight's Bayern Munich CL may influence this decision as well. The other observation is that Moyes is a superb manager. Everton could have nicked a point in this one up until the second goal. Unfortunately, Everton look a massive wasteland in terms of FF value.
3. Arsenal v Bolton. RvP returns with a vengeance. There are so many forwards with high price tags looking for inclusion in your FF team it's hard to decide how to go. But Arsenal's next 6 are: tot, SUN, STK, che, WBA, nor. Hard to see RvP failing to offer major returns in that stretch. If your budget is tight, is Ramsey returning to our FF radar ? I don't think Mertasacker is a bad shout at 6.0 either over this stretch. Bolton had another woeful game. I've had Petrov in since GW1 as a rotation midfielder and he looks their best player. Bolton's early schedule has been brutal but after this week's visit from Chelsea the schedule softens considerably and it may be time to revisit a few of their lads.
4. Newcastle v. Blackburn. I had Demba Ba in my preseason/GW1 side, but he was pulled early by Pardew and then spent time on the bench and I quickly dumped him with the "extra" WC afforded by GW2. I was very impressed with him last year in half a season with West Ham (7G in the equivalent of 10 games). If this game kickstarts his season he may be a monster value at 6.1. One for the Watchlist if you are going old school with a budget forward. The other NWC issue here is Ben Arfa. Will he get a starting role after a long injury layoff ? Does that impact Cabaye ? You should have your GK situation sorted at this point in the season but Krul looks to have taken the GK position permanently here and is a great value in rotation. Blackburn look like a FF no-go area unless - again, you are kicking it old school with a budget forward - Junior Hoillet added a goal to his 3 assists this year. Good value for a squad forward at 6.0.
5. Chelsea v. Swansea. Just when I was thinking it safe to start a Torres bandwagon . . . a red card. I've been touting Meireles in this blog, but Ramires scored twice here and Mata had an influential game. Lampard and Malouda seem second choice now or perhaps will be restricted to CL and Cup matches but the Portugese, the Spaniard, and the Brazilian seem the best options for CHE attacking points here. With Torres out, we may see a mini-Drogba bandwagon. With so many good options at forward, I am not jumping. As for Swansea, the line-up proves what a crap shoot (or just crap) newly promoted forwards are as Danny Graham garnered splinters as Leroy Lita (himself lasting only 58 min) started up front. With Holt of Norwich restricted to a late cameo, and QPR's DJ Campbell not able to get a game (and Bothroyd firing blanks) . . . well, the extra money for a Hoillet or a Ba or Odemwingie as your squad forward seems well worth it.
6. Wigan v. Tottenham. We still don't know what Harry will do with a full squad available, since Defoe and Lennon were unavailable here, but it is pretty hard to see Van der Vaert or Adebayor sitting when healthy. As for Wigan, there is the continuing disappointment for those of us holding Victor Moses. He is a leader in 'successful dribbles made' and is a top 10 guy in shots, including on frame (he's hit the woodwork once) but, as of yet, no FF returns. And he's dropped to 4.9. He only plays home matches for my team and with BOL, FUL, BLA ahead, I am keeping faith with the youngster. He just needs a damn goal to get his confidence, so your Stoosher manager says optimistically.
7. Stoke City v. Man United. Proving once again, Stoke are good value at the Brittania. With question marks surrounding Rooney, there will no doubt be a major Nani bandwagon. But I think the easier swap is Hernandez. He'll be watching the midweek CL game on TV and surely his 'deadleg' will be healed by the time the Canaries reach Old Trafford next weekend. A game with 3+ goals in it for Man Utd surely. The one issue - and it's a big one - is that Rooney is now 12.5. Most of us Rooney holders will really struggle to get him back if we let him go now. A real dilemma.
8. QPR v. Aston Villa. I keep thinking Taraabt, SWP, or Barton will start to score consistently but so far, not so much. As for Villa, I saw a big chunk of this game, and I just think MacLeish is happy with 0-0 or 1-1 draws. Which makes it difficult to see a lot of value here except for Given, Warnock and now perhaps Hutton.
9. Sunderland's 4-0 romp over Stoke City . . . was that a year ago or a week ago ? I thought Bendtner would be a big success with the Black Cats, but not so far. And Sessegnon should be under strict instructions NOT to shoot unless he is inside the 6 yard box. The BBC coverage had a funny line about the fans in row Z behind the Norwich goal being pleased when he was substituted on 69 minutes. A massive FF fail.
10. As for Norwich, Holt has proved a massive fail. And those of us who brought in Richie DeLaet as a budget defender and were pleased with some early season FF returns now have 4.0 of deadweight on their bench. Ouch.
11. Rooney. The injury to Rooney (and his prices rises to 12.5 now) made me think whether he is truly a 'must have'. And the answer is . . . no. He has played only 2 'full' seasons in the last 5. Those were both great years in terms of FF scores. But . . . the 3 less than full seasons saw him average about 140 points. So, the gamble here is that Rooney will play a 'full' season. Meanwhile, at 2.0M+ less: Nani had 198 points last year, Ashley Young, for a much less potent Villa, has averaged 160 points a year for the last 4 years, and Chicharito had just 32 points fewer than Rooney in the equivalent of 10 less games last year. With the emergence of other slightly less expensive forwards too (Aguero, RvP, Adebayor, Dzeko, Bent, Torres(??)), Rooney strikes me as expendable. Of course, you will want an attacking MNU player (or 2). As long as you are willing to hold steady when Nani/Young/Hernandez face inevitable rotation, the cheaper option is there.
With 2 free transfers this week, Stooshers are looking to find a way to get Man Utd attacking exposure in if Rooney is really injured. One problem is . . . the LMs. Early week transfers have increasingly become a problem in FF in the last year. Prices change very quickly now on some targets, as fewer managers seem to wait until Friday to make transfers. This week is a prime example as Nani has already risen despite Man Utd's CL game in Basle. Obviously, some are gambling that the Portugese will be rested (a safe bet in my view) in midweek, but there are a number of potential injuries with to other members of your squad with so many teams in Europe. My squad is not so deep that I feel comfortable risking an early transfer.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Saturday morning FF !!
Looking forward to the morning game - Everton v Man City. I was hoping to see Royston Drenthe but he hasn't been picked to start. I think Everton will give Man City a hard time. With Richards and Silva in my team but with a soft spot for David Moyes and American Tim Howard in goal, it's the old dilemma of rooting for an underdog team against my FF interests.
Gone for Suarez as captain. I think this Everton v Man City game will be a tight affair, so I backed off Silva. And the small pitch at Stoke will help the Potters clog the middle to make things tough for Rooney. I seriously thought about Boswinga because you can see 3-0 for the Blues v. Swansea. But ultimately it was Suarez against Wolves at Anfield. Liverpool had a good midweek win to rebound from last week's pounding at WHL and I expect Dalglish will get a response today. Suarez hasn't had a breakout game yet, and perhaps this is the week.
Ever the optimist on my captain selection . . .
Gone for Suarez as captain. I think this Everton v Man City game will be a tight affair, so I backed off Silva. And the small pitch at Stoke will help the Potters clog the middle to make things tough for Rooney. I seriously thought about Boswinga because you can see 3-0 for the Blues v. Swansea. But ultimately it was Suarez against Wolves at Anfield. Liverpool had a good midweek win to rebound from last week's pounding at WHL and I expect Dalglish will get a response today. Suarez hasn't had a breakout game yet, and perhaps this is the week.
Ever the optimist on my captain selection . . .
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
A few notes on GW5 . . .
A few notes on the GW . . .
1. For the first time, I had time to examine the schedule, evaluate home/away/favorable rotation. So, as an experiment, I have gone to a strict rotation system with some of my squad players this year . . .or at least since the faux WC of GW2. So we have . . .
Vorm/Schwarzer
W.Brown/D.Simpson
Petrov/Moses
GW2-GW4 were a bit of a bust for the experiment, with a +1 result, largely due to the good defensive work of NWC away @ SUN and QPR. But this week proved a massive plus - Vorm (8); Brown(6); Petrov(7) v. Schwarzer(2), Simpson(2) and Moses(2) or a +15. (I did play Simpson this week instead of Boswinga, but the point should be clear.
Of course, I am not going to rotate my top guys, but I think as you WC or make transfers, you should evaluate the rotation options. I firmly believe that it makes more sense to have budget guys who rotate home/away as opposed to just transferring in the 'hot' budget guy de jour (which seems so like chasing last week's points), or a player at the low end of the budget scale because he makes 0.5 available.
2. My last post suggested Aguero was close to a 'must-have' and he provided further evidence in GW5. I don't think Mancini's rotation plans are a big deal. A top forward will still score 150+ even if he plays only 2250+ minutes. I wish I had him or wish I could get him in in less than 3 weeks.
3. Last week I swapped D.Graham for Adebayor. That proved the single most inspired Stooshers move in 2 years. Graham didn't play and Adebayor was at the heart of Tottenham's demolition of Liverpool. Adebayor is a proven, brilliant, forward on his day (he scored 24 goals for Arsenal a short few years ago) and at 8.0 - a major bargain. The lesson: trust your intuition if it's a free transfer and looks decent long term value.
4. Yes, Chelsea lost 3-1 but anyone watching the game will know that it could have gone another direction had Ramires converted Torres' cross midway through the first half. Chelsea created a ton of chances and I think the match brings Torres back on the FF map. He was the most dangerous forward on the pitch and should have had 3 goals and an assist. AVB is an impressive coach and is trying to develop a quick 1 or 2 touch style, always with the idea to play Torres in early. It's a style I like and I think can be successful backed by a strudy defense with attacking elements of its own (Boswinga, Cole, Luiz). Chelsea really switched on in the second half when Anelka substituted in for Lampard. I think Chelsea's best line-up includes Meireles, Mata, Ramires, Anelka, Torres. Which leaves Mikel, Sturridge, Malouda, and Lampard (and Drogba) on the periphery. Meireles seems to have taken the deep role off Mikel, but with a bit more attacking intent. Lots of balls played aggressively forward, quick combinations with the other mids, and the occasionaly foray forward. I think Anelka's performance will have demonstrated to AVB that Sturridge should come off the bench. The key player here is Torres. Was this match a 1-off? Time will tell, but the Spanish choir boy is now down to 10.5. AVB appears to have decided the attack should center on Torres and Chelsea have a good near term schedule . . . .
5. Which brings me to 'yes, I know it was just one game but . . . ' -
(i) well, yes,Torres.
(ii) if you are going old school (i.e., a 'squad' budget forward) you could do worse than David Hoilett for 6.0. Yakubu came on to put the sword to Arsenal but the young Canadian provided his 3rd assist of the season and looked the main tormenter of the at-sea Arsenal defense.
(iii) I watched a ton of the Villa/NWC game and was blown away that Cabaye got nothing in FF terms from the game. Bossed a few games so far for NWC. A good schedule ahead for NWC and the Frenchman is 6.0 and on free kicks. Arfa is reputed to be coming back, so that may be a factor, but Cabaye is impressvie.
(iv) Not just 1 game but 2 for the new look QPR and a 3-0 demolition of WW @ the Molinieux. Depending on your taste, SWP, Joey Barton or preseason favoriteTaarabt looking very, very up for it. And priced right. 2 CS on the bounce for the London side. I had Gabbidon in GW1 and after their pommeling by Bolton 4-0 dropped him. If you are looking for a budget defender, time to reinvest ?
(v) Sunderland had a blinder this week, but the only guy I don't think is a 1-off is Seb Larsson. On free kicks, and now with a natural target in Bendtner, the Swede looks decent value at 6.5.
Finally, (vi) a lot of folks will be dumping out Suarez after Liverpool's abysmal performance at WHL. But this week they are home v. Wolves. I might captain him. His performances have been strong and he never stops running. An unfortunate habit of running his mouth and stupid, petty fouls does not diminish his potential against a weak team at home.
I will look to do a GW preview Friday.
1. For the first time, I had time to examine the schedule, evaluate home/away/favorable rotation. So, as an experiment, I have gone to a strict rotation system with some of my squad players this year . . .or at least since the faux WC of GW2. So we have . . .
Vorm/Schwarzer
W.Brown/D.Simpson
Petrov/Moses
GW2-GW4 were a bit of a bust for the experiment, with a +1 result, largely due to the good defensive work of NWC away @ SUN and QPR. But this week proved a massive plus - Vorm (8); Brown(6); Petrov(7) v. Schwarzer(2), Simpson(2) and Moses(2) or a +15. (I did play Simpson this week instead of Boswinga, but the point should be clear.
Of course, I am not going to rotate my top guys, but I think as you WC or make transfers, you should evaluate the rotation options. I firmly believe that it makes more sense to have budget guys who rotate home/away as opposed to just transferring in the 'hot' budget guy de jour (which seems so like chasing last week's points), or a player at the low end of the budget scale because he makes 0.5 available.
2. My last post suggested Aguero was close to a 'must-have' and he provided further evidence in GW5. I don't think Mancini's rotation plans are a big deal. A top forward will still score 150+ even if he plays only 2250+ minutes. I wish I had him or wish I could get him in in less than 3 weeks.
3. Last week I swapped D.Graham for Adebayor. That proved the single most inspired Stooshers move in 2 years. Graham didn't play and Adebayor was at the heart of Tottenham's demolition of Liverpool. Adebayor is a proven, brilliant, forward on his day (he scored 24 goals for Arsenal a short few years ago) and at 8.0 - a major bargain. The lesson: trust your intuition if it's a free transfer and looks decent long term value.
4. Yes, Chelsea lost 3-1 but anyone watching the game will know that it could have gone another direction had Ramires converted Torres' cross midway through the first half. Chelsea created a ton of chances and I think the match brings Torres back on the FF map. He was the most dangerous forward on the pitch and should have had 3 goals and an assist. AVB is an impressive coach and is trying to develop a quick 1 or 2 touch style, always with the idea to play Torres in early. It's a style I like and I think can be successful backed by a strudy defense with attacking elements of its own (Boswinga, Cole, Luiz). Chelsea really switched on in the second half when Anelka substituted in for Lampard. I think Chelsea's best line-up includes Meireles, Mata, Ramires, Anelka, Torres. Which leaves Mikel, Sturridge, Malouda, and Lampard (and Drogba) on the periphery. Meireles seems to have taken the deep role off Mikel, but with a bit more attacking intent. Lots of balls played aggressively forward, quick combinations with the other mids, and the occasionaly foray forward. I think Anelka's performance will have demonstrated to AVB that Sturridge should come off the bench. The key player here is Torres. Was this match a 1-off? Time will tell, but the Spanish choir boy is now down to 10.5. AVB appears to have decided the attack should center on Torres and Chelsea have a good near term schedule . . . .
5. Which brings me to 'yes, I know it was just one game but . . . ' -
(i) well, yes,Torres.
(ii) if you are going old school (i.e., a 'squad' budget forward) you could do worse than David Hoilett for 6.0. Yakubu came on to put the sword to Arsenal but the young Canadian provided his 3rd assist of the season and looked the main tormenter of the at-sea Arsenal defense.
(iii) I watched a ton of the Villa/NWC game and was blown away that Cabaye got nothing in FF terms from the game. Bossed a few games so far for NWC. A good schedule ahead for NWC and the Frenchman is 6.0 and on free kicks. Arfa is reputed to be coming back, so that may be a factor, but Cabaye is impressvie.
(iv) Not just 1 game but 2 for the new look QPR and a 3-0 demolition of WW @ the Molinieux. Depending on your taste, SWP, Joey Barton or preseason favoriteTaarabt looking very, very up for it. And priced right. 2 CS on the bounce for the London side. I had Gabbidon in GW1 and after their pommeling by Bolton 4-0 dropped him. If you are looking for a budget defender, time to reinvest ?
(v) Sunderland had a blinder this week, but the only guy I don't think is a 1-off is Seb Larsson. On free kicks, and now with a natural target in Bendtner, the Swede looks decent value at 6.5.
Finally, (vi) a lot of folks will be dumping out Suarez after Liverpool's abysmal performance at WHL. But this week they are home v. Wolves. I might captain him. His performances have been strong and he never stops running. An unfortunate habit of running his mouth and stupid, petty fouls does not diminish his potential against a weak team at home.
I will look to do a GW preview Friday.
Monday, September 12, 2011
The Monday Wreckage
It is always easy to think about several beer-infused transfers on a Sunday night after watching the week's highlights when your captain selection was a failure. Especially when there is one FF maxim which everyone knows and seems about as true as anything in FF: 'pick form over fixtures'. I ignored the hottest forward in football, Rooney, and went with Walcott. Part of this decision was based on my preference for players playing at home. My default rule for selecting a captain in the event there is no massively obvious choice is (i) the best available midfielder (ii) at home (iii) against the poorest opposition. So, for me, this came down to Walcott or Silva (although I gave Rooney a very long think as well). Oh-dee-doh. So far, 18,2,44,4 from the Stoosher captains. One thought experiment I am having is just handing the armband to Rooney every week. No thinking, no agonizing, just simples . . . a few observations about GW4 (which is not quite over with NCW v QPR still on tap) . . .
1. The Man City frontline again proves problematic. Dzeko was rested, although that was not a surprise to me, given he played 2 tough Euro Cup games in the break. Apparently it was a surprise to the 400,000+ who transferred him in last week (to be fair, many of those will certainly have selected him for the long-term), only to see the big Bosnian watch his Argentine teammate's hat trick from the bench. There may be an inclination for some thinking managers though, to avoid the MNC front line because of rotation concerns. Despite this, I think there is a case for Dzeko and, especially, Aguero. Historically, great strikers in FF don't necessarily need huge minutes to get those monster scores we all crave, especially when we've captained one. So, Rooney, last year on 2200+ min/11 goals/142 points; in 2009/10: 2700+/26/224. Tevez last year - 2500+/21/185. Torres in 2007/08 - 2500+/24/193; RvP last year - 1700+/18/157. If Mancini prioritizes the Prem, I think Aguero will certainly start a minimum of 25 games (2250 min). If he starts 30 games it is not hard to see Aguero picking up 18-20 goals. I think Aguero is good value even at 11.0. If you are prepared for the occasional frustration, the upside, I think, is huge. I don't have him but I am starting to think I should.
2. Chelsea huffed and puffed but couldn't seem to blow the Sunderland house down. Chelsea's attack seems a no-go area, given rotation and lack of form. I heard on a British football talk show today that Torres was dropped for comments about his teammates 'slow' play. From a guy who appears to have lost a step or 3 in the last couple of years. Ouch. And Sturridge has thickened the plot with a goal. I do think Mata will be given a run in the team and may be worth a look after this week's MNU game. I haven't looked at the Opta stats yet, but the one player I am intrigued by is Raul Meireles. I listened to the CHE game on Saturday (I had a loooooong drive into the cornfields of Indiana to see a college football game at Manchester College) and the Chelsea commentators were full of praise for his quick, 1-touch, attacking passes. If he is nailed on for starts, he could be the entre into that Chelsea attack, which, you know, sooner or later will score goals consistently. Remember, Meireles had 128 points in 2500+ minutes last year and hardly played under Hodgson. I saw him a lot last year and really liked his game.
3. Two guys popped onto the radar this week in the mid-price range at forward, Emmanuel Adebayor and Peter Odemwingie. I rode Odemwingie for most of last season (swapping him out for Suarez just before he went on his best run of the season . . . Satan, damn you !!). If you are relatively new to the game, Adebayor is a fantastic forward, full of goals if he gets minutes. So, if you are not riding the '3 big-ticket forward' bandwagon, 2 guys to think about.
4. 2 guys with seats at the bar of Stooshers' Last Chance Saloon; Moses and Graham. I selected Moses on the back of a promising preseason, he looked to be an easy slot in for N'Zogbia at Wigan, and because he rotates home/away perfectly with Bolton's Martin Petrov. Well, and he was cheap. And perhaps away at MNC is not the week to make a decision to dump him, but 4 games, no goals, no assists, is not good. I took Graham because I figured him for the odd start at home against the bottom half of the table. I penciled him in for 9-10 goals, with dreams of another DJ Campbell find. And the Opta stats show Graham is fizzing in his share of shots, unfortunately, from every highlight show I have seen, they are all right at the GK. With 2 really good mid-priced options now, Graham may lose his seat at the bar.
5. A guy I had while he was at Birmingham because he was cheaper than Roger Johnson, Scott Dann, came in straightaway to Blackburn and by all accounts played extremely well. But 5.0 for a Blackburn defender ? Brrrr.
1. The Man City frontline again proves problematic. Dzeko was rested, although that was not a surprise to me, given he played 2 tough Euro Cup games in the break. Apparently it was a surprise to the 400,000+ who transferred him in last week (to be fair, many of those will certainly have selected him for the long-term), only to see the big Bosnian watch his Argentine teammate's hat trick from the bench. There may be an inclination for some thinking managers though, to avoid the MNC front line because of rotation concerns. Despite this, I think there is a case for Dzeko and, especially, Aguero. Historically, great strikers in FF don't necessarily need huge minutes to get those monster scores we all crave, especially when we've captained one. So, Rooney, last year on 2200+ min/11 goals/142 points; in 2009/10: 2700+/26/224. Tevez last year - 2500+/21/185. Torres in 2007/08 - 2500+/24/193; RvP last year - 1700+/18/157. If Mancini prioritizes the Prem, I think Aguero will certainly start a minimum of 25 games (2250 min). If he starts 30 games it is not hard to see Aguero picking up 18-20 goals. I think Aguero is good value even at 11.0. If you are prepared for the occasional frustration, the upside, I think, is huge. I don't have him but I am starting to think I should.
2. Chelsea huffed and puffed but couldn't seem to blow the Sunderland house down. Chelsea's attack seems a no-go area, given rotation and lack of form. I heard on a British football talk show today that Torres was dropped for comments about his teammates 'slow' play. From a guy who appears to have lost a step or 3 in the last couple of years. Ouch. And Sturridge has thickened the plot with a goal. I do think Mata will be given a run in the team and may be worth a look after this week's MNU game. I haven't looked at the Opta stats yet, but the one player I am intrigued by is Raul Meireles. I listened to the CHE game on Saturday (I had a loooooong drive into the cornfields of Indiana to see a college football game at Manchester College) and the Chelsea commentators were full of praise for his quick, 1-touch, attacking passes. If he is nailed on for starts, he could be the entre into that Chelsea attack, which, you know, sooner or later will score goals consistently. Remember, Meireles had 128 points in 2500+ minutes last year and hardly played under Hodgson. I saw him a lot last year and really liked his game.
3. Two guys popped onto the radar this week in the mid-price range at forward, Emmanuel Adebayor and Peter Odemwingie. I rode Odemwingie for most of last season (swapping him out for Suarez just before he went on his best run of the season . . . Satan, damn you !!). If you are relatively new to the game, Adebayor is a fantastic forward, full of goals if he gets minutes. So, if you are not riding the '3 big-ticket forward' bandwagon, 2 guys to think about.
4. 2 guys with seats at the bar of Stooshers' Last Chance Saloon; Moses and Graham. I selected Moses on the back of a promising preseason, he looked to be an easy slot in for N'Zogbia at Wigan, and because he rotates home/away perfectly with Bolton's Martin Petrov. Well, and he was cheap. And perhaps away at MNC is not the week to make a decision to dump him, but 4 games, no goals, no assists, is not good. I took Graham because I figured him for the odd start at home against the bottom half of the table. I penciled him in for 9-10 goals, with dreams of another DJ Campbell find. And the Opta stats show Graham is fizzing in his share of shots, unfortunately, from every highlight show I have seen, they are all right at the GK. With 2 really good mid-priced options now, Graham may lose his seat at the bar.
5. A guy I had while he was at Birmingham because he was cheaper than Roger Johnson, Scott Dann, came in straightaway to Blackburn and by all accounts played extremely well. But 5.0 for a Blackburn defender ? Brrrr.
Friday, September 9, 2011
Guardian Squad Sheets
Welcome to my blog. I am a massive, massive Fantasy Premier League fan. But live in Michigan, USA. So, I always feel at a disadvantage to the English sites and blogs. I religiously watch many of the EPL matches every week (most Europeans are shocked to learn that Americans can watch 5-6 EPL games a week and several highlight shows). At the same time, I find a certain distance can provide an idiosyncratic view. Thus, this blog. The analysis you see here will be big on a statistical approach. I try to approach managing my side with patience and discipline. But I also drink too much beer. And don't really have . . . patience and discipline. So, often I will make suggestions or present ideas I don't have the patience or discipline to follow . . .but I also have a strong contrarian streak, and so while I review the best Fantasy Football sites like FFS and Brit news websites like the BBC and the Guardian, and other English sources, my take, you will find, is slightly different. My first entry is the Guardian Sqaud Sheets. My current team - Vorm/Schwarzer; Boswinga, M.Richards, W.Brown, Simpson, DeLaet; Arteta, Walcott, Silva, Perov, Moses; Rooney, Suarez, Graham. My first take is on the Guardian's Squad Sheets:
NWC - seems R.Taylor's partner is about to give birth and NWC just bought Davide Santon, but the Guardian has R.Taylor nailed on. Hmm . . .
MNC - as I predict, the Guardian has Dzeko on the bench for this one, with Tevez starting. The Guardian also reports (and has starting) M.Richards fit and predicted he will be back in the side.
TOT - the set-up they predict is intriguing. Parker and Huddlestone holding; Modric with the free role in behind Adebayor - so a 4-5-1. No Defoe. I hadn't thought about this as the line-up but it makes some sense as an away line-up. What else is interesting is Walker comes in. If he can win that position he may be worth investment in the future.
ARS - the predicted line-up has Arteta deeper than Ramsey but I predict Arteta will be the more forward. I would love to see this game but I will be traveling. I will hope to catch a replay. I'd really like to see Swansea as well and make a judgment about Graham. It was about this time last year that I grabbed Odemwingie after an eye-opening performance against ARS.
STK - not really a surprise, but they predict Couch goes straight in for K.Jones, with Walters keeping his place. I guess on the theory that Jones will be fatigued after 2 int'ls and a flight back from Jamaica. The guys that intrigue me here are Etherington and Pennant. If you go on the theory that one of Jones or Crouch will start every game (or sub each other off), then you have an aerial threat for 90 minutes, every single game. Neither Crouch nor Jones are particularly prolific goal scorers (Jones -7,10,9,9 - the last 4 years; Crouch slightly more erratic but never more than 10) but both will attack the goal and give STK a serious goal threat for 90 minutes, every single game. I always felt that Jones wasn't always up for it or when he came off you wondered who might score. But now, STK have a big man to attack crosses and free kicks 38/90. Unfortuantely for me, STK and BOL don't rotate all that well or Etherington would be in for Moses in a heartbeat.
LIV - predicting bench duty for Andy Carroll. I think Suarez played for his national team over the break, so this is an interesting prediction.
CHE - this is the weirdest one of all. They are predicting Romeu (who I had to wikepedia to find out about) to take Mikel's place; Mata/Torres/Sturridge as the front 3 and Ivanovic to replace Boswinga with Luiz partnering Terry. Is someone having a laugh ? Or will AVB be looking to tighten it up away ? Boswinga is off to a phenomenal start and I just cannot see him sitting v. the likes of Sunderland. I actually don't think Luiz will start; I think he will use his 2 big boys to counter Bendtner. And I can't see Sturridge straight in. Someone's having a laugh.
The armband - this is a very difficult decision this week (when isn't it?). There has been no talk - that I can find in the Brit papers or FF sites - about the supposed hamstring problem Walcott had which saw him replaced for the second England game. He wasn't even in the squad for the second game. Perhaps a 'secret' deal with Wenger to play him only once ? Don't know. I am going to gamble here and captain Walcott. I see 2-4 goals for Arsenal and I see Walcott getting one. This, of course, assumes ARS are not hiding a hamstring problem. I am thinking about Silva too, because I suspect Wigan will be on their heels throughout but I also suspect they may provide more resistance than everyone expects. 2-0 or 3-0. But MNC are perfectly capable of carving goals without the ministrations of Silva, whereas I think Walcott is central to ARS. And Walcott is up against a Championship level defender. Assuming ARS aren't hiding a hamstring problem. Christ, the armband decision. The 2 other Stoosher options are (i) Rooney and (ii) Martin Petrov. MNU will surely score against a team that kept all of 5 CS last year. This one has 3-2 or 4-2 written all over it. I also think Petrov will be amongst the points. He had a run out against Smalling last week (Eng v Bul) and I noticed in the BBC commentary he got a fair few crosses in. But Bulgaria doesn't have K.Davies or Klasnic.
I may change my mind before deadline, but Walcott just edges it for me. I remember 3-4 monster games from him last year, hoping he can repeat. Assuming ARS are not hiding a hamstring problem . . . krikey.
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