Differentials are getting hard to come by

With Ba and Cisse returning early, and with Balotelli's suspension pushing Dzeko into some manager's thoughts (only me and a few others apparently, there appears to be a Ba feeding frenzy), I've been thinking about team make-up and the differentials that will (i) help me grow my minileague lead (rust never sleeps) or (ii) might help others improve their minileague position.

 

I guess the key point is the lack of differentials we're seeing in most teams (I am excluding the 'ghost ship' teams here).  I am seeing a lot of RMT teams with, essentially, 5 mids and 3 forwards a manager will want in his team most weeks.

 

So you'll see something like -  

Silva/Bale/Dempsey/Valencia/Sessegnon - RvP/Aguero/Sturridge with a plan to bring in Ba for Sturridge) 

 

Of course, you can only start 7.  And this issue is typically dismissed with the rationale 'it's a good problem to have'.  This may be contrarian but, well, no, it's not.  It's a waste of assets.  If we assume you've paid at least 6.5 for the least of your front 8 (as in the example here), you are wasting at least 1.0/1.5 every week - and more if you sit anyone costing more that, if we presume one's bench should be filled with 4.0-5.5(at most) guys.

 

I currently have Moses (Bale/Valencia/Sessegnon/Dempsey) in my midfield but have been thinking about bringing Silva or another elite or tier 2 midfielder in.  But that sets up a 5-man midfield with players I don't want to sub out and a front 3 I won't be inclined to sit either (RvP/Aguero/Sturridge(or Ba, if I jump on that bandwagon)).  Now Sessegnon/Ba set up a perfect NWC/SUN rotation pairing.  But.  Of Sessegnon's 5G/8A, 3G/3A have come away; Ba has actually scored more goals away from St. James Park than in its friendly confines.  And you are wasting significant funds having these 6.5+ or the 7.3+ assets on your bench.  In my case, I can put a number on it, since I have the 4.8 Moses in my team as perfect bench fodder (90 min every week, occasional 3+ games) - I waste 1.7+ sitting Sessegnon or would waste 2.4+ if I acquired and sat Ba. That's the difference between sitting bench fodder and having the supposed 'good' problem. So.

 

This leads me to a couple of conclusions.  You either need a bench fodder player in your front 8; someone whose role is to serve as an able replacement in the event one of your front 7 sits; or you need 2 high end budget guys to rotate in your front 8.  A second conclusion about differentials follows from a rough eyeballing of most RMTs - most teams (active, as opposed to the 'ghost ship' teams still floating around out there - about half of my minileague, for instance) are settling on a selection of 7/8 from among about 14 front players-

 

Silva/Bale/Valencia/Dempsey/Sessegnon/Walters/Dyer/Nani(inj?)

RvP/Rooney/Aguero/Adebayor/Sturridge/Ba/Dzeko

 

Only Dyer looks like he is still subject to selection as a budget alternative, otherwise teams are loading up on  this group of elite guys or mid-price guys who have so far proved to have significant value.  The good news is selecting 7 from this group does afford many managers excess funds.  What to do then ? 

 

My conclusion here is perhaps controversial but it is this - with the 'staleness' (or lack of differentials) of attacking selection options, differentials will come from (1) the steady accretion of points in defense or (2) opting for a sound rotation strategy with 2 or even 4 'under-the-radar' types in your attacking positions.  With respect to (2) here, there aren't a ton of options that I see at the right price (Ramires/Zamora is one at the high-end of what you might want to pay for rotation guys) or who are guaranteed starts (Sessegnon/Ben Arfa in this category, in that Ben Arfa's place is not nailed down).  But if you examine the schedule and the 'value' filter in FPL or review the numbers in the FFS Members section, you may be able to find a really solid pairing or 2. 

 

So the first option seems perhaps the best path forward - spend the extra cash afforded by some of the mid-priced options among the 14 or so 'standard' attacking picks and add an extra elite team* defender even 2; and gamble on one of these selections being a defender with some offensive upside (Vermaelen, G.Johnson, A.Cole, Richards, Ivanovic).  I might also even recommend thinking about a Hart or Reina or a Lindegaard/deGea combo in goal and doubling down as your pick's schedule presents CS opportunities.  This is contrary to most standard FF manager advice and certainly won't see your team rocket up the table.  But a steady accumulation of CS for 2-3 defenders can turn a lot of 30-40 point weeks into 50+.  Simply put, if you are paying attention, your attacking differentials are limited to timely hitting the armband selection a few weeks in a row, since most teams have the same attacking players.  Are 4 elite team defenders too many ?  I think it might be a big differential.

 

*For argument sake, I am going to put MNC, MUN, CHE, ARS and LIV in this 'elite' defense category, although an argument can be made that TOT have kept more CS and deserve the designation more than CHE.  And the argument can be made against ARS inclusion, although my view is they are a different team w/Vermaelen at center back.  I guess I would make the further qualification that you should always look at the near-term (6 games out or so) schedule too, because aside from the 2 Manchesters, all of the teams in this group have had ups and downs.

Wildcarding

On the back of 3 straight red arrows, I used my January WC at the earliest possible opportunity.  Besides the fact that I'm simply weak-willed when it comes to WC (I revamped my team in GW2 after FPL screwed the pooch in GW1, then used my normal WC in GW7), I also felt the team needed some shake-up after I had dropped out of the top 10,000.  Not that I am used to those giddy heights but to paraphrase a great Woody Allen line, a FF team is like a shark; when it's not moving forward, you've got a dead shark.  Or something.  Anyway, my GW20 team will be on the left, and I'll bold the guys I brought in on the right, then offer some commentary.

GK
Vorm
Friedel >>Mignolet
I seriously thought about riding the American for the rest of the season and dropping Vorm for, say Ruddy, as a pure backup, but I wouldn't have made enough money on Vorm to justify it.  I also think 2 relatively inexpensive GK who rotate well is the way to go.  Vorm is the only guy I've had in my team since GW1 and I can see SWN keeping a few more CS.  I went for Mignolet at 1.3 in savings on Friedel and I think MON has reinstilled belief in SUN, so I like Mignolet in tandem with Vorm.  There are better rotation candidates (Al-Haibsi, Hennessey, Foster) with Vorm, but I think MON has the ship pointed in the right direction and I think Mignolet looks a top keeper.

Defenders
Enrique
J.Evans
Simpson>>Williamson
McAuley>>Clichy
Hanley>>Dawson
A quick look at the left hand column and you can see why I wanted to WC.  I bought Enrique early on and LIV continue to offer good value in defense.  J.Evans is virtually nailed on at MUN on his return from injury and especially so now that P.Jones is out.  On 3.7% ownership, Evans has seven clean sheets in a part-time season.  I like NWC's defense but I think Williamson has a slightly better chance of getting a goal from a set piece than the defensive minded Simpson; this was a sideways move pricewise for me, so an easy one to make.  I'm not going to recap my stupidity in bringing in Hanley but it's quite clear that he had to go; McAuley is cheap but WBA are just too inconsistent to justify anyone in that defense except maybe Foster in goal. I feel a MNC defender is essential and Clichy is the cheapest guy in the bunch, although I'll acknowledge he is under some threat from Kolarov.  I almost went for Lescott but I think he's under threat from Toure when he returns from ACN and I didn't want to burn a transfer later.  I went for Michael Dawson here, although I'm going to acknowledge this was a mistake; I was overly concerned that TOT were playing WW in GW21, and I was afraid all those in my league with BAE would steal 6 points from me.  Of course, Wolves scored and it was a pointless exercise.  I will probably keep Dawson v. Wigan in GW23 (although he too, is under threat from Ledley King as we saw in the MNC game) and then swap him out for a budget guy that rotates well with Williamson or 'big up' to a MNC guy, like Kompany.

A bigger point here about the defense; and that point is the so-called 'Merritt Rule', named after my good friend and manager of ForzaInter, often referred to here (he's 3rd in our minileague and in 5 years of playing this game I've beaten him only once).  The Merritt Rule is simple: a FF team must carry 3 'elite' team defenders, preferably the cheapest ones that start, but 3 even if you have to pay a premium for one.  This was an iron clad rule for me until last year when it seemed like CS became less predictable.  But as you can see above, I'm back as a believer in the rule (Enrique, Clichy, Evans).  I am also thinking about the Merritt Rule + 1; I am toying with the idea of replacing Dawson with another MNC defender.

Midfield
Bale
Valencia
*Nani>>(GW22)Dempsey
Silva>>Sessegnon
Drenthe>>Moses
Bale is cheaper than VdV, so he stays although I think both will score big this year.  Valencia killed last season when he came back into the lineup after his ankle break last winter/spring, and when he came back from injury this year in December, I jumped.  He's been brilliant and offers MUN something few teams have; a true out-and-out winger.  But he's also good in front of goal too; 2 goals and 8 assists since GW14.  I kept Nani for the game against Bolton but switched him out in GW22 for Dempsey.  Jackpot.  My big, big, big gamble: I dropped Silva for Sessegnon.  Sessegnon is on fire though, and seemed strangely under the radar.  I feel a bit like a guy walking around without any pants on without Nani and Silva, especially Mr. Consistent, Silva.  I will only have lost 0.4 on Silva if I get him back; which I am thinking about.  I wouldn't recommend dropping Silva; when you watch MNC and you see the guy get every 3rd touch on that team, you know an assist is coming.  Plus, he's on 46% ownership.  My rationale was: I needed the money for Aguero, and Aguero's points will 'cover' the loss of Silva.  Not so far.  I feel less chuffed about Nani; Valencia looks the more dangerous midfielder for MUN and Dempsey, while playing for a team averaging 0.67 gpg away from Craven Cottage, is a steady performer, who, at the end of the day, will be north of 160 FF points this year.  Until Rooney gets his mojo back, Valencia is plenty of attacking MUN cover.

I also looked at a 2 budget rotation model in midfield (w/3 'elite' mids and 3 'elite' forwards), and guys like M.Davies and C.Eagles(BOL), A.Surman(NOR), J.Morrison(WBA), D.Murphy(FUL), S.Petrov and S.Ireland (AVL), and N.Dyer and way under the radar Gylfi Sigurdsson (SWN), all look like worthy guys you could rotate consistently and expect returns.

Forwards 
RvP
Sturridge
Adebayor>>Aguero
I think you are crazy not to own RvP.  Essentially, I plan to captain him about 90% of the time.  If you don't have him by now, you've got to think about his price and whether you can get good value for that money elsewhere.  But his goalscoring record over the last 12 months is phenomenal.  I kept Sturridge, although I actually dropped him and brought in Yakubu, made money off Yakubu's price rise, and brought Sturridge back.  I'm not sold on Sturridge (well, not sold on Chelsea), but he's reasonably cheap for access to the 4th highest goal scoring team in the Prem.  And he's their leading goalscorer at forward.  But he's the guy I might drop for the cash if I decide to bring Silva back in.  There are a number of budget forward options who might match Sturridge's goal production thi year: Morison(NOR), Helguson(QPR), Graham(SWN), Yakubu(BLA), Fletcher(WW).  My favorite in the high-end budget category is Zamora.

I also don't think Adebayor has forgotten how to score, but I've felt like Aguero is a 'must have' for most of the season, so I sacrificed Adebayor, who I'd had since very, very early in the season.  Unfortunately, I didn't really examine Aguero's record in detail until his second straight 2-pointer for me; 8 goals in GW1-5; 6 goals in GW6-22.  With Balotelli threatened with a suspension, I am looking at Dzeko either in tandem with Aguero or as a replacement for Aguero.  I still feel good about Aguero (good attacking numbers, looks like MNC's main dangerman when you watch MNC), but I'm a little nervous that I sacrificed Silva for him.

So those were my selections and the thinking behind them. I've also outlined some variations I thought about running with; and I've mentioned my trepidation about some of my moves.  Keep the wheat and toss the chaffe.  The WC has paid off so far; 2 green arrows and into the top 3300+ in the world.  But rust never sleeps . . .

GW22 Takeaway: once a season satisfaction

When you spend as much time researching, thinking, obsessing over this game as I do, when you get it right, it is so truly satisfying.  A 74 point week gave me clear breathing room in my minileague and took me to 3300+ in the world.  I used my Jan window WC in GW21(more later) and brought in Sessengon and Valencia and used my free this week to bring in Dempsey for Nani.  The Portugese tormented Johan Djourou to no FF effect; Dempsey, of course, went all hat-trick on Newcastle.  That threesome were able to cover a backline that garnered me zero, zip, nada, this week - Clichy, Williamson, Enrique - my only defensive points coming from Sunderland's Mignolet.  A few thoughts on the GW . . .

1.  Norwich keep Chelsea off the board.  I haven't been a believer in Norwich; I've felt they would fall to earth sooner or later.  Not so sure after a steely display and well-deserved point v. Chelsea (and learned Zak Whitbread is American by birth; Klinnsman you clueless f***, give this guy a call!!!).  Unfortunately, the Norwich midfield is a Lambert roulette wheel in terms of selection.  I really, really like Andrew Surman in this team at 4.4; his attacking statistics are good and in the games I have seen he looks a proper EPL winger, but Lambert has had him in and out recently. Morison is still the guy to look at in this team if your forward model is 2 elites/1 budget, but I've also been impressed with Grant Holt too.

As for Chelsea, pffft.  They look positively ponderous in attack.  I have Sturridge, who still seems the best way in to a team 4th in the league in goals scored, but my patience is running out, especially with so many budget options producing goals, 2 on offer in this one.  Meanwhile I was blown away that nearly 70,000 managers brought in Gary Cahill on his switch to Chelsea.  No reassurance of a starting role and Chelsea kept a CS w/o him.  Strange waste of a transfer for a guy who definitely should be on your Watchlist, not on your bench, just yet.

2.  Everton 1 v. Backburn 1.  The only thing interesting to me about this game was how dangerous David Dunn looked.  At 6.2 and with a looooooooooooong injury history, he's a gamble.  But when fit,well, he scored 9 league goals in 1700+ min 2 years ago and had 113 FF points.  And could easily have had a hat-trick Saturday.  If you are rotating a couple of budget guys in midfield, Dunn's not the worst punt as one of the 2.

3.  Fulham have a crazy second half.  I'm not going to say much here; I bigged up Dempsey in November and talked him up last week; I have reservations about being invested in Fulham's attack on the road but I put those aside and took my own advise and invested in the American.  I bigged up Zamora and Ruiz last week; Senderos and Kelly are worth thinking about in this team.  Danny Murphy is on pens and free kicks, and has terrific numbers in terms of possession and passing and is 2.5 cheaper than Dempsey or will be as the Dempsey bandwagon leaves the station.

4.  Neither Chelsea, nor Liverpool, nor Arsenal seem worthy of grabbing the 4th CL spot.  I've spoken about a Chelsea performance best described as, well, plodding; but Liverpool were carved open and then outworked by Bolton (go on you Wanderers !!!) and created next to nothing over the 90 minutes.  I'm keeping Enrique but it's hard to look at Liverpool's attacking players and think 'I need him in'.  It's a team that desperately needs Suarez back; if not to score, at least to create. 

And Arsenal look an RvP injury away from 15th.  I thought Ramsey might offer some FF value but he can't hit the ocean from the fucking pier; Walcott seemed to have been under the impression that Arsenal were in blue yesterday, and Andrey 'dead man walking' Arshavin came on for Oxley-Chamberlain in perhaps the most inexplicable substitution I've seen.  Ever.  The outside back situation is not of Wenger's creating (6 injuries) but it's hard to invest in a defense which gets beat like a drum down the left and right for 90 straight minutes.  Wenger's also got a bit of a dilemna ahead; Villa in the FA Cup on the weekend and then 2 league matches in the 7 days that follow.  Since Wenger appears to have no one not named van Persie or not in Africa who can, you know, score a goal, will he preserve RvP for league or throw him in v. Villa in an effort to grab some hardware ?  If he plays in the FA Cup, RvP won't be my captain in GW23 v. Bolton because I don't think he'll play.

5.  Phil Jones injury.  It looked bad, but he is listed as out for 2-3 weeks.  Whether that's an honest assessment who knows.  Man Utd's schedule may scare some, but I expect a Jonny Evans bandwagon.  If Evans (4.5) wasn't nailed on before, he is now.  You can get access to 3 starters (most games) in the 3 meanest defenses in the EPL for $15M (Evans, Agger, Clichy).  I'm just sayin'.

I wildcarded in GW21 and I'll try to do a post on those I brought in and those I considered as many (much more patient) managers have waited, and maybe my thought process might help you to think through your own WC.  

GW21 Takeaway

54 points on the GW off the WC (more later) and a green arrow for a slight bump to 11,893 in the world.  I went back and forth on the armband between Nani and RvP and finally chose Nani.  I saw a comment on another blog to the effect that the manager had simply quit trying to guess the hot hand or play the home/away odds and simply handed the armband every week to van Persie.  That's starting to make sense after so many captain 'fails'.

1. Aston Villa 1 v. Everton 1.  Both teams hanging around midtable.  But while I think Everton are a no-go FF area, Villa are kind of interesting.  Darren Bent is having a 'quiet' year, I guess, but he has 7 goals and 72 FF points (for one of the most negative coaches in the EPL, in my opinion).  And he's got 2 goals in his last 3 games.  And now McLeish has given Stephen Ireland a role in the hole behind Bent.  At 5.6, and having a world of talent, Ireland has the potential to be a massive value and differential if he continues in that attacking position.  Another interesting guy in this lineup is Stilian Petrov who came to Villa a few years ago advertized as a sort of attacking central mid from Celtic but has played deep and as a holding mid for Villa.  Until now.  His EA Sport PPI is the best for any player under 6.0, his attacking numbers as compiled on FFS are good, he's nailed on and isn't the worst option at 5.9.  Warnock at 4.9 has played every single minute this season, has 5 CS, 1 goal, and 2 assists.  And Shay Givens is back (4.7) after a 6 game injury layoff.  And I didn't mention Gabby Agbonlahor with 4 goals, 7 assists, at 7.0.  Oh, now I did.  Villa have wol, QPR, nwc, MNC, wig, bla, FUL, BOL before the schedule turns ugly in mid March.

2.  Blackburn 3 v. Fulham 1, go figure.  Yakubu sent off, Blackburn still win.  Fulham are 4-3-3 at home, 16 GS  15 GA, 1-5-5, away 7 GS 14 GA.  This is what scares me about biting on Dempsey - for 8.5 you want to play him every week but . . . he plays for a team scoring .64 gpg away.  Fulham have kept 7 CS this year, 4 home, 3 away (WIG, WBA, SUN).  What the numbers tell me is go budget on Fulham.  Zamora, Ruiz, Dembele (no, seriously, good attacking numbers) all might be decent value as a rotation forward if you are going with the '2 elite/1 budget' model or maybe a budget defender.  Kelly or Senderos anyone ?

3.  Lampard, goal.  Frank has scored 9 goals, 2 more than any other midfielder.  He's still one of the leading midfield FF point scorers, and but for AVB sitting him for Raul Meireles (really?) , there is little question he would be the leading midfield point scorer.  If, if, AVB, comes to his senses and gives Lampard a run.  Massive differential.  I wonder who Essien's return threatens ?  I've felt it was Ramires.  Same box-to-box type midfielder only better.  We'll see.

4.  Liverpool have scored 24 goals in 21 games.  When  0-0 at home to Stoke feels like a decent result, you know you are struggling for goals.  10 teams, 19th place Bolton included, have scored more than Liverpool.  I love Stevie Gerrard but I ain't going near Liverpool's attack.  That said, Liverpool have conceded the second fewest goals.  The short-term schedule's not that great - bol, wol, TOT, mun, EVE, ARS, but with 5 CS away, at least 1 and maybe 2 Liverpool defenders isn't the worst idea.

5.  Swansea, for real ?  Despite Wenger's whining about the penalty call, Swansea simply outplayed and outworked Arsenal.  This was the first game Swansea have conceded more that 1 goal at home and they had conceded only 4 all year.  Vorm, Rangel, Caulker, Williams, C. Taylor all good investments.  If you are late to the party or want to double up, Caulker is 4.0.  Sinclair at 6.3 has 90 FF points.  And Dyer looked brilliant against Arsenal at 4.7.  At different times, Joe Allen, Kemy Augustien, Mark Gower have all looked good value but it looks down to Sinclair and Dyer as the midfield picks here.  But the other guy here who is interesting is forward Danny Graham.  His price dropped like a stone as he opened the season with 6 goalless games; in the 15 since - 7 goals, 2 assists, 11 BPs. Swansea have been poor away though, and they play 4 of the next 6 away . . . but if you are playing the 2 elite/1 budget forward model, why not Danny Graham at home v. CHE and NOR and a flyer away at WBA ?  

14

Fulham

21

4

3

3

16

15

1

5

5

7

14

5

8

8

23

29

14

Fulham

21

4

3

3

16

15

1

5

5

7

14

5

8

8

23

29

GW20 Takeaway Part 2; and a bit about the WC

A drop to 12,000+ in the world, but more importantly, my minileague lead has shrunk to 31 points.  And my chief rival, ForzaInter is within 47.  There were a few lessons in the final game of GW20 and we are into the January window Wild Card.

1.  I did not see the Assou-Ekottu freight train coming.  He has now matched his prior career total for goals scored and exceeded his career assist total.  With a 24 point GW he is now within 3 points of his highest previous season FF point total.  I think I spent some time in a previous post slagging off AE and Walker vis-a-vis Friedel.  I'll just throw some salt and pepper on that crow . . . but I want to point out a really interesting bit of minileague strategy exercised by my minileague rival ForzaInter.  We went into the GW with Friedel; I had Bale and Adebayor as well.  I had fairly advertized I was captaining Friedel.  Forza performed a neat bit of neutralizing any advantage I might gain if Tottenham kept 2 CS - which, of course, they did.  He selected Bale and AE for a 4 point hit and captained Bale.  Pure upside for him; if Tottenham kept 2 CS, he had doubled down on TOT defense, while also maximizing his chances to take advantage if TOT broke big.  And then it was pure gravy when AE broke big.  No doubt in my mind Forza planned that bit.  I guess the lesson here is to take a comparative look at your rival's team to see if you can find away to neutralize an advantage and maximize a differential.  Clever.

2.  Stay invested in Tottenham ?  Certainly for another week.  Tottenham won the reverse fixture 2-0 and Wolves have come in for a few tonkings away.  Wigan comes to town in GW23.  But, in general, the TOT near-term schedule looks reasonably difficult (WW, mci, WIG, liv, NWC, ars, MUN, eve, STK, che).  That said, it's not a bad bunch of home games (and attacking titans Everton).  I guess I might continue to run with Tottenham defenders if I have them in and you can rotate them, unless you are a true believer in Tottenham and then let them ride as you might with MNC, MUN, or LIV defenders.  A guy who might have passed under the radar this week in all the AE excitement is Michael Dawson.  A Redknapp favorite, a BP in his first game back and 5.2. If Tottenham add Samba . . .

3.  Everton demonstrate not all DGW teams are worth sweating over.  There is always a belief that somehow, someway, there is a good investment in any DGW team. I spent a lot of time turning over various options, and settled on Drenthe. Suffice to say, had Drenthe stayed on the bench I would have added 1 more point with McAuley as an autosub.  Think.

4.  A few WC thoughts.  I pulled the trigger this week on the January window WC, in part, because I couldn't look at Drenthe (and my doofus selection of Grant Hanley) in my line-up anymore.  And because, well, . . . I'm weak.  Had I stayed with my team, I had 9 of 11 players at home and a few really good captain options.  So, a bit of buyer's remorse.  At the same time, with a couple of players with orange "i"s and 2 players I definitely wanted out, and with 3 important (to me) targets, it felt like now was as good a time as any.  But I think a few of the things you should have in mind in making the "when" to WC decision - (i) injuries, obviously; (ii) targets - guys you are really looking to add but can't get them in w/o a 3 week plan; (iii) you went all-in on Everton for the DGW; (iv) your present team is not diversified in terms of having access to points from most or all of the high scoring teams; (v) in terms of your squad players you don't have a good rotation mix, or; (vi) you are looking to change the structure of your team (heavy rotation system to stars/scrubs set-up).  But the most important point is, whether you want to go early in the January window or late - have a plan.     

GW20 (and FA Cup) Takeaway

Another red arrow ahead unless Friedel can keep a CS or Simpson and McAuley's 8 points off the bench pulls me out of a jam.  My gamble on Friedel as captain this DGW was premised on 2 low scoring games; two things I didn't think through clearly enough were (i) if Bale scored or grabbed an assist, BP were sure to follow and (ii) Friedel, despite his high saves total, was unlikely to face a lot of shots from offense-shy WBA and Everton, and therefore unlikely to get saves points in these 2 matches.  I'm not having regrets just yet, because I think Friedel's CS chances are as good as Bale's goal/assist chances but all my minileague rivals have Bale captained.  Oh well. 1.  I think Manchester City will walk it.  The win over Liverpool was superb and the fight back with 10 men against Man United demonstrated some character.  No other team has their talent.  And while pundits seem to think it's a 2 horse race, I don't think Jones/Ferdinand/Smalling/Evra/Evans/Rafael are good enough.  What's this mean for FF ?  Well, along with a good schedule in the near term (wig, TOT, eve, FUL, avl, BLA, BOL), it suggests to me 3 MNC guys are a good idea. Kompany's red card means he'll miss a couple of EPL games (unless the appeal is won) but Kompany, Richards and Lescott (with Kolo Toure at ACN) look good bets in back.  I like Clichy at 5.6 but Kolarov presents a rotation risk.  Silva is the obvious midfield guy, selected by 44% of managers, but Johnson and Milner play often enough to think about.  A guy I am going to look at on his return from ACN is Yaya Toure.  Significanly cheaper than Silva, he is the one everpresent for Mancini and has plenty of attacking upside.  At forward, it's all about Aguero. You'll have to make the judgment whether Adebayor or Sturridge represent better value or whether Rooney's return to FF relevance is upon us. but MUN's schedule is pretty tough short term.  Dzeko at 8.0 is still the 7th leading scoring FF forward.  He's bee a massive sell candidate since mid-November when starts (and goals) dried up, but if Aguero is a stretch for the budget . . . I don't think Edin Dzeko has forgotten how to score.   In addition to thinking Man City will walk to the title, I also think Man Utd's loss of Vidic and midfield woes suggest they may be in play in terms of the CL battle.  With their attacking strength, I think they'll score goals, but anyone looking at Man Utd's starting 11 in any given GWwill have a hard time suggesting to me it's a better 11 than Tottenham, Chelsea, Liverpool or Arsenal are fielding. In FF terms, I'm not going to drop Nani, nor would I drop Rooney if I had him, but it's wait and see for me with the MUN defensive assets, especially with ars, STK, che, LIV, nor, tot waiting after this week's game versus Bolton.   2.  Clint Dempsey time ?  I've bigged up Dempsey a couple times this year, and he is sitting there or thereabouts 10th in FF points among all players.  Fulham have a terrific schedule ahead, aside from a trip to MNC.  Bryan Ruiz has started every game since GW14 and has 2 goals and 2 assists and is priced at 6.0.  Obviously Yakubu or Fletcher have scored better at the same price range but with Fulham's schedule and an increasing comfort in the EPL may mean Ruiz, at 0.2% ownership could be a quality differential.  Another forward, at 5.2, who looks terrific when you watch Fulham, is Moussa Dembele.  Nailed on starter since GW9 for Martin Jol, Dembele  does a ton of work and has a ton of skill.  No FF product yet, but if 1 goes in will more follow ?   More Fulham . . . Senderos has started every games since GW12, including 3 CS. At 4.3.  A super steady point getter at near budget range is Danny Murphy at 6.1.  An awful lot of 2/3 point performances but he has 2G, 4A and at 6.1, you could do worse than that for a 4th midfielder.  Murphy's on pens too.  If Bobby Zamora is healthy and has sorted his pissing match with Jol, he may be worth a look at 6.6.  My trepidation about Zamora is he never seems to  play a full season; 1 season in the last 5 over 2200+ min.   3.  Everton.  DGW bust ?  Lots of managers looked for ways to get in Everton players after loading up on Tottenham.  Most of us grasped at straws (sheepishly raises hand, ahem, Drenthe) thinking Baines or Osman or Drenthe or Hibbert or Jagielka were worth a look.  Little did we know Tim Howard would have the best look all night at the Bolton goal.  Everton were and are a no-go area in FF and I am sorry I convinced myself otherwise.  This is what the January WC was designed for.   4.  QPR.  In a previous post I suggested Wigan and Bolton might escape and QPR and Norwich were my candidates to go down with Blackburn.  In FF terms, my thought was only Yakubu and Morison were ownable from those 3 teams.  If Mark Hughes is, indeed, named as QPR manager, I wonder if QPR won't become a much stronger side and maybe a Ferdinand or a Gabbidon might become worth owning. I'll be looking at the first few results to see if there is a 'Martin O'Neil' effect at QPR - just as Sunderland suddenly look like a top half team.

6:58

The Takeaway from GW19

This post is coming off late as I was up north this weekend enjoying the winter, which has really been very late in arriving  . . . GW19 saw me drop just out of the top 10,000, a worrying trend.  Luckily I captained (as my last post's convoluted logic suggested I might) RvP and he grabbed a goal and the BPs to save my GW.

This week I have gambled on Friedel for the armband.  Everyone chasing me in my minileague has Bale captained.  Cue Bale hat-trick over the DGW.  The logic in the Friedel selection was relatively straightforward; West Brom and Everton are in good form lately, in terms of their defensive organization and results.  West Brom kept a CS against Man City and, but for a ping-pong goal from Everton, would have kept a second CS in GW19.  They have conceded 4 in their last 3 road games, but Hodgson's stamp is starting to show on this team.  Everton have been very strong defensively recently (5 goals in the last 8 games, never more than 1 conceded, 3 CS), including a CS away @ West Brom and 1 conceded at Arsenal a few weeks back.  But neither West Brom nor Everton have shown much in attack.  So, 2-1 and 1-0 wins for Tottenham, probably mean 3+7 returns for Friedel.  So, in my mind, a quite conservative play. And with both Bale and Adebayor in my team, I won't be too chuffed if either has a big score.

A few takeaways from GW19 . . .

1.  FF has grown up.  Even as recently as last year, I would have expected some managers to have slept through the quick turnaround from GW19 to GW20 and missed the deadline, thereby leaving RvP or Nani captained, and failing to add the requisite 2/3 Tottenham players before the deadline. Wrong.  Even in my fairly mediocre minileague (8/49 players at +1000 points), all of the top 15 or so managers made their switches and captain's changes.  (Sigh) Ah, for the good old days when a GW like this was made to put massive distance between the observant manager and the also-rans . . .

2.  Rooney, WTF.  Completely perplexed by Rooney's absence for the Blackburn game, I saw something in The Guardian about a 'dinner' Rooney had, which somehow pissed off SAF, and therefore, the implication was clear, Rooney sat the Blackburn game.  What was interesting to me, and seems to have escaped any other mention is that Rooney's companions at this, um, 'dinner', were Darren Gibson and Jonny Evans - all of whom were reportedly hauled in for extra training before being left out of the Blackburn game.  I don't own Rooney but I do own Jonny Evans.  Does this mean Evans will be fit for the trip to Newcastle tomorrow ?  SAF was interviewed on 'The Football Show' with Charlie Stillitano and Giorgio Chinaglia on Sirius/XM and hemmed and hawed in response to a question about Rooney's absence, and ultimately said something about missing training and needing additional fitness.  Hmm. Some 'dinner' it must have been.

3.  I still like Gael Clichy, Mancini, not so much.  I bigged up Gael Clichy as a 'budget' alternative to Kompany/Richards/Lescott as a way in to the MNC defense.  Then Mancini throws a spanner in the works by bringing Kolarov in, apparently just back from injury.  I suspect Clichy was being preserved for the much more critical Liverpool game today, but Kolarov's return from injury does threaten occasional Clichy rotation. I also suspect Mancini outsmarted himself a bit by resting Silva and Aguero from the start.  Silva especially makes Man City go, and I wonder if Mancini will have taken something from the Sunderland game with respect to Silva's rotation future.

4.  Tottenham and Gareth Bale are not invincible.  1 point for Bale this week (and Nani and Silva) demonstrated that a good defensive effort can keep the Welsh wonderboy under wraps.  I've got the obligatory 3 Tottenham players for the DGW of course, but I am not sold that Tottenham will finish 3rd.  I think Chelsea and Arsenal and possibly Liverpool, will catch them.  I plan to keep either Bale or Adebayor or bring in VdV in the January WC, but I doubt I'll keep 2 of the 3.  In the 10GWs following this DGW, they go to MNC, LIV, CHE and have MUN at home.  A slip up in the game today or Jan 11 game in hand and the rubber will really meet the road through March.

5. Sunderland 1 Man City 0.  Another blank for Man City and, again, another mid-table team rode their luck (as WBA did last GW).  I didn't see the game but did see the highlights and just in follow up to my last post, I would start to really look hard at Sunderland's players.  I think Sessegnon looks a massive bargain.  And if Mignolet is truly back from injury represents a big, big bargain at 4.3.  Another guy I like on this team who seems to have come back under MON is David Vaughn.  Price has dropped to 5.1 this year because Bruce didn't play him, but he's been reinstated as a starter under MON.  He was huge for Blackpool last year (110 FF points in 3100+ min) as a sort of deep central mid who occasionally ventures forward.  Not the worst budget mid play in a team which looks like it is headed for the top half of the table.

6.  Stupid is as stupid does.  Here's the entry which may convince you to stop reading this blog but I write this as sort of a learning experience too, so here goes.  I was pretty well satisfied with my team coming into this DGW20 with Friedel, Bale and Adebayor in and, well, Royston Drenthe.  But Drenthe at least potentially  may play 2 games.  So, with 0.0 in the bank I was looking to beef up my bench with Evans, Sturridge and Garry Monk (SWN) all looking dodgy in terms of starts for GW20.  I could have gone for a simple Caulker (back from a 1 game ban) >> Monk swap, and kept my SWN 2x exposure (I also have Vorm).   And that would have been the simple, clean, not-too-clever-but-effective move.  Instead, I looked at the schedule and said 'wow, Blackburn get great results at Anfield and Old Trafford and surely will kick on with 2 home games against poor travelers Stoke and Fulham - I'll go for Grant Hanley who played a blinder v. Man Utd'.  So, of course, Swansea win their first away game with a CS at Villa, and Crouch destroys a vulnerable Blackburn back 4 with 2 goals.  And Hanley picks up a yellow.  So, instead of a "5" for Caulker in my back line I have a nice, smooth "0", thanks to Grant Hanley.  I guess the lesson here is, if one team has 7 clean sheets already, including 2 away, and another team has zero clean sheets out of 19 games, um, take the cheap defender from the, er, team which has actually kept some clean sheets.  Arrrgggghhh !!!!!!!!!!!!