Another red arrow and another discouraging performance sees my side drop outside the top 8000. Luckily, my minileague rivals have had up and down performances as well and I have maintained a 50+ point lead. My fiercest rival, ForzaInter has moved to 3rd and is within 60 points now, the headlights in the rearview mirror, ominously growing . . . a few notes on the GW.
1. Suarez. I'm not going to comment on the whole handshake controversy as this entire situation has been so badly handled all round - by the FA, by Suarez, by Liverpool, by Dalglish, and post-match celebrating, by Evra himself. From a FF perspective, Suarez reminded us that he can score goals and after the Carling Cup induced blank GW26, Liverpool have ARS, sun, qpr, WIG, nwc, AVL and perhaps a DGW squeezed in there somewhere. Those of us holding Aguero (11.2 for a guy who looks like a good home/away rotation candidate), after BLA, BOL, it may be time to look at a cheaper strike model and Suarez fits that bill.
2. Chelsea, wtf. I looked at this game and thought, 0-1, 0-2 to Chelsea. And so I moved for David Luiz in, Enrique out. Instead of looking to the more solid Tottenham back line and returning Dawson to my team or going for Assou-Ekotto. A bit of a lesson here, in that I think I tend to think in terms of a last year paradigm or let long-term reputation influence my player selection way too often. Chelsea have been such a solid defensive team for years, and so I expect a return to that this year, instead of believing what 24 GWs - not exactly a small sample - have shown; Chelsea are just not that good at the back this year. Move on.
3. I find Roberto Mancini very frustrating. I brought in Gael Clichy in my January window WC because he had started 16/21 games, including 1 self induced benching (red card), and had 7 CS. He has since started the Tottenham game (1 point) and sat the last 2 clean sheets. So, now I have 2 high risk rotation candidates in my back 5 (Clichy, Luiz). You get what you pay for and if you buy the 'budget' guy in an otherwise sturdy defense, you can't expect payoff week in and week out. Dzeko and Nasri owners, I feel your pain.
4. "Patience" as a FF watchword. I often think that if I looked at my team every 2 weeks or so, instead of obsessing every day, I would do a lot better. I'd see the forest, not the trees, and, after all, it's a 38 game schedule, and if I made only long term transfer selections, rather than schedule, form, this week's flavor - selections, I'd be a lot better off. Erm, Luiz this week. I was reminded of this with the performances of Rooney and Adebayor. These 2 have been massive FF performers in the past. Despite their barren spells this year, there was nothing to suggest that they wouldn't return to "form" (A note about "form" - a stupid word which signifies absolutely nothing other than, perhaps a slight uptick in self-confidence. I don't believe in "form" from a FF perspective. Torres isn't suffering from a loss of form, his self-confidence is shot). They sit 3rd and 7th respectively in FF points among all players over 25 GWs. The lesson: players like these will always, always return to "form" i.e., score again, at some point.
5. Blackburn 3 v. QPR 2. I knew there would be goals in this one and last Thursday and Friday, I sent the following emails to my rival ForzaInter about a possible swap I was looking at -
I have been running the numbers at the invaluable FFS/Members area. And I believe I've found an old favorite who is producing very good numbers since the New Year and who can provide me with some cash and yet kick in with goals/assists. He plays for a team who are having no trouble scoring goals this year, although it is a team which may well go down . . .
. . . here comes Friday and more nerves. My mystery midfielder from yesterday was none other than Morten Gamst Pedersen. But after further analysis overnight, I am probably going a different direction. MGP has surprisingly good attacking numbers over the last 6 GWs and with what I think will be a goal fest tomorrow and with a reasonably decent schedule ahead, he seemed a good shout as a rotation candidate . . .
I have a fond place in my heart for Gamst Pedersen because I rode him in the second half of the season a few years ago in his best FF season ever. Ultimately, MGP didn't get on the board, and I used my free for David Luiz (fail). But I think there are plenty of attacking players in these 2 teams worth looking at. Yakubu, obviously, but also David Hoilett who has quietly amassed 73 points, and sits behind, Graham, Holt, Morison, Yakubu, and Fletcher in the under 6.0 category. I wouldn't be surprised, when all is said and done, given that he starts whenever healthy, that he finishes 3rd or 4th in the budget forward category. I think MGP is worth looking at, too, at 6.2. For QPR, Zamora, obviously, but I also wonder about Buzsaky and now, again, after all the preseason hype, and first half of drawing blanks, if Adel Taarabt shouldn't be back in our thinking. Hughes seems to rate him; in the highlight show he looked terrific, and he did get an assist. QPR's schedule looks reasonably good over the near term, with their 2 hard games coming at Loftus Road. The other guy is left back Taye Taiwo - at 4.5, QPR aren't keeping clean sheets but he looks like getting forward every time QPR possess.
6. Everton 2 v. Chelsea 0. Should Everton come back into our thinking after the blank GW26 ? 4 goals conceded in their last 6 games (2 CS v. MNC and CHE at home), suggests a healthy Distin (5.1) or Heitinga (5.2) might be worth thinking about. Hibbert was dropped for Chelsea, but he is 4.6. In attack, while I've never rated him as a FF prospect, Steven Pienaar is 7.0, and Moyes is sure to start him. Perhaps when the DGW is scheduled, he should come into our thinking. Landon Donovan leaves shortly, and - dare I say it - Royston Drenthe might be given that midfield role.
7. Swansea 2 v. Norwich 3. Swansea looks safe from a relegation fight, but from a FF perspective, there has been a sharp drop in defensive returns. Swansea hasn't kept a home CS since GW15. Vorm gets enough 'saves' points - and most of us bought at ~4.0, so would lose substantial value - to justify giving him starts against mid-table/relegation candidate teams, but you wouldn't typically put a SWN defender in your lineup away, which means you haven't got SWN defender CS points since GW15, unless a SWN defender autosubbed in one of those away CS. There was a lot of love for Gylfi Sigurdsson this GW, but Danny Graham looks like the best buy here, at 5.0, he has 10 goals and sits in 7th place among forwards in FF points. Everyone above him is at least 2.8M more expensive. Edin Dzeko's 2 minute cameo kept my rival ForzaInter from getting Danny Graham's points haul auto-subbed. Thank god for small favors.
Norwich is a no go area defensively in terms of FF, although Ruddy as a cheap back up GK option works. Norwich continue to score goals and the likes of Pilkington, Surman, B. Johnson, and Holt look good value.
We've all got 2 weeks now, to assess our sides for the run-in. I may try to step away for a few days and try to see the forest for the trees . . .
Monday, February 13, 2012
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
GW24 Takeaway, pt. 2
1. Liverpool 0 v. Tottenham 0. Neither team covered themselves in glory in this one. Suarez should have won it for the Reds in his 20 minute cameo but - again - couldn't take his chance, consistent with his season so far. With a good goal scoring record at Ajax and with Uruguay at the international level (and not bad last year in the 2nd half of Liverpool's season), it seems crazy to believe he won't begin to bang them in at some point in the Prem. His attacking threat numbers are very good. Strange. At any rate, he remains on my Watchlist after Liverpool's blank GW26.
2. Liverpool record their 10th CS. I had 3 starting defenders who play for teams that kept CS this week and came away with zero points: Kompany, Clichy and . . . Enrique, who missed his first game since joining Liverpool. I've had him all season, fantastic FF value. I'll be keeping him but am starting to think about doubling down on this quality defensive unit (tied for 1st in CS, 2nd in 'goals allowed') - that is, after GW26. The near term schedule GW27-32 is a mixed bag but if you can hold Tottenham, you can hold anybody. And with Johnson/Skrtel/Agger/Enrique nailed on, you can go high end in G.Johnson(6.8) who offers plenty of attacking threat, or reasonably cheap for an elite team defender in Agger(5.9).
3. Tottenham record their 9th CS. I checked out of Dawson last week (for Kompany, ouch) thinking this tough stretch of games was not the time to be invested in a center back who may or may not be first choice. For reasons I cannot explain, I have a near visceral dislike of Assou-Ekotto, but it's probably time to start thinking about BAE or Walker the way we think about Richards or A.Cole. Dawson is 5.2 and is appealing at that price but sat out GW23, with Kaboul and King favored. He returned from injury in GW22 and since has started 2 of 3 games. The report Monday was Kaboul suffered a knock and so Dawson got the nod, but I wonder if Redknapp's preferred CB combo isn't Dawson/King. I've already got rotation risk Clichy, so I need to think hard about whether to dive for Dawson again.
4. Chelsea 3 v. Man Utd 3. The really important thing I take from this game from a FF perspective is the fragility of the Chelsea back line. They've kept only 6 CS this season (although 2 in the last 4 games) and sit about midtable in 'goals allowed' totals. This week's rotation of Clichy has me eyeing up a replacement and I thought about Chelsea's defense but this is a risky proposition unless you want to spend the 7.1 to get in A.Cole (6 assists to go with the 6 CS). I think Cole, Terry and Ivanovic are nailed on if fit (if you look at the season GW history, Ivanovic has only missed games he was injured). The recent red card to Cole and Terry's injury, meant Boswinga and Ivanovic both played the last 2 GWs but absent injury, I expect the Chelsea normal back 4 to be -
Ivanovic/Luiz/Terry/Cole (I think Che bought Cahill not to start - but for cover for injuries and for Prem/FACup/CL fixture congestion, see e.g., Feb 18-25, when they play 3 games in 7 days). Luiz at 6.3 is every bit a gamble, as my conjecture on Cahill was not in conjunction with the Blues' coaching staff (haha), but Chelsea's near-term schedule suggests a CS or 2 - eve/BOL/wba/STK - then mci/TOT - then avl/WIG. Luiz offers plenty of attacking threat to go with potential CS, but at 6.3, I have to be right about Cahill . . .
2. Liverpool record their 10th CS. I had 3 starting defenders who play for teams that kept CS this week and came away with zero points: Kompany, Clichy and . . . Enrique, who missed his first game since joining Liverpool. I've had him all season, fantastic FF value. I'll be keeping him but am starting to think about doubling down on this quality defensive unit (tied for 1st in CS, 2nd in 'goals allowed') - that is, after GW26. The near term schedule GW27-32 is a mixed bag but if you can hold Tottenham, you can hold anybody. And with Johnson/Skrtel/Agger/Enrique nailed on, you can go high end in G.Johnson(6.8) who offers plenty of attacking threat, or reasonably cheap for an elite team defender in Agger(5.9).
3. Tottenham record their 9th CS. I checked out of Dawson last week (for Kompany, ouch) thinking this tough stretch of games was not the time to be invested in a center back who may or may not be first choice. For reasons I cannot explain, I have a near visceral dislike of Assou-Ekotto, but it's probably time to start thinking about BAE or Walker the way we think about Richards or A.Cole. Dawson is 5.2 and is appealing at that price but sat out GW23, with Kaboul and King favored. He returned from injury in GW22 and since has started 2 of 3 games. The report Monday was Kaboul suffered a knock and so Dawson got the nod, but I wonder if Redknapp's preferred CB combo isn't Dawson/King. I've already got rotation risk Clichy, so I need to think hard about whether to dive for Dawson again.
4. Chelsea 3 v. Man Utd 3. The really important thing I take from this game from a FF perspective is the fragility of the Chelsea back line. They've kept only 6 CS this season (although 2 in the last 4 games) and sit about midtable in 'goals allowed' totals. This week's rotation of Clichy has me eyeing up a replacement and I thought about Chelsea's defense but this is a risky proposition unless you want to spend the 7.1 to get in A.Cole (6 assists to go with the 6 CS). I think Cole, Terry and Ivanovic are nailed on if fit (if you look at the season GW history, Ivanovic has only missed games he was injured). The recent red card to Cole and Terry's injury, meant Boswinga and Ivanovic both played the last 2 GWs but absent injury, I expect the Chelsea normal back 4 to be -
Ivanovic/Luiz/Terry/Cole (I think Che bought Cahill not to start - but for cover for injuries and for Prem/FACup/CL fixture congestion, see e.g., Feb 18-25, when they play 3 games in 7 days). Luiz at 6.3 is every bit a gamble, as my conjecture on Cahill was not in conjunction with the Blues' coaching staff (haha), but Chelsea's near-term schedule suggests a CS or 2 - eve/BOL/wba/STK - then mci/TOT - then avl/WIG. Luiz offers plenty of attacking threat to go with potential CS, but at 6.3, I have to be right about Cahill . . .
Monday, February 6, 2012
Takeaway from GW24 wherein we learn decisions taken after midnight are usually bad ones
As I will explore, I was one of those nervous Nellies that checked out of RvP(c). Late. Friday. Night. That decision has me back outside the top 5000, which, really, I fully deserve. Luckily, RvP is still a bit of a differential among some of the challengers in my minileague, so the news was not all bad.
1. Decisions made after midnight Friday, while drinking, usually turn out bad. I took a trip Friday night to my cottage in Michigan's Upper Pennisula. Arrived late and had a few beers. Unfortunately, I then decided to take a last look at FF (worried principally about the weather) and saw the Wenger comments about 'considering' an RvP rest. I immediately logged into my team and switched RvP(c) to Aguero(c). I'd like to say I was fooled and scream outrage at those carrying the info but . . . I was only 60/40 for RvP over Aguero in the first place. I just needed a push or, more accurately, a rationale.
The bigger point to take from this, at least from my perspective is, viewing the league from 'the other side of the pond' has its advantages and its disadvantages. The big disadvantage is that, unlike European managers, I don't have the gameday morning to have a coffee, measure up the latest news, and make a studied opinion on late developments (I could, I guess, if I was willing to get up at 4:30 am on Saturdays . . . ). My team decisions are typically made by 7 pm, EST, Friday night. I might very well have laughed off the Wenger comments had I read them in a Paris cafe Saturday morning. Probably not though.
You can have too much information in this game some times.
2. Luckily, the swap out was not the end of the world. Aguero(c) meant 22+23=45 v. 11+46=57, a 12 point loss. Had I picked, say, Valencia . . . The St. Ignace News would have had a headline such as -
Man leaps from Mackinaw Bridge, Body Not Yet Found in Icy Waters
Cautionary tale: leaves note warning of fantasy football addiction
3. Man City keep another clean sheet, I am soooo glad I doubled down on Man City defenders and left Dempsey on my bench ! Oh, wait. My 2 MNC defenders were Kompany and Clichy. I'm okay with the occasional Clichy rotation at his price (well, maybe not) but Kompany came out of the blue (pun not intended). I picked up Kompany to cover for those CS Clichy missed out on and to double down on the defense I expect to keep the most CS in the run-in. I am going to be rethinking Clichy. My theory was that Mancini would use Kolarov in Europa league and Clichy in the Prem. Perhaps this was a 1-off with Mancini realizing Fulham were coming in to the match with 0.67 gpg away, and no established forward starting, and decided he could risk Kolarov. Anyway, I hope.
Anyway, with Kompany/Clichy on the bench, I get J.Evans(-1) and, of course, Dempsey(2), subbing in. Ouch.
4. Moses makes lineup, scores 2 FF points ! Just as he has on 16 other occasions this year. Sixteen 2-pointers seems almost impossible ! With players like McLean, Surman, Pilkington, Dyer, Sigurdsson (the favorite right now), Dyer, Buzsaky available, my desperate hope that Moses would somehow translate his good attacking numbers into FF points is near an end. Wigan have a decent near-term schedule, so I might, just out of perversity stay with him. But Oxlade-Chamberlain is only 1.0 more . . .
5. Swansea and Norwich keep rolling. I expected these 2 teams to fall off considerably in the second half but that doesn't look like happening. Both have decent near term schedules. Anyone from Vorm, Rangel, Caulker, A.Williams, C.Taylor, Allen, Dyer, Sinclair, Sigurdsson, and Graham (4.8 - 8G/2A/12BP), are worth owning, depending on your needs. Norwich is a slightly more mixed bag but Ruddy (as your budget back up GK), Pilkington, Surman, B.Johnson - all good value as a 5th midfielder, and Holt or Morison as a 3rd forward, all look like they should be in the conversation in their price range.
6. Man Utd keep the goals coming. Reports of Rooney's FF demise were greatly exagerrated. I think Man Utd attacking exposure is de riguer (I have Valencia who had a rare off-day). Man Utd have 59 goals so far, 4 behind leader Man City and 13 more goals than the 3rd highest scoring team, Arsenal. Valencia's nailed-on position in right midfield may bear some risk with Ashley Young back but I am going to live with that for now. Wayne Rooney (from the spot 2x) reminds us that he is still a FF monster. Welbeck/Hernandez are both worth monitoring and if one should emerge, Man Utd have a good run of games beginning in GW28. In defense, despite his nightmare GW, J.Evans price means he's worth owning, in my opinion.
7. Liverpool v Tottenham still to come today. Tottenham are nearly home and dry for CL football next year, and a point this afternoon takes them 7 points clear of Chelsea in 4th. Liverpool can get within 2 points of Chelsea with a win. This is a massive game for Liverpool. For FF purposes, I'm at cross purposes with Bale and Enrique starting for me. As a Liverpool fan, I am hoping for a win; as a FF manager I am hoping further for a CS . . .
1. Decisions made after midnight Friday, while drinking, usually turn out bad. I took a trip Friday night to my cottage in Michigan's Upper Pennisula. Arrived late and had a few beers. Unfortunately, I then decided to take a last look at FF (worried principally about the weather) and saw the Wenger comments about 'considering' an RvP rest. I immediately logged into my team and switched RvP(c) to Aguero(c). I'd like to say I was fooled and scream outrage at those carrying the info but . . . I was only 60/40 for RvP over Aguero in the first place. I just needed a push or, more accurately, a rationale.
The bigger point to take from this, at least from my perspective is, viewing the league from 'the other side of the pond' has its advantages and its disadvantages. The big disadvantage is that, unlike European managers, I don't have the gameday morning to have a coffee, measure up the latest news, and make a studied opinion on late developments (I could, I guess, if I was willing to get up at 4:30 am on Saturdays . . . ). My team decisions are typically made by 7 pm, EST, Friday night. I might very well have laughed off the Wenger comments had I read them in a Paris cafe Saturday morning. Probably not though.
You can have too much information in this game some times.
2. Luckily, the swap out was not the end of the world. Aguero(c) meant 22+23=45 v. 11+46=57, a 12 point loss. Had I picked, say, Valencia . . . The St. Ignace News would have had a headline such as -
Man leaps from Mackinaw Bridge, Body Not Yet Found in Icy Waters
Cautionary tale: leaves note warning of fantasy football addiction
3. Man City keep another clean sheet, I am soooo glad I doubled down on Man City defenders and left Dempsey on my bench ! Oh, wait. My 2 MNC defenders were Kompany and Clichy. I'm okay with the occasional Clichy rotation at his price (well, maybe not) but Kompany came out of the blue (pun not intended). I picked up Kompany to cover for those CS Clichy missed out on and to double down on the defense I expect to keep the most CS in the run-in. I am going to be rethinking Clichy. My theory was that Mancini would use Kolarov in Europa league and Clichy in the Prem. Perhaps this was a 1-off with Mancini realizing Fulham were coming in to the match with 0.67 gpg away, and no established forward starting, and decided he could risk Kolarov. Anyway, I hope.
Anyway, with Kompany/Clichy on the bench, I get J.Evans(-1) and, of course, Dempsey(2), subbing in. Ouch.
4. Moses makes lineup, scores 2 FF points ! Just as he has on 16 other occasions this year. Sixteen 2-pointers seems almost impossible ! With players like McLean, Surman, Pilkington, Dyer, Sigurdsson (the favorite right now), Dyer, Buzsaky available, my desperate hope that Moses would somehow translate his good attacking numbers into FF points is near an end. Wigan have a decent near-term schedule, so I might, just out of perversity stay with him. But Oxlade-Chamberlain is only 1.0 more . . .
5. Swansea and Norwich keep rolling. I expected these 2 teams to fall off considerably in the second half but that doesn't look like happening. Both have decent near term schedules. Anyone from Vorm, Rangel, Caulker, A.Williams, C.Taylor, Allen, Dyer, Sinclair, Sigurdsson, and Graham (4.8 - 8G/2A/12BP), are worth owning, depending on your needs. Norwich is a slightly more mixed bag but Ruddy (as your budget back up GK), Pilkington, Surman, B.Johnson - all good value as a 5th midfielder, and Holt or Morison as a 3rd forward, all look like they should be in the conversation in their price range.
6. Man Utd keep the goals coming. Reports of Rooney's FF demise were greatly exagerrated. I think Man Utd attacking exposure is de riguer (I have Valencia who had a rare off-day). Man Utd have 59 goals so far, 4 behind leader Man City and 13 more goals than the 3rd highest scoring team, Arsenal. Valencia's nailed-on position in right midfield may bear some risk with Ashley Young back but I am going to live with that for now. Wayne Rooney (from the spot 2x) reminds us that he is still a FF monster. Welbeck/Hernandez are both worth monitoring and if one should emerge, Man Utd have a good run of games beginning in GW28. In defense, despite his nightmare GW, J.Evans price means he's worth owning, in my opinion.
7. Liverpool v Tottenham still to come today. Tottenham are nearly home and dry for CL football next year, and a point this afternoon takes them 7 points clear of Chelsea in 4th. Liverpool can get within 2 points of Chelsea with a win. This is a massive game for Liverpool. For FF purposes, I'm at cross purposes with Bale and Enrique starting for me. As a Liverpool fan, I am hoping for a win; as a FF manager I am hoping further for a CS . . .
Thursday, February 2, 2012
The Takeaway from GW23, the transfer window and the short week ahead
A strange GW, the difference between a great week and good week was simply whether you had Bale(c) or RvP(c). Sigh. Unfortunately, I also had 13 points on my bench (Enrique and Williamson) to further frustrate (well, 18 points if I add Moses). Nonetheless, 67 points resulted in a slight world ranking bump inside the 3300 mark and did me no damage in my minileague where a few managers put in 80+ point weeks to charge up the table. A few notes . . .
1. The very tight circle of trust. Almost all active teams now have a midfield which includes at least 4 of: Silva, Bale, Dempsey, Valencia, Sessegnon; includes some variation on RvP/Aguero/budget at forward; includes Vorm or Krul in goal or both; and includes defenders from MNC, NWC, Enrique and/or Assou-Ekotto plus budget guy. Which means this was a good week for most active teams, the only significant differentials being Krul over Vorm (I lucked into a middle position with Mignolet) and captaining Bale. If you are at or near the top of your minileague and your team looks like this, you aren't too worried; if you are trying to make up ground on your minileague leader you are scratching your head trying to figure out under what rocks those differential guys might be hiding.
2. Everton 1 v. Manchester City 0. I watched the replay of this game on FSC and was stunned by the quality of Everton's defending (w/o Jagielka or Distin) and overall play. Fellaini bossed Silva, the back 4 were tight and tidy, and Drenthe and Donovan looked terrific on the counter. The unpronounceably named Argentine guy on top put himself about and looked dangerous throughout. The entire team looked composed in defense and on the ball. Is this the same team we were all running from after their DGW fail ? Drenthe made the goal and looked dangerous every time he touched the ball. Unfortunately, with Pienaar back (who I don't rate at 7.0 as a FF prospect), you wonder if he'll continue in the starting 11. Man City seemed to have one of those days, perhaps less than inspired by Mancini who said after the game he had not prepared the team properly, thinking the game would be 'easy'. Moyes may not have a full cast of international superstars at his disposal, but no game against a Moyes team is ever easy. Still, Aguero and Dzeko had a few chances and Man City dominated possession. As a holder of Aguero, I'm a little worried at three straight 2-pointers. But with FUL, BLA, and BOL visiting in the next 4 GW, it seems prudent to hold.
3. Swansea 1 v. Chelsea 1. This is the game that has convinced me it's time to drop Sturridge. Swansea bossed large portions of this game and Chelsea just look so deliberate and slow in the build up. I remember I had Torres in my team for a couple of weeks early on in the season and as I watched this one I thought 'what was I thinking ?' Chelsea still sit in the 4th CL spot (and 4th in goals scored) but it's hard to see any value in this team right now except perhaps Terry, A.Cole (after his red card suspension) or Ivanovic if their recent defensive solidity holds. You might put Cahill in here too, if he ever gets a start. Despite Boswinga's goal, I think AVB will move Ivanovic to RB; Ivanovic has started virtually every game this season in which he's been fit.
4. The RvP(c) fail. I followed this game on the BBC text and the Dutchman apparently hit the woodwork twice, was thwarted by a Bogdan wonder save on another occasion and laid on 2 balls OC and Ramsey should have finished. The Ramsey miss is nothing new; I had him for a few weeks and saw him play a number of games on TV and he may be the least composed midfielder in front of goal in the EPL.
But the (c) fail (and I have a strong tradition of (c) fails) has got me thinking about a rule I used to follow very consistently until last year - call it the Stoosher Captain Selection Rule (the "SCSR").
And it was this: select (1) your best midfielder who is (2) at home (3) and playing against the weakest opponent.
I got away from it last year with so many forwards hitting on all cylinders (I rode RvP like a rented mule in the second half of the season last year). But the rule has several virtues. First, midfielders always have the potential to get a CS 1 point added on; midfielders typically get more assists than forwards, thus the potential for steady points hauls (think Daivd Silva v. Kun Aguero) and not so much boom and bust potential. Home teams score more - a lot more - than away teams over a season. The other virtue is it takes a lot of guesswork out of the picture, since you normally have only 1 or 2 real options in any given week. Until last year, I actively focused on setting up 2-3 midfielder captain options with a home/away balance so I would always have a good home option. Of course, this was much easier back in the day when Lampard/Gerrard/Ronaldo/Fabregas ruled the earth.
But the frequency with which my captain selections have failed this year (despite having RvP since GW12), has me reconsidering a return to the rule. Under the SCSR, Bale(c) would have been a no-brainer this week. And I could have done a lot worse than a Valencia/Silva, home/away armband rotation over the last 10 GWs. Well, actually, I have done a lot worse.
RvP at home v. Blackburn means and with only Moses at home in my midfield, I'll probably postpone the rule's application this week. But I may make some adjustment to my midfield to ensure a good home option every week.
5. The transfer window. I think QPR's transfer business has been brilliant. I posted in December I thought QPR were going down because I thought Warnock was in over his head in the Prem, but with Hughes in charge and these transfers, I think QPR will rise back to midtable mediocrity. Hughes has revamped QPR's attack and fortified the back line. If you have Helguson, time to sell because unless Cisse (6.5) or Zamora (6.7) get injured, he's only going to get time-wasting cameos, in my opinion. With QPR's near term schedule (WOL, bla, FUL, EVE, bol, LIV), I like either of Cisse or Zamora. I liked Cisse from his time at Liverpool and it's hard to think of a better target guy than Zamora who, in FF terms, provides assists and BPs to make up for his lack of a great goal scoring record. And if Hughes is okay with Taye Taiwo's over-the-top attacking play, he looks a good value at 4.5.
After Everton's play against MNC, I'm intrigued by Nikica Jelavic (6.5), transferred in from Rangers. Historically, he has a good goal scoring record at Rangers, and I doubt Moyes invested heavily (for Everton) to provide him with a seat at Goodison. With Louis Saha gone to Tottenham, and Moyes apparently not convinced by unpronounceably named Argentine guy, Jelavic should go straight in to the starting lineup. Reports are he is 6'2" - and I would guess a few Baines crosses will be aimed at his big ol' Croat head. Everton have a tough near term schedule but they get CHE, TOT, and ARS at home. Man City can attest Moyes's boys are not a pushover at Goodison.
6. As the worm turns. With Sessegnon, Dempsey, Valencia, and Bale all away, and all with very tough away fixtures against teams perfectly capable of keeping clean sheets, I am guessing we won't see a 45 point average (which was probably closer to a 65 point average if you throw out all the ghost ships; of the top 20 teams in my minileague, only 3 had 50 points or less, 12 had 65 points or more and 2 were 80+) this week. Unless RvP gets back on track.
1. The very tight circle of trust. Almost all active teams now have a midfield which includes at least 4 of: Silva, Bale, Dempsey, Valencia, Sessegnon; includes some variation on RvP/Aguero/budget at forward; includes Vorm or Krul in goal or both; and includes defenders from MNC, NWC, Enrique and/or Assou-Ekotto plus budget guy. Which means this was a good week for most active teams, the only significant differentials being Krul over Vorm (I lucked into a middle position with Mignolet) and captaining Bale. If you are at or near the top of your minileague and your team looks like this, you aren't too worried; if you are trying to make up ground on your minileague leader you are scratching your head trying to figure out under what rocks those differential guys might be hiding.
2. Everton 1 v. Manchester City 0. I watched the replay of this game on FSC and was stunned by the quality of Everton's defending (w/o Jagielka or Distin) and overall play. Fellaini bossed Silva, the back 4 were tight and tidy, and Drenthe and Donovan looked terrific on the counter. The unpronounceably named Argentine guy on top put himself about and looked dangerous throughout. The entire team looked composed in defense and on the ball. Is this the same team we were all running from after their DGW fail ? Drenthe made the goal and looked dangerous every time he touched the ball. Unfortunately, with Pienaar back (who I don't rate at 7.0 as a FF prospect), you wonder if he'll continue in the starting 11. Man City seemed to have one of those days, perhaps less than inspired by Mancini who said after the game he had not prepared the team properly, thinking the game would be 'easy'. Moyes may not have a full cast of international superstars at his disposal, but no game against a Moyes team is ever easy. Still, Aguero and Dzeko had a few chances and Man City dominated possession. As a holder of Aguero, I'm a little worried at three straight 2-pointers. But with FUL, BLA, and BOL visiting in the next 4 GW, it seems prudent to hold.
3. Swansea 1 v. Chelsea 1. This is the game that has convinced me it's time to drop Sturridge. Swansea bossed large portions of this game and Chelsea just look so deliberate and slow in the build up. I remember I had Torres in my team for a couple of weeks early on in the season and as I watched this one I thought 'what was I thinking ?' Chelsea still sit in the 4th CL spot (and 4th in goals scored) but it's hard to see any value in this team right now except perhaps Terry, A.Cole (after his red card suspension) or Ivanovic if their recent defensive solidity holds. You might put Cahill in here too, if he ever gets a start. Despite Boswinga's goal, I think AVB will move Ivanovic to RB; Ivanovic has started virtually every game this season in which he's been fit.
4. The RvP(c) fail. I followed this game on the BBC text and the Dutchman apparently hit the woodwork twice, was thwarted by a Bogdan wonder save on another occasion and laid on 2 balls OC and Ramsey should have finished. The Ramsey miss is nothing new; I had him for a few weeks and saw him play a number of games on TV and he may be the least composed midfielder in front of goal in the EPL.
But the (c) fail (and I have a strong tradition of (c) fails) has got me thinking about a rule I used to follow very consistently until last year - call it the Stoosher Captain Selection Rule (the "SCSR").
And it was this: select (1) your best midfielder who is (2) at home (3) and playing against the weakest opponent.
I got away from it last year with so many forwards hitting on all cylinders (I rode RvP like a rented mule in the second half of the season last year). But the rule has several virtues. First, midfielders always have the potential to get a CS 1 point added on; midfielders typically get more assists than forwards, thus the potential for steady points hauls (think Daivd Silva v. Kun Aguero) and not so much boom and bust potential. Home teams score more - a lot more - than away teams over a season. The other virtue is it takes a lot of guesswork out of the picture, since you normally have only 1 or 2 real options in any given week. Until last year, I actively focused on setting up 2-3 midfielder captain options with a home/away balance so I would always have a good home option. Of course, this was much easier back in the day when Lampard/Gerrard/Ronaldo/Fabregas ruled the earth.
But the frequency with which my captain selections have failed this year (despite having RvP since GW12), has me reconsidering a return to the rule. Under the SCSR, Bale(c) would have been a no-brainer this week. And I could have done a lot worse than a Valencia/Silva, home/away armband rotation over the last 10 GWs. Well, actually, I have done a lot worse.
RvP at home v. Blackburn means and with only Moses at home in my midfield, I'll probably postpone the rule's application this week. But I may make some adjustment to my midfield to ensure a good home option every week.
5. The transfer window. I think QPR's transfer business has been brilliant. I posted in December I thought QPR were going down because I thought Warnock was in over his head in the Prem, but with Hughes in charge and these transfers, I think QPR will rise back to midtable mediocrity. Hughes has revamped QPR's attack and fortified the back line. If you have Helguson, time to sell because unless Cisse (6.5) or Zamora (6.7) get injured, he's only going to get time-wasting cameos, in my opinion. With QPR's near term schedule (WOL, bla, FUL, EVE, bol, LIV), I like either of Cisse or Zamora. I liked Cisse from his time at Liverpool and it's hard to think of a better target guy than Zamora who, in FF terms, provides assists and BPs to make up for his lack of a great goal scoring record. And if Hughes is okay with Taye Taiwo's over-the-top attacking play, he looks a good value at 4.5.
After Everton's play against MNC, I'm intrigued by Nikica Jelavic (6.5), transferred in from Rangers. Historically, he has a good goal scoring record at Rangers, and I doubt Moyes invested heavily (for Everton) to provide him with a seat at Goodison. With Louis Saha gone to Tottenham, and Moyes apparently not convinced by unpronounceably named Argentine guy, Jelavic should go straight in to the starting lineup. Reports are he is 6'2" - and I would guess a few Baines crosses will be aimed at his big ol' Croat head. Everton have a tough near term schedule but they get CHE, TOT, and ARS at home. Man City can attest Moyes's boys are not a pushover at Goodison.
6. As the worm turns. With Sessegnon, Dempsey, Valencia, and Bale all away, and all with very tough away fixtures against teams perfectly capable of keeping clean sheets, I am guessing we won't see a 45 point average (which was probably closer to a 65 point average if you throw out all the ghost ships; of the top 20 teams in my minileague, only 3 had 50 points or less, 12 had 65 points or more and 2 were 80+) this week. Unless RvP gets back on track.
Friday, January 27, 2012
Differentials are getting hard to come by
With Ba and Cisse returning early, and with Balotelli's suspension pushing Dzeko into some manager's thoughts (only me and a few others apparently, there appears to be a Ba feeding frenzy), I've been thinking about team make-up and the differentials that will (i) help me grow my minileague lead (rust never sleeps) or (ii) might help others improve their minileague position.
I guess the key point is the lack of differentials we're seeing in most teams (I am excluding the 'ghost ship' teams here). I am seeing a lot of RMT teams with, essentially, 5 mids and 3 forwards a manager will want in his team most weeks.
So you'll see something like -
Silva/Bale/Dempsey/Valencia/Sessegnon - RvP/Aguero/Sturridge with a plan to bring in Ba for Sturridge)
Of course, you can only start 7. And this issue is typically dismissed with the rationale 'it's a good problem to have'. This may be contrarian but, well, no, it's not. It's a waste of assets. If we assume you've paid at least 6.5 for the least of your front 8 (as in the example here), you are wasting at least 1.0/1.5 every week - and more if you sit anyone costing more that, if we presume one's bench should be filled with 4.0-5.5(at most) guys.
I currently have Moses (Bale/Valencia/Sessegnon/Dempsey) in my midfield but have been thinking about bringing Silva or another elite or tier 2 midfielder in. But that sets up a 5-man midfield with players I don't want to sub out and a front 3 I won't be inclined to sit either (RvP/Aguero/Sturridge(or Ba, if I jump on that bandwagon)). Now Sessegnon/Ba set up a perfect NWC/SUN rotation pairing. But. Of Sessegnon's 5G/8A, 3G/3A have come away; Ba has actually scored more goals away from St. James Park than in its friendly confines. And you are wasting significant funds having these 6.5+ or the 7.3+ assets on your bench. In my case, I can put a number on it, since I have the 4.8 Moses in my team as perfect bench fodder (90 min every week, occasional 3+ games) - I waste 1.7+ sitting Sessegnon or would waste 2.4+ if I acquired and sat Ba. That's the difference between sitting bench fodder and having the supposed 'good' problem. So.
This leads me to a couple of conclusions. You either need a bench fodder player in your front 8; someone whose role is to serve as an able replacement in the event one of your front 7 sits; or you need 2 high end budget guys to rotate in your front 8. A second conclusion about differentials follows from a rough eyeballing of most RMTs - most teams (active, as opposed to the 'ghost ship' teams still floating around out there - about half of my minileague, for instance) are settling on a selection of 7/8 from among about 14 front players-
Silva/Bale/Valencia/Dempsey/Sessegnon/Walters/Dyer/Nani(inj?)
RvP/Rooney/Aguero/Adebayor/Sturridge/Ba/Dzeko
Only Dyer looks like he is still subject to selection as a budget alternative, otherwise teams are loading up on this group of elite guys or mid-price guys who have so far proved to have significant value. The good news is selecting 7 from this group does afford many managers excess funds. What to do then ?
My conclusion here is perhaps controversial but it is this - with the 'staleness' (or lack of differentials) of attacking selection options, differentials will come from (1) the steady accretion of points in defense or (2) opting for a sound rotation strategy with 2 or even 4 'under-the-radar' types in your attacking positions. With respect to (2) here, there aren't a ton of options that I see at the right price (Ramires/Zamora is one at the high-end of what you might want to pay for rotation guys) or who are guaranteed starts (Sessegnon/Ben Arfa in this category, in that Ben Arfa's place is not nailed down). But if you examine the schedule and the 'value' filter in FPL or review the numbers in the FFS Members section, you may be able to find a really solid pairing or 2.
So the first option seems perhaps the best path forward - spend the extra cash afforded by some of the mid-priced options among the 14 or so 'standard' attacking picks and add an extra elite team* defender even 2; and gamble on one of these selections being a defender with some offensive upside (Vermaelen, G.Johnson, A.Cole, Richards, Ivanovic). I might also even recommend thinking about a Hart or Reina or a Lindegaard/deGea combo in goal and doubling down as your pick's schedule presents CS opportunities. This is contrary to most standard FF manager advice and certainly won't see your team rocket up the table. But a steady accumulation of CS for 2-3 defenders can turn a lot of 30-40 point weeks into 50+. Simply put, if you are paying attention, your attacking differentials are limited to timely hitting the armband selection a few weeks in a row, since most teams have the same attacking players. Are 4 elite team defenders too many ? I think it might be a big differential.
*For argument sake, I am going to put MNC, MUN, CHE, ARS and LIV in this 'elite' defense category, although an argument can be made that TOT have kept more CS and deserve the designation more than CHE. And the argument can be made against ARS inclusion, although my view is they are a different team w/Vermaelen at center back. I guess I would make the further qualification that you should always look at the near-term (6 games out or so) schedule too, because aside from the 2 Manchesters, all of the teams in this group have had ups and downs.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Wildcarding
On the back of 3 straight red arrows, I used my January WC at the earliest possible opportunity. Besides the fact that I'm simply weak-willed when it comes to WC (I revamped my team in GW2 after FPL screwed the pooch in GW1, then used my normal WC in GW7), I also felt the team needed some shake-up after I had dropped out of the top 10,000. Not that I am used to those giddy heights but to paraphrase a great Woody Allen line, a FF team is like a shark; when it's not moving forward, you've got a dead shark. Or something. Anyway, my GW20 team will be on the left, and I'll bold the guys I brought in on the right, then offer some commentary.
GK
Vorm
Friedel >>Mignolet
I seriously thought about riding the American for the rest of the season and dropping Vorm for, say Ruddy, as a pure backup, but I wouldn't have made enough money on Vorm to justify it. I also think 2 relatively inexpensive GK who rotate well is the way to go. Vorm is the only guy I've had in my team since GW1 and I can see SWN keeping a few more CS. I went for Mignolet at 1.3 in savings on Friedel and I think MON has reinstilled belief in SUN, so I like Mignolet in tandem with Vorm. There are better rotation candidates (Al-Haibsi, Hennessey, Foster) with Vorm, but I think MON has the ship pointed in the right direction and I think Mignolet looks a top keeper.
Defenders
Enrique
J.Evans
Simpson>>Williamson
McAuley>>Clichy
Hanley>>Dawson
A quick look at the left hand column and you can see why I wanted to WC. I bought Enrique early on and LIV continue to offer good value in defense. J.Evans is virtually nailed on at MUN on his return from injury and especially so now that P.Jones is out. On 3.7% ownership, Evans has seven clean sheets in a part-time season. I like NWC's defense but I think Williamson has a slightly better chance of getting a goal from a set piece than the defensive minded Simpson; this was a sideways move pricewise for me, so an easy one to make. I'm not going to recap my stupidity in bringing in Hanley but it's quite clear that he had to go; McAuley is cheap but WBA are just too inconsistent to justify anyone in that defense except maybe Foster in goal. I feel a MNC defender is essential and Clichy is the cheapest guy in the bunch, although I'll acknowledge he is under some threat from Kolarov. I almost went for Lescott but I think he's under threat from Toure when he returns from ACN and I didn't want to burn a transfer later. I went for Michael Dawson here, although I'm going to acknowledge this was a mistake; I was overly concerned that TOT were playing WW in GW21, and I was afraid all those in my league with BAE would steal 6 points from me. Of course, Wolves scored and it was a pointless exercise. I will probably keep Dawson v. Wigan in GW23 (although he too, is under threat from Ledley King as we saw in the MNC game) and then swap him out for a budget guy that rotates well with Williamson or 'big up' to a MNC guy, like Kompany.
A bigger point here about the defense; and that point is the so-called 'Merritt Rule', named after my good friend and manager of ForzaInter, often referred to here (he's 3rd in our minileague and in 5 years of playing this game I've beaten him only once). The Merritt Rule is simple: a FF team must carry 3 'elite' team defenders, preferably the cheapest ones that start, but 3 even if you have to pay a premium for one. This was an iron clad rule for me until last year when it seemed like CS became less predictable. But as you can see above, I'm back as a believer in the rule (Enrique, Clichy, Evans). I am also thinking about the Merritt Rule + 1; I am toying with the idea of replacing Dawson with another MNC defender.
Midfield
Bale
Valencia
*Nani>>(GW22)Dempsey
Silva>>Sessegnon
Drenthe>>Moses
Bale is cheaper than VdV, so he stays although I think both will score big this year. Valencia killed last season when he came back into the lineup after his ankle break last winter/spring, and when he came back from injury this year in December, I jumped. He's been brilliant and offers MUN something few teams have; a true out-and-out winger. But he's also good in front of goal too; 2 goals and 8 assists since GW14. I kept Nani for the game against Bolton but switched him out in GW22 for Dempsey. Jackpot. My big, big, big gamble: I dropped Silva for Sessegnon. Sessegnon is on fire though, and seemed strangely under the radar. I feel a bit like a guy walking around without any pants on without Nani and Silva, especially Mr. Consistent, Silva. I will only have lost 0.4 on Silva if I get him back; which I am thinking about. I wouldn't recommend dropping Silva; when you watch MNC and you see the guy get every 3rd touch on that team, you know an assist is coming. Plus, he's on 46% ownership. My rationale was: I needed the money for Aguero, and Aguero's points will 'cover' the loss of Silva. Not so far. I feel less chuffed about Nani; Valencia looks the more dangerous midfielder for MUN and Dempsey, while playing for a team averaging 0.67 gpg away from Craven Cottage, is a steady performer, who, at the end of the day, will be north of 160 FF points this year. Until Rooney gets his mojo back, Valencia is plenty of attacking MUN cover.
I also looked at a 2 budget rotation model in midfield (w/3 'elite' mids and 3 'elite' forwards), and guys like M.Davies and C.Eagles(BOL), A.Surman(NOR), J.Morrison(WBA), D.Murphy(FUL), S.Petrov and S.Ireland (AVL), and N.Dyer and way under the radar Gylfi Sigurdsson (SWN), all look like worthy guys you could rotate consistently and expect returns.
Forwards
RvP
Sturridge
Adebayor>>Aguero
I think you are crazy not to own RvP. Essentially, I plan to captain him about 90% of the time. If you don't have him by now, you've got to think about his price and whether you can get good value for that money elsewhere. But his goalscoring record over the last 12 months is phenomenal. I kept Sturridge, although I actually dropped him and brought in Yakubu, made money off Yakubu's price rise, and brought Sturridge back. I'm not sold on Sturridge (well, not sold on Chelsea), but he's reasonably cheap for access to the 4th highest goal scoring team in the Prem. And he's their leading goalscorer at forward. But he's the guy I might drop for the cash if I decide to bring Silva back in. There are a number of budget forward options who might match Sturridge's goal production thi year: Morison(NOR), Helguson(QPR), Graham(SWN), Yakubu(BLA), Fletcher(WW). My favorite in the high-end budget category is Zamora.
I also don't think Adebayor has forgotten how to score, but I've felt like Aguero is a 'must have' for most of the season, so I sacrificed Adebayor, who I'd had since very, very early in the season. Unfortunately, I didn't really examine Aguero's record in detail until his second straight 2-pointer for me; 8 goals in GW1-5; 6 goals in GW6-22. With Balotelli threatened with a suspension, I am looking at Dzeko either in tandem with Aguero or as a replacement for Aguero. I still feel good about Aguero (good attacking numbers, looks like MNC's main dangerman when you watch MNC), but I'm a little nervous that I sacrificed Silva for him.
So those were my selections and the thinking behind them. I've also outlined some variations I thought about running with; and I've mentioned my trepidation about some of my moves. Keep the wheat and toss the chaffe. The WC has paid off so far; 2 green arrows and into the top 3300+ in the world. But rust never sleeps . . .
GK
Vorm
Friedel >>Mignolet
I seriously thought about riding the American for the rest of the season and dropping Vorm for, say Ruddy, as a pure backup, but I wouldn't have made enough money on Vorm to justify it. I also think 2 relatively inexpensive GK who rotate well is the way to go. Vorm is the only guy I've had in my team since GW1 and I can see SWN keeping a few more CS. I went for Mignolet at 1.3 in savings on Friedel and I think MON has reinstilled belief in SUN, so I like Mignolet in tandem with Vorm. There are better rotation candidates (Al-Haibsi, Hennessey, Foster) with Vorm, but I think MON has the ship pointed in the right direction and I think Mignolet looks a top keeper.
Defenders
Enrique
J.Evans
Simpson>>Williamson
McAuley>>Clichy
Hanley>>Dawson
A quick look at the left hand column and you can see why I wanted to WC. I bought Enrique early on and LIV continue to offer good value in defense. J.Evans is virtually nailed on at MUN on his return from injury and especially so now that P.Jones is out. On 3.7% ownership, Evans has seven clean sheets in a part-time season. I like NWC's defense but I think Williamson has a slightly better chance of getting a goal from a set piece than the defensive minded Simpson; this was a sideways move pricewise for me, so an easy one to make. I'm not going to recap my stupidity in bringing in Hanley but it's quite clear that he had to go; McAuley is cheap but WBA are just too inconsistent to justify anyone in that defense except maybe Foster in goal. I feel a MNC defender is essential and Clichy is the cheapest guy in the bunch, although I'll acknowledge he is under some threat from Kolarov. I almost went for Lescott but I think he's under threat from Toure when he returns from ACN and I didn't want to burn a transfer later. I went for Michael Dawson here, although I'm going to acknowledge this was a mistake; I was overly concerned that TOT were playing WW in GW21, and I was afraid all those in my league with BAE would steal 6 points from me. Of course, Wolves scored and it was a pointless exercise. I will probably keep Dawson v. Wigan in GW23 (although he too, is under threat from Ledley King as we saw in the MNC game) and then swap him out for a budget guy that rotates well with Williamson or 'big up' to a MNC guy, like Kompany.
A bigger point here about the defense; and that point is the so-called 'Merritt Rule', named after my good friend and manager of ForzaInter, often referred to here (he's 3rd in our minileague and in 5 years of playing this game I've beaten him only once). The Merritt Rule is simple: a FF team must carry 3 'elite' team defenders, preferably the cheapest ones that start, but 3 even if you have to pay a premium for one. This was an iron clad rule for me until last year when it seemed like CS became less predictable. But as you can see above, I'm back as a believer in the rule (Enrique, Clichy, Evans). I am also thinking about the Merritt Rule + 1; I am toying with the idea of replacing Dawson with another MNC defender.
Midfield
Bale
Valencia
*Nani>>(GW22)Dempsey
Silva>>Sessegnon
Drenthe>>Moses
Bale is cheaper than VdV, so he stays although I think both will score big this year. Valencia killed last season when he came back into the lineup after his ankle break last winter/spring, and when he came back from injury this year in December, I jumped. He's been brilliant and offers MUN something few teams have; a true out-and-out winger. But he's also good in front of goal too; 2 goals and 8 assists since GW14. I kept Nani for the game against Bolton but switched him out in GW22 for Dempsey. Jackpot. My big, big, big gamble: I dropped Silva for Sessegnon. Sessegnon is on fire though, and seemed strangely under the radar. I feel a bit like a guy walking around without any pants on without Nani and Silva, especially Mr. Consistent, Silva. I will only have lost 0.4 on Silva if I get him back; which I am thinking about. I wouldn't recommend dropping Silva; when you watch MNC and you see the guy get every 3rd touch on that team, you know an assist is coming. Plus, he's on 46% ownership. My rationale was: I needed the money for Aguero, and Aguero's points will 'cover' the loss of Silva. Not so far. I feel less chuffed about Nani; Valencia looks the more dangerous midfielder for MUN and Dempsey, while playing for a team averaging 0.67 gpg away from Craven Cottage, is a steady performer, who, at the end of the day, will be north of 160 FF points this year. Until Rooney gets his mojo back, Valencia is plenty of attacking MUN cover.
I also looked at a 2 budget rotation model in midfield (w/3 'elite' mids and 3 'elite' forwards), and guys like M.Davies and C.Eagles(BOL), A.Surman(NOR), J.Morrison(WBA), D.Murphy(FUL), S.Petrov and S.Ireland (AVL), and N.Dyer and way under the radar Gylfi Sigurdsson (SWN), all look like worthy guys you could rotate consistently and expect returns.
Forwards
RvP
Sturridge
Adebayor>>Aguero
I think you are crazy not to own RvP. Essentially, I plan to captain him about 90% of the time. If you don't have him by now, you've got to think about his price and whether you can get good value for that money elsewhere. But his goalscoring record over the last 12 months is phenomenal. I kept Sturridge, although I actually dropped him and brought in Yakubu, made money off Yakubu's price rise, and brought Sturridge back. I'm not sold on Sturridge (well, not sold on Chelsea), but he's reasonably cheap for access to the 4th highest goal scoring team in the Prem. And he's their leading goalscorer at forward. But he's the guy I might drop for the cash if I decide to bring Silva back in. There are a number of budget forward options who might match Sturridge's goal production thi year: Morison(NOR), Helguson(QPR), Graham(SWN), Yakubu(BLA), Fletcher(WW). My favorite in the high-end budget category is Zamora.
I also don't think Adebayor has forgotten how to score, but I've felt like Aguero is a 'must have' for most of the season, so I sacrificed Adebayor, who I'd had since very, very early in the season. Unfortunately, I didn't really examine Aguero's record in detail until his second straight 2-pointer for me; 8 goals in GW1-5; 6 goals in GW6-22. With Balotelli threatened with a suspension, I am looking at Dzeko either in tandem with Aguero or as a replacement for Aguero. I still feel good about Aguero (good attacking numbers, looks like MNC's main dangerman when you watch MNC), but I'm a little nervous that I sacrificed Silva for him.
So those were my selections and the thinking behind them. I've also outlined some variations I thought about running with; and I've mentioned my trepidation about some of my moves. Keep the wheat and toss the chaffe. The WC has paid off so far; 2 green arrows and into the top 3300+ in the world. But rust never sleeps . . .
Monday, January 23, 2012
GW22 Takeaway: once a season satisfaction
When you spend as much time researching, thinking, obsessing over this game as I do, when you get it right, it is so truly satisfying. A 74 point week gave me clear breathing room in my minileague and took me to 3300+ in the world. I used my Jan window WC in GW21(more later) and brought in Sessengon and Valencia and used my free this week to bring in Dempsey for Nani. The Portugese tormented Johan Djourou to no FF effect; Dempsey, of course, went all hat-trick on Newcastle. That threesome were able to cover a backline that garnered me zero, zip, nada, this week - Clichy, Williamson, Enrique - my only defensive points coming from Sunderland's Mignolet. A few thoughts on the GW . . .
1. Norwich keep Chelsea off the board. I haven't been a believer in Norwich; I've felt they would fall to earth sooner or later. Not so sure after a steely display and well-deserved point v. Chelsea (and learned Zak Whitbread is American by birth; Klinnsman you clueless f***, give this guy a call!!!). Unfortunately, the Norwich midfield is a Lambert roulette wheel in terms of selection. I really, really like Andrew Surman in this team at 4.4; his attacking statistics are good and in the games I have seen he looks a proper EPL winger, but Lambert has had him in and out recently. Morison is still the guy to look at in this team if your forward model is 2 elites/1 budget, but I've also been impressed with Grant Holt too.
As for Chelsea, pffft. They look positively ponderous in attack. I have Sturridge, who still seems the best way in to a team 4th in the league in goals scored, but my patience is running out, especially with so many budget options producing goals, 2 on offer in this one. Meanwhile I was blown away that nearly 70,000 managers brought in Gary Cahill on his switch to Chelsea. No reassurance of a starting role and Chelsea kept a CS w/o him. Strange waste of a transfer for a guy who definitely should be on your Watchlist, not on your bench, just yet.
2. Everton 1 v. Backburn 1. The only thing interesting to me about this game was how dangerous David Dunn looked. At 6.2 and with a looooooooooooong injury history, he's a gamble. But when fit,well, he scored 9 league goals in 1700+ min 2 years ago and had 113 FF points. And could easily have had a hat-trick Saturday. If you are rotating a couple of budget guys in midfield, Dunn's not the worst punt as one of the 2.
3. Fulham have a crazy second half. I'm not going to say much here; I bigged up Dempsey in November and talked him up last week; I have reservations about being invested in Fulham's attack on the road but I put those aside and took my own advise and invested in the American. I bigged up Zamora and Ruiz last week; Senderos and Kelly are worth thinking about in this team. Danny Murphy is on pens and free kicks, and has terrific numbers in terms of possession and passing and is 2.5 cheaper than Dempsey or will be as the Dempsey bandwagon leaves the station.
4. Neither Chelsea, nor Liverpool, nor Arsenal seem worthy of grabbing the 4th CL spot. I've spoken about a Chelsea performance best described as, well, plodding; but Liverpool were carved open and then outworked by Bolton (go on you Wanderers !!!) and created next to nothing over the 90 minutes. I'm keeping Enrique but it's hard to look at Liverpool's attacking players and think 'I need him in'. It's a team that desperately needs Suarez back; if not to score, at least to create.
And Arsenal look an RvP injury away from 15th. I thought Ramsey might offer some FF value but he can't hit the ocean from the fucking pier; Walcott seemed to have been under the impression that Arsenal were in blue yesterday, and Andrey 'dead man walking' Arshavin came on for Oxley-Chamberlain in perhaps the most inexplicable substitution I've seen. Ever. The outside back situation is not of Wenger's creating (6 injuries) but it's hard to invest in a defense which gets beat like a drum down the left and right for 90 straight minutes. Wenger's also got a bit of a dilemna ahead; Villa in the FA Cup on the weekend and then 2 league matches in the 7 days that follow. Since Wenger appears to have no one not named van Persie or not in Africa who can, you know, score a goal, will he preserve RvP for league or throw him in v. Villa in an effort to grab some hardware ? If he plays in the FA Cup, RvP won't be my captain in GW23 v. Bolton because I don't think he'll play.
5. Phil Jones injury. It looked bad, but he is listed as out for 2-3 weeks. Whether that's an honest assessment who knows. Man Utd's schedule may scare some, but I expect a Jonny Evans bandwagon. If Evans (4.5) wasn't nailed on before, he is now. You can get access to 3 starters (most games) in the 3 meanest defenses in the EPL for $15M (Evans, Agger, Clichy). I'm just sayin'.
I wildcarded in GW21 and I'll try to do a post on those I brought in and those I considered as many (much more patient) managers have waited, and maybe my thought process might help you to think through your own WC.
1. Norwich keep Chelsea off the board. I haven't been a believer in Norwich; I've felt they would fall to earth sooner or later. Not so sure after a steely display and well-deserved point v. Chelsea (and learned Zak Whitbread is American by birth; Klinnsman you clueless f***, give this guy a call!!!). Unfortunately, the Norwich midfield is a Lambert roulette wheel in terms of selection. I really, really like Andrew Surman in this team at 4.4; his attacking statistics are good and in the games I have seen he looks a proper EPL winger, but Lambert has had him in and out recently. Morison is still the guy to look at in this team if your forward model is 2 elites/1 budget, but I've also been impressed with Grant Holt too.
As for Chelsea, pffft. They look positively ponderous in attack. I have Sturridge, who still seems the best way in to a team 4th in the league in goals scored, but my patience is running out, especially with so many budget options producing goals, 2 on offer in this one. Meanwhile I was blown away that nearly 70,000 managers brought in Gary Cahill on his switch to Chelsea. No reassurance of a starting role and Chelsea kept a CS w/o him. Strange waste of a transfer for a guy who definitely should be on your Watchlist, not on your bench, just yet.
2. Everton 1 v. Backburn 1. The only thing interesting to me about this game was how dangerous David Dunn looked. At 6.2 and with a looooooooooooong injury history, he's a gamble. But when fit,well, he scored 9 league goals in 1700+ min 2 years ago and had 113 FF points. And could easily have had a hat-trick Saturday. If you are rotating a couple of budget guys in midfield, Dunn's not the worst punt as one of the 2.
3. Fulham have a crazy second half. I'm not going to say much here; I bigged up Dempsey in November and talked him up last week; I have reservations about being invested in Fulham's attack on the road but I put those aside and took my own advise and invested in the American. I bigged up Zamora and Ruiz last week; Senderos and Kelly are worth thinking about in this team. Danny Murphy is on pens and free kicks, and has terrific numbers in terms of possession and passing and is 2.5 cheaper than Dempsey or will be as the Dempsey bandwagon leaves the station.
4. Neither Chelsea, nor Liverpool, nor Arsenal seem worthy of grabbing the 4th CL spot. I've spoken about a Chelsea performance best described as, well, plodding; but Liverpool were carved open and then outworked by Bolton (go on you Wanderers !!!) and created next to nothing over the 90 minutes. I'm keeping Enrique but it's hard to look at Liverpool's attacking players and think 'I need him in'. It's a team that desperately needs Suarez back; if not to score, at least to create.
And Arsenal look an RvP injury away from 15th. I thought Ramsey might offer some FF value but he can't hit the ocean from the fucking pier; Walcott seemed to have been under the impression that Arsenal were in blue yesterday, and Andrey 'dead man walking' Arshavin came on for Oxley-Chamberlain in perhaps the most inexplicable substitution I've seen. Ever. The outside back situation is not of Wenger's creating (6 injuries) but it's hard to invest in a defense which gets beat like a drum down the left and right for 90 straight minutes. Wenger's also got a bit of a dilemna ahead; Villa in the FA Cup on the weekend and then 2 league matches in the 7 days that follow. Since Wenger appears to have no one not named van Persie or not in Africa who can, you know, score a goal, will he preserve RvP for league or throw him in v. Villa in an effort to grab some hardware ? If he plays in the FA Cup, RvP won't be my captain in GW23 v. Bolton because I don't think he'll play.
5. Phil Jones injury. It looked bad, but he is listed as out for 2-3 weeks. Whether that's an honest assessment who knows. Man Utd's schedule may scare some, but I expect a Jonny Evans bandwagon. If Evans (4.5) wasn't nailed on before, he is now. You can get access to 3 starters (most games) in the 3 meanest defenses in the EPL for $15M (Evans, Agger, Clichy). I'm just sayin'.
I wildcarded in GW21 and I'll try to do a post on those I brought in and those I considered as many (much more patient) managers have waited, and maybe my thought process might help you to think through your own WC.
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