Thursday, January 12, 2012

GW20 Takeaway Part 2; and a bit about the WC

A drop to 12,000+ in the world, but more importantly, my minileague lead has shrunk to 31 points.  And my chief rival, ForzaInter is within 47.  There were a few lessons in the final game of GW20 and we are into the January window Wild Card.

1.  I did not see the Assou-Ekottu freight train coming.  He has now matched his prior career total for goals scored and exceeded his career assist total.  With a 24 point GW he is now within 3 points of his highest previous season FF point total.  I think I spent some time in a previous post slagging off AE and Walker vis-a-vis Friedel.  I'll just throw some salt and pepper on that crow . . . but I want to point out a really interesting bit of minileague strategy exercised by my minileague rival ForzaInter.  We went into the GW with Friedel; I had Bale and Adebayor as well.  I had fairly advertized I was captaining Friedel.  Forza performed a neat bit of neutralizing any advantage I might gain if Tottenham kept 2 CS - which, of course, they did.  He selected Bale and AE for a 4 point hit and captained Bale.  Pure upside for him; if Tottenham kept 2 CS, he had doubled down on TOT defense, while also maximizing his chances to take advantage if TOT broke big.  And then it was pure gravy when AE broke big.  No doubt in my mind Forza planned that bit.  I guess the lesson here is to take a comparative look at your rival's team to see if you can find away to neutralize an advantage and maximize a differential.  Clever.

2.  Stay invested in Tottenham ?  Certainly for another week.  Tottenham won the reverse fixture 2-0 and Wolves have come in for a few tonkings away.  Wigan comes to town in GW23.  But, in general, the TOT near-term schedule looks reasonably difficult (WW, mci, WIG, liv, NWC, ars, MUN, eve, STK, che).  That said, it's not a bad bunch of home games (and attacking titans Everton).  I guess I might continue to run with Tottenham defenders if I have them in and you can rotate them, unless you are a true believer in Tottenham and then let them ride as you might with MNC, MUN, or LIV defenders.  A guy who might have passed under the radar this week in all the AE excitement is Michael Dawson.  A Redknapp favorite, a BP in his first game back and 5.2. If Tottenham add Samba . . .

3.  Everton demonstrate not all DGW teams are worth sweating over.  There is always a belief that somehow, someway, there is a good investment in any DGW team. I spent a lot of time turning over various options, and settled on Drenthe. Suffice to say, had Drenthe stayed on the bench I would have added 1 more point with McAuley as an autosub.  Think.

4.  A few WC thoughts.  I pulled the trigger this week on the January window WC, in part, because I couldn't look at Drenthe (and my doofus selection of Grant Hanley) in my line-up anymore.  And because, well, . . . I'm weak.  Had I stayed with my team, I had 9 of 11 players at home and a few really good captain options.  So, a bit of buyer's remorse.  At the same time, with a couple of players with orange "i"s and 2 players I definitely wanted out, and with 3 important (to me) targets, it felt like now was as good a time as any.  But I think a few of the things you should have in mind in making the "when" to WC decision - (i) injuries, obviously; (ii) targets - guys you are really looking to add but can't get them in w/o a 3 week plan; (iii) you went all-in on Everton for the DGW; (iv) your present team is not diversified in terms of having access to points from most or all of the high scoring teams; (v) in terms of your squad players you don't have a good rotation mix, or; (vi) you are looking to change the structure of your team (heavy rotation system to stars/scrubs set-up).  But the most important point is, whether you want to go early in the January window or late - have a plan.     

4 comments:

  1. Good point on the DGW; it's almost never a good idea to double up on defenders on poor teams. They often end up with 2 points or less.

    Baines is going in my WC, the only question being when.

    What's your thought on United and Tottenham attackers for their tough schedule and is there any justification for me not finally transferring RvP in during my WC (for Rooney, most likely)?

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  2. I've got Nani, Valencia and Bale. I brought Valencia in for Silva in my WC (v. Bolton). Probably a mistake to doubledown on MUN. I feel comfortable holding 1 MUN and 1 TOT through this stretch, so that means I'll be looking to switch out one of my MUN mids this week or next.

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  3. I'm probably going for Rooney and Bale, and seriously considering selling Nani. I have that horrible feeling that as soon as I sell him he'll start scoring again, but I guess that isn't a viable argument for not selling.

    I also really want to not buy RvP after failing to get him early, but it's probably just me being stubborn.

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  4. I guess my take would be Rooney is plenty of MUN cover. Rooney and Nani seems like overkill given (1) the near term MUN schedule and (2) other options in Nani's price range who afford some diversity on high scoring teams - Mata, Silva, Bale, VdV, or even dropping down in price - Dempsey. There are a lot of managers in my minileague w/o RvP (although my minileague is hardly an argument for that) but RvP and Aguero are sitting on roughly 34% ownership (Rooney's at 30%). Although I like RvP in my team, a number of forwards are scoring well, and so the argument is there that managers can live w/o him if they have another explosive forward like Rooney or Aguero. With the emergence of Ba and Adebayor this year, you could probably make an argument for saving money at forward and loading up in midfield or with MNC, MUN, LIV defenders.

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