As I will explore, I was one of those nervous Nellies that checked out of RvP(c). Late. Friday. Night. That decision has me back outside the top 5000, which, really, I fully deserve. Luckily, RvP is still a bit of a differential among some of the challengers in my minileague, so the news was not all bad.
1. Decisions made after midnight Friday, while drinking, usually turn out bad. I took a trip Friday night to my cottage in Michigan's Upper Pennisula. Arrived late and had a few beers. Unfortunately, I then decided to take a last look at FF (worried principally about the weather) and saw the Wenger comments about 'considering' an RvP rest. I immediately logged into my team and switched RvP(c) to Aguero(c). I'd like to say I was fooled and scream outrage at those carrying the info but . . . I was only 60/40 for RvP over Aguero in the first place. I just needed a push or, more accurately, a rationale.
The bigger point to take from this, at least from my perspective is, viewing the league from 'the other side of the pond' has its advantages and its disadvantages. The big disadvantage is that, unlike European managers, I don't have the gameday morning to have a coffee, measure up the latest news, and make a studied opinion on late developments (I could, I guess, if I was willing to get up at 4:30 am on Saturdays . . . ). My team decisions are typically made by 7 pm, EST, Friday night. I might very well have laughed off the Wenger comments had I read them in a Paris cafe Saturday morning. Probably not though.
You can have too much information in this game some times.
2. Luckily, the swap out was not the end of the world. Aguero(c) meant 22+23=45 v. 11+46=57, a 12 point loss. Had I picked, say, Valencia . . . The St. Ignace News would have had a headline such as -
Man leaps from Mackinaw Bridge, Body Not Yet Found in Icy Waters
Cautionary tale: leaves note warning of fantasy football addiction
3. Man City keep another clean sheet, I am soooo glad I doubled down on Man City defenders and left Dempsey on my bench ! Oh, wait. My 2 MNC defenders were Kompany and Clichy. I'm okay with the occasional Clichy rotation at his price (well, maybe not) but Kompany came out of the blue (pun not intended). I picked up Kompany to cover for those CS Clichy missed out on and to double down on the defense I expect to keep the most CS in the run-in. I am going to be rethinking Clichy. My theory was that Mancini would use Kolarov in Europa league and Clichy in the Prem. Perhaps this was a 1-off with Mancini realizing Fulham were coming in to the match with 0.67 gpg away, and no established forward starting, and decided he could risk Kolarov. Anyway, I hope.
Anyway, with Kompany/Clichy on the bench, I get J.Evans(-1) and, of course, Dempsey(2), subbing in. Ouch.
4. Moses makes lineup, scores 2 FF points ! Just as he has on 16 other occasions this year. Sixteen 2-pointers seems almost impossible ! With players like McLean, Surman, Pilkington, Dyer, Sigurdsson (the favorite right now), Dyer, Buzsaky available, my desperate hope that Moses would somehow translate his good attacking numbers into FF points is near an end. Wigan have a decent near-term schedule, so I might, just out of perversity stay with him. But Oxlade-Chamberlain is only 1.0 more . . .
5. Swansea and Norwich keep rolling. I expected these 2 teams to fall off considerably in the second half but that doesn't look like happening. Both have decent near term schedules. Anyone from Vorm, Rangel, Caulker, A.Williams, C.Taylor, Allen, Dyer, Sinclair, Sigurdsson, and Graham (4.8 - 8G/2A/12BP), are worth owning, depending on your needs. Norwich is a slightly more mixed bag but Ruddy (as your budget back up GK), Pilkington, Surman, B.Johnson - all good value as a 5th midfielder, and Holt or Morison as a 3rd forward, all look like they should be in the conversation in their price range.
6. Man Utd keep the goals coming. Reports of Rooney's FF demise were greatly exagerrated. I think Man Utd attacking exposure is de riguer (I have Valencia who had a rare off-day). Man Utd have 59 goals so far, 4 behind leader Man City and 13 more goals than the 3rd highest scoring team, Arsenal. Valencia's nailed-on position in right midfield may bear some risk with Ashley Young back but I am going to live with that for now. Wayne Rooney (from the spot 2x) reminds us that he is still a FF monster. Welbeck/Hernandez are both worth monitoring and if one should emerge, Man Utd have a good run of games beginning in GW28. In defense, despite his nightmare GW, J.Evans price means he's worth owning, in my opinion.
7. Liverpool v Tottenham still to come today. Tottenham are nearly home and dry for CL football next year, and a point this afternoon takes them 7 points clear of Chelsea in 4th. Liverpool can get within 2 points of Chelsea with a win. This is a massive game for Liverpool. For FF purposes, I'm at cross purposes with Bale and Enrique starting for me. As a Liverpool fan, I am hoping for a win; as a FF manager I am hoping further for a CS . . .
Why do you torture yourself with Moses? You got your wish of a CS with the Spurs -v- Pool match. Unfortunately for you and I, Enrique did not play.
ReplyDeleteI stay with Moses because his attacking numbers in the Members/FFS section remain strong. And now the Wigan schedule has flipped back to favorable. As you say, I may just be torturing myself. The other aspect is - I typically play 3-4-3 or sometimes 4-3-3, so having Moses around doesn't really cost me anything. However, I did start him this week for the first time all season and it came up . . . 2 points. Sigurdsson is mighty appealing at 0.2 more.
ReplyDeleteLet me ask you a question about FORM as calculated by the FPL. Is this correct:
ReplyDeleteFORM = (GW1+GW2+GW3+GW4)/4
Where GWx = number of points scored by that particular player/club etc.
Thanks.
That's it as I understand it. I actually rely on the great work FFS do in the Members section much more than the FPL numbers. And FPL Chris's weekly team charts are invaluable and usually quite eye-opening in terms of picking between 2 players you are thinking about rotating. In terms of the FPL numbers, I look at FPL's 'Saves' filter when I am contemplating a GK transfer but aside from total points, I don't really focus on FPL's filter categories.
ReplyDeleteI also look at a player's history more than maybe some others do. So, I have, for instance, James Morrison on my Watchlist, not based on his GW22 performance but because he has had 2 years of scores in the high 80s despite playing 2200+ min each year for a midtable/low-end team. Bobby Zamora, same thing. So, you know these guys have a history of being decent FF shouts if they get a run of games. It's the one thing I perhaps look at a bit more than other managers when I am selecting that 9th-13th man in my squad or contemplating a transfer - does the guy have a decent FF history even if it's been injury-marred.
For instance, I was sure Demba Ba would do well this year based on his West Ham performance in the second half last year. He was way under the radar in preseason. I had him in my GW1 team but dropped him after Pardew dropped him in GW2. My mistake.