As we head into GW10 and prices for high value players skyrocket, here's a few players I expect to do well over the next 6 or so games and may take some pressure off your budget.
Tom Cleverly (5.3). Started Man Utd's first 4 games before he was injured. He's coming back into the squad now. Whether he displaces Fletcher or Anderson remains to be seen, but he was a bit of a revelation at the start of the year. Aside from a tricky game @ Everton this week, the Man Utd schedule takes a big turn for the better.
Michael Turner (4.3). Sunderland defender with a recent clean sheet and with Titus Bramble in legal trouble may be nailed on for the foreseeable future. Good FF point history with Hull City, and the Sunderland near term schedule is very good, bar a trip to Old Trafford.
Nicklas Bendtner (6.4). Despite apparently being a legend in his own mind, he is owned by only 1.2% of FF managers. But he had a terrific goal per minutes played record at Arsenal, usually as a sort of storkish, completely out-of-position right wing. He's claimed the Sunderland center forward role and has done well already with 2 goals, 3 assists, and 5 BPs, despite sitting the bench at Atrsenal early on and then missing Sunderland's recent Arsenal fixture. I expect Bendtner to score in the 12-14 goal area this season, and it looks like he has also been valuable at setting up teammates. Aside from maybe Sturridge and Ba, the best less than 8.0 forward in FF, in my opinion. Sunderland's next 6: AVL, mnu, FUL, WIG, wol, BLA. Tasty.
Danny Graham (4.8). Swansea striker has started to come out of his early season funk. He's had 17 attempts on goal, which puts him among the league leaders and has 3 goals in his last 3 games. Swansea have 4 of the next 6 games at home.
Joe Allen (4.5). At the low end of the budget scale and perhaps not nailed on with the return to training of Kemy Agustien, Allen has taken his chance to start and run with it. The Welsh international has a goal, 2 assists, and 2 BPs in 6 starts. He has slotted in in an attacking midfield role. Again, he may not hold his starting role but only Anthony Pilkington has a higher value rating.
David Wheater(4.4). It's a pretty big gamble to slot in a defender from a side that has picked the ball out of the back of the net 24 times this year, but Wheater has a good FF history, going back to Middleborough and appears to have supplanted Zat Knight in Owen Coyle's back line. Bolton have a nice run of 6 games, with only a trip to Tottenham to present a big worry.
Albert Crusat (4.8). This is an out-of-left-outfield selection and represents a gamble. But I watched the Wigan v. Newcastle match and the 'wee man' looked a real player. I wonder if Martinez is about to give him a run in the side. Statistically he wasn't brilliant, but he showed some class on the wing for Wigan and if he's given a run of games to settle into the English game . . . Wigan have a decent schedule ahead.
Jon Walters (6.1). Listed as a midfielder (and therefore subject to picking up 1 point for CS) but playing forward in a 4-4-1-1, Walters represents good value as an oop. 6 goals, 3 assists and 109 FF points in 2300 minutes last year, he already has 2 double figure GWs this year. He's on pens too. Owned by just 6.4% of managers. And Stoke have a very, very good short term schedule: NEW, bol, QPR, BLA, eve, TOT.
Matthew Etherington (6.4). Very, very underrated FF talent. Owned by only 3.2% of managers Etherington is a proven FF performer, with free kicks and corners in his locker - he had 124 and 146 FF points the last 2 years in 2500 and 2800 minutes, respectively. 3 assists and 5 BP this year and despite some injuries this year which has cost him serious minutes, he's still 11th in FPL in successful crosses. Stoke's short term schedule is very good and if Etherington resolves his injury issues, he's a valuable FF addition to your midfield.
Daniel Sturridge(6.9). His price is starting to rise as more and more managers notice (still, only held by 7.1% of managers) but he still looks good value as the cheap way into the Chelsea attack. Looks like an AVB first choice selection on the right of Chelsea's forward line (he's been selected to start in every league match he's been available). 8 goals in half a season loaned to Bolton last year, he already has 4 goals this year, despite serving a 3 game ban to start the season. Chelsea have some tough home fixtures ahead but 4 of their next 6 are at Stamford Bridge.
So that's list of some low priced options - there are a few more and some on this list represent a gamble - but if you peruse the players lists and use some of the options on the FPL players filters, you can find a fair few bargains.
Friday, October 28, 2011
Monday, October 24, 2011
Monday, Monday . . .
Another week, another captain selection fail. The side currently -
Vorm/Schwarzer
Boswinga, Enrique, Woodgate, Simpson, Monk
Nani, Silva, Ramires, Ramsey, Moses
Aguero, Suarez, Adebayor. 0.8 in the bank.
I like the team but there are some serious question marks - Woodgate, Monk, Moses. Plus the issue of banking a little more money so the team has the flexibility to bring in van Persie/Rooney/Torres/Van der Vaart as necessary.
Anyway a few notes on GW9 -
Vorm/Schwarzer
Boswinga, Enrique, Woodgate, Simpson, Monk
Nani, Silva, Ramires, Ramsey, Moses
Aguero, Suarez, Adebayor. 0.8 in the bank.
I like the team but there are some serious question marks - Woodgate, Monk, Moses. Plus the issue of banking a little more money so the team has the flexibility to bring in van Persie/Rooney/Torres/Van der Vaart as necessary.
Anyway a few notes on GW9 -
- The Bonus Point system is a mess. I get that it's all statistically based, but when Dzeko gets BPs for 2 meaningless goals in a 20 minute cameo and Ballotelli gets no BPs after scoring 2 goals at critical junctures of the game . . . something is a miss. Or Crouch gets a BP for a goal in a 3-1 loss. Or Holt gets 3 BP for a goal in a 25 minute cameo in which his team is completely and utterly dominated . . . well, strange.
- Swansea continue to give up goals away, but their budget midfielders and Danny Graham look like they are coming round as good values. I mentioned Joe Allen(4.5) in Part 3 of my early season review and with a goal in GW9 he looks a good short term value.
- Gerrard's back to hoover up the BPs for Liverpool . . . which makes Suarez a lot less valuable in my opinion. Suarez has a remarkable game, is denied by 3 terrific Ruddy saves, and created several chances on his own but Bellamy and Gerrard get the BPs. Another point worth mentioning is that Suarez has 4 goals but no double figure GWs. I'll probably stick until after the home match v. Swansea but I think the introduction of Gerrard makes Suarez significantly less valuable.
- In my desperation to bring in Aguero a couple of weeks ago I ignored the FF force that is Robin van Persie. Aside from visits to Chelsea this week and a visit to Man City in GW16, Arsenal have a terrific schedule through to the New Year. If you don't have RvP, you might think about how to get him in.
- Clean Sheets seem random. Chelsea have one, Man Utd are an ongoing disaster in back, and Liverpool have 2. Man City seem the only consistent CS bet. Meanwhile, sides like Swansea, QPR, and Newcastle have their share. So - why not play it cheap in back and invest in heavy hitting attackers ?
- I don't put a lot of stock in the final score in the Manchester derby - and I wouldn't sell my Man Utd assets because of it.
- Moses continuing failure to provide FF returns has simply made me more determined to keep him. After all Sessegnon came good this week. There is hope.
- Bolton. WTF ? Tough early schedule but home losses to Norwich and now Sunderland raise question marks about the side. They can't keep other teams from scoring. Unfortunately, they don't have a widely sought after international center back to hold the defense together. Er . . . .Speaking of widely sought after internationals, Gary Cahill has 19 points on the season, 13 from GW1 - which means he has 6 points in the last 8 GWs. But is owned by over 25% of teams. Which suggests how many managers actually pay attention.
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Early season assessment, Part 3
With news filtering in on the return of many players from internationals, and anticipation high for GW8, we take a look at the rest of the teams. But first . . . an editorial comment on the US national team.
I didn't see the Honduras game but winning 1-0 over the C team from Honduras - and scoring only the second goal in Klinsman's 4 game tenure - is nothing to get excited about. And then they were poor against Ecuador in a 1-0 loss. Honestly, just poor. They created nothing but what might be charitably referred to as "half-chances". And I don't know what new system Klinsman is trying to instill, but the US looked a poorer version of the old US - lots of balls lumped forward from Howard and the defenders; a midfield incapable of possessing the ball (with Bradley in the second half the one exception); and a front line lacking creativity and finishing ability (with Dempsey, who is, in fact, a midfielder, the one player willing to take defenders on). Klinsman's failure to give Bradley a nailed on spot in the team says it all for me. And then you had the ESPN2 commentators - led by the idiotic Alexi Lalas - raving about the "positives" to take from the match. And Klinsman's post game interview was a lesson in fantasy. Jurgen - we can see; we're not soccer novices anymore. Fans here watch European games, Mexican games, and MLS and have now for 20 years. So, please, don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining.
Back to FF:
Newcastle. The reward for early season investment in NWC defenders will continue for a couple more weeks, as NWC play 3 of the next 4 at home. But then . . . Stoke away in GW10, then MNC and MUN away and CHE at home. If you've doubled down on Krul and another defender, you may want to shed one of the 2 after Wigan visit in GW9. The attacking assets here are all of the budget variety. I keep waiting for Cabaye to become the next big thing in budget midfielders, but it hasn't happened yet and so far, his stats don't suggest he is someone to gamble on just yet. Ba was very good in half a year at West Ham last year and since Pardew has brought him back to the starting line-up he has produced. Good value at 6.2.
Norwich. Not much to care about in this side unless you are looking for rock bottom budget guys just in case your starters unexpectedly don't play. You can look over this roster and find bottom-basement budget guys everywhere but not anyone you'd say 'gee, that's a good rotation candidate'.
QPR. They've been absolutely tonked twice, once home and once away, but also have 3 CS, so consistency is not a watermark for this team. But with enough good results in the book, you'd be OK thinking a few on this team are good guys to have in rotation with others in your team: Kenny, Ferdinand, Gabbidon(when fit), Barton, Taraabt, Faurlin(his Opta stats are impressive and he is 5.0), SWP all look OK to have in your team so long as you have rotation candidates to match the QPR schedule.
Stoke. Their home results against the likes of CHE, LIV, and MNU suggest the Stoke defense is for real. So, Begovic, Woodgate(@ 4.5 and seemingly targeted for EPL action only by Pulis) and Shawcross look good value. Going forward, Stoke have 4 goals, so the options here are less inviting but with 4 of the next 6 at home - and all inviting games - you would expect things to pick up. If Etherington can return to fitness (injections for his back this week ?) he is a good value. Walters seems to have cemented his place in the side and at 6.0 is good value as an OOP as a listed midfielder. I've always liked Pennant (5.8) and if Etherington is missing he was on some free kicks last year, and might pick up those duties again.
Sunderland. Another team which has had an up and down season which has included some surprise losses and a 4-0 beatdown of Stoke. Again, some good options in rotation if you are looking to get all 15 players in your team involved. Mignolet rotates well with Krul, Kenny or Al-Habsi; W.Brown, O'Shea. In attack, I really like Larsson, who scored for Sweden as well this week. He's got a great target now in Bendtner and has free kick duties. A slight price rise to 6.6. I'm a big fan of Bendtner, and although he has to sit this week v. ARS, I think he is a potential 12-14 goal scorer this year, based on his statistics from prior years. Sessegnon, after a lot of preseason hype on some FF websites, has been a bust. I've seen Sunderland only once this year and the lad was awful. Awful. The manager has talked about moving him in the formation a bit the Frenchman will have to prove a lot before I bite.
Swansea. The new boys have established a decent defensive reputation and if you don't have Vorm as your GK, anyone across the back 4 looks good value. One player who might be a bit under the radar coming off injury is Gary Monk, who, I think, was the team captain and was a nailed on starter in the promotion campaign til injury interrupted his season. He's 4.0 and has 2 CS in 3 starts. There are some real bargains in midfield too - Scott Sinclair was all the rage in FF preseason teams, and is starting to come good. But there are 2 bargain basement choices here too - Nathan Dyer has been swept up by lots of managers and has seen his price rise to 4.8. But perhaps a better bargain is Joe Allen, a Welsh national team player - played a part in every SWN game, including starts in the last 3 where he has bagged 2 assists. Oh, and he's 4.5. I still like Danny Graham as a budget forward if you aren't going with 3 high priced forwards. He broke his scoring duck last GW and I would expect 10 goals or so this season.
Tottenham. The usual suspects here. Van der Vaert and Adebayor. I think it's worth looking at Gareth Bale. While VdV seems to constantly be carrying the threat of a hamstring problem, Bale's Opta numbers are terrific. I also think Modric is a bit underrated as a FF prospect. At 8.0 he might be a bit overpriced, but you might pay that for consistency. If he has a relatively injury free season, his history suggests he'll be north of 135 points this season. With Adebayor at 8.5, you'd prefer him to similarly priced Defoe, but I think Adebayor is one of the premier strikers in EPL and if Harry can keep him motivated, 8.5 represents a bargain. I love Freidel but I think all of the TOT defense is overpriced.
WBA. FF darling Ben Foster has 2 CS in 7, despite a brutal opening 2 games, and he remains good value for me if he is in rotation with another bargain GK. The Baggies play 4 of the next 6 at home. One intriguing defender is Gareth McAuley who has started 2 straight games at CB. At 4.0, he might turn out to be a good squad defender. Probably worth monitoring over the next few GWs to insure he has taken over Tamas' spot. In attack, the Baggies have suffered from injury with reliables like Chris Brunt and Peter Odemwingie missing games. Shane Long at 6.0 with 3 goals looks a decent budget forward, and I understand Hodgson is experimenting with a 4-3-3 which might make the likes of a Jerome Thomas more appealing but right now WBA looks a no-go FF area until the line-up settles.
Wigan. The few, the proud, the brave, have hung on (by my count 40,000 managers have dropped him this season) to Mr. All-Preseason, Victor Moses. His Opta stats remain promising. I think, well, I hope, he comes good. But I have hedged my bets; prior to my GW7 wildcard, Moses was part of a Stoosher home/away rotation with Martin Petrov. No more - he is now purely a squad guy in the event a Stoosher starter is ruled out. From all reports Wigan is a small town which has suffered substantial economic decline, the team plays on a rugby ground and seem to have no more than 12-15,000 committed supporters, but have a completely irrepressible, positive manager who wants to play good football, so I have a bit of a soft spot for Wigan. Aside from a very good budget value GK in Al-Habsi, 2 other names are worth mentioning: Ben Watson in midfield, at 5.4, is on free kicks, and, so far as I can tell pens; and Franco Di Santo at 5.7 - who, in the absence of Rodellega, has popped in 3 goals. Wigan are wildly inconsistent and don't keep many CSs so I would avoid the defense (aside from Al-Habsi). That said, they have a very good 6 game run ahead where they don't play anybody who would particularly scare you. Could they grab 6-7 goals in that stretch ? Possible.
Wolves. Wolves started the season like gang busters . . . but have now lost 4 straight and scored only 6 goals all season. I can't imagine Mick McCarthy won't get the ship righted and WW seem to have a slew of good budget options - even if they haven't panned out yet. Hennessey is a terrific GK and works well in tandem with, say, Begovic or Mignolet or Foster. Ditto defenders like Berra and the frequently OOP Stephen Ward. Roger Johnson at a higher price comes with some goal threat. I am going to fight through the prejudice I gained watching Wolves in a completely turgid performance against Villa, and remain positive on WW budget assets. Jamie O'Hara is a past favorite of Stooshers, with both Pompey and Wolves, and his Opta stats are really, really good. So if you are in a 'stick or twist' dilemma with him in your team I say: stick. Same with Jarvis and Hunt. I am also a huge FF fan of Stephen Fletcher. He has 3 goals this year despite missing a game and not starting another, and he scored 10 goals last season in the equivalent of 15 games. And his price has dropped to 6.1. The best value for a budget forward out there, imo.
So, there you have it lads, the early season assessment on all the teams. Good luck as we head through the first turn.
I didn't see the Honduras game but winning 1-0 over the C team from Honduras - and scoring only the second goal in Klinsman's 4 game tenure - is nothing to get excited about. And then they were poor against Ecuador in a 1-0 loss. Honestly, just poor. They created nothing but what might be charitably referred to as "half-chances". And I don't know what new system Klinsman is trying to instill, but the US looked a poorer version of the old US - lots of balls lumped forward from Howard and the defenders; a midfield incapable of possessing the ball (with Bradley in the second half the one exception); and a front line lacking creativity and finishing ability (with Dempsey, who is, in fact, a midfielder, the one player willing to take defenders on). Klinsman's failure to give Bradley a nailed on spot in the team says it all for me. And then you had the ESPN2 commentators - led by the idiotic Alexi Lalas - raving about the "positives" to take from the match. And Klinsman's post game interview was a lesson in fantasy. Jurgen - we can see; we're not soccer novices anymore. Fans here watch European games, Mexican games, and MLS and have now for 20 years. So, please, don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining.
Back to FF:
Newcastle. The reward for early season investment in NWC defenders will continue for a couple more weeks, as NWC play 3 of the next 4 at home. But then . . . Stoke away in GW10, then MNC and MUN away and CHE at home. If you've doubled down on Krul and another defender, you may want to shed one of the 2 after Wigan visit in GW9. The attacking assets here are all of the budget variety. I keep waiting for Cabaye to become the next big thing in budget midfielders, but it hasn't happened yet and so far, his stats don't suggest he is someone to gamble on just yet. Ba was very good in half a year at West Ham last year and since Pardew has brought him back to the starting line-up he has produced. Good value at 6.2.
Norwich. Not much to care about in this side unless you are looking for rock bottom budget guys just in case your starters unexpectedly don't play. You can look over this roster and find bottom-basement budget guys everywhere but not anyone you'd say 'gee, that's a good rotation candidate'.
QPR. They've been absolutely tonked twice, once home and once away, but also have 3 CS, so consistency is not a watermark for this team. But with enough good results in the book, you'd be OK thinking a few on this team are good guys to have in rotation with others in your team: Kenny, Ferdinand, Gabbidon(when fit), Barton, Taraabt, Faurlin(his Opta stats are impressive and he is 5.0), SWP all look OK to have in your team so long as you have rotation candidates to match the QPR schedule.
Stoke. Their home results against the likes of CHE, LIV, and MNU suggest the Stoke defense is for real. So, Begovic, Woodgate(@ 4.5 and seemingly targeted for EPL action only by Pulis) and Shawcross look good value. Going forward, Stoke have 4 goals, so the options here are less inviting but with 4 of the next 6 at home - and all inviting games - you would expect things to pick up. If Etherington can return to fitness (injections for his back this week ?) he is a good value. Walters seems to have cemented his place in the side and at 6.0 is good value as an OOP as a listed midfielder. I've always liked Pennant (5.8) and if Etherington is missing he was on some free kicks last year, and might pick up those duties again.
Sunderland. Another team which has had an up and down season which has included some surprise losses and a 4-0 beatdown of Stoke. Again, some good options in rotation if you are looking to get all 15 players in your team involved. Mignolet rotates well with Krul, Kenny or Al-Habsi; W.Brown, O'Shea. In attack, I really like Larsson, who scored for Sweden as well this week. He's got a great target now in Bendtner and has free kick duties. A slight price rise to 6.6. I'm a big fan of Bendtner, and although he has to sit this week v. ARS, I think he is a potential 12-14 goal scorer this year, based on his statistics from prior years. Sessegnon, after a lot of preseason hype on some FF websites, has been a bust. I've seen Sunderland only once this year and the lad was awful. Awful. The manager has talked about moving him in the formation a bit the Frenchman will have to prove a lot before I bite.
Swansea. The new boys have established a decent defensive reputation and if you don't have Vorm as your GK, anyone across the back 4 looks good value. One player who might be a bit under the radar coming off injury is Gary Monk, who, I think, was the team captain and was a nailed on starter in the promotion campaign til injury interrupted his season. He's 4.0 and has 2 CS in 3 starts. There are some real bargains in midfield too - Scott Sinclair was all the rage in FF preseason teams, and is starting to come good. But there are 2 bargain basement choices here too - Nathan Dyer has been swept up by lots of managers and has seen his price rise to 4.8. But perhaps a better bargain is Joe Allen, a Welsh national team player - played a part in every SWN game, including starts in the last 3 where he has bagged 2 assists. Oh, and he's 4.5. I still like Danny Graham as a budget forward if you aren't going with 3 high priced forwards. He broke his scoring duck last GW and I would expect 10 goals or so this season.
Tottenham. The usual suspects here. Van der Vaert and Adebayor. I think it's worth looking at Gareth Bale. While VdV seems to constantly be carrying the threat of a hamstring problem, Bale's Opta numbers are terrific. I also think Modric is a bit underrated as a FF prospect. At 8.0 he might be a bit overpriced, but you might pay that for consistency. If he has a relatively injury free season, his history suggests he'll be north of 135 points this season. With Adebayor at 8.5, you'd prefer him to similarly priced Defoe, but I think Adebayor is one of the premier strikers in EPL and if Harry can keep him motivated, 8.5 represents a bargain. I love Freidel but I think all of the TOT defense is overpriced.
WBA. FF darling Ben Foster has 2 CS in 7, despite a brutal opening 2 games, and he remains good value for me if he is in rotation with another bargain GK. The Baggies play 4 of the next 6 at home. One intriguing defender is Gareth McAuley who has started 2 straight games at CB. At 4.0, he might turn out to be a good squad defender. Probably worth monitoring over the next few GWs to insure he has taken over Tamas' spot. In attack, the Baggies have suffered from injury with reliables like Chris Brunt and Peter Odemwingie missing games. Shane Long at 6.0 with 3 goals looks a decent budget forward, and I understand Hodgson is experimenting with a 4-3-3 which might make the likes of a Jerome Thomas more appealing but right now WBA looks a no-go FF area until the line-up settles.
Wigan. The few, the proud, the brave, have hung on (by my count 40,000 managers have dropped him this season) to Mr. All-Preseason, Victor Moses. His Opta stats remain promising. I think, well, I hope, he comes good. But I have hedged my bets; prior to my GW7 wildcard, Moses was part of a Stoosher home/away rotation with Martin Petrov. No more - he is now purely a squad guy in the event a Stoosher starter is ruled out. From all reports Wigan is a small town which has suffered substantial economic decline, the team plays on a rugby ground and seem to have no more than 12-15,000 committed supporters, but have a completely irrepressible, positive manager who wants to play good football, so I have a bit of a soft spot for Wigan. Aside from a very good budget value GK in Al-Habsi, 2 other names are worth mentioning: Ben Watson in midfield, at 5.4, is on free kicks, and, so far as I can tell pens; and Franco Di Santo at 5.7 - who, in the absence of Rodellega, has popped in 3 goals. Wigan are wildly inconsistent and don't keep many CSs so I would avoid the defense (aside from Al-Habsi). That said, they have a very good 6 game run ahead where they don't play anybody who would particularly scare you. Could they grab 6-7 goals in that stretch ? Possible.
Wolves. Wolves started the season like gang busters . . . but have now lost 4 straight and scored only 6 goals all season. I can't imagine Mick McCarthy won't get the ship righted and WW seem to have a slew of good budget options - even if they haven't panned out yet. Hennessey is a terrific GK and works well in tandem with, say, Begovic or Mignolet or Foster. Ditto defenders like Berra and the frequently OOP Stephen Ward. Roger Johnson at a higher price comes with some goal threat. I am going to fight through the prejudice I gained watching Wolves in a completely turgid performance against Villa, and remain positive on WW budget assets. Jamie O'Hara is a past favorite of Stooshers, with both Pompey and Wolves, and his Opta stats are really, really good. So if you are in a 'stick or twist' dilemma with him in your team I say: stick. Same with Jarvis and Hunt. I am also a huge FF fan of Stephen Fletcher. He has 3 goals this year despite missing a game and not starting another, and he scored 10 goals last season in the equivalent of 15 games. And his price has dropped to 6.1. The best value for a budget forward out there, imo.
So, there you have it lads, the early season assessment on all the teams. Good luck as we head through the first turn.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Early season assessment, Part 2
In this post I plan to look at the teams individually. That may involve some analysis or it may be just to point at a feller who ought to be on your Watchlist or in your team.
Arsenal: It's getting harder and harder to feel positive about Arsenal FF assets but the immediate schedule ahead is very good (SUN,STK,che,WBA,nor,FUL) for both attack and in defense (if you think they can right the ship). Obviously van Persie is at the top of the list and makes a very good captain's choice in 5 of the next 6. I have gone for Ramsey, who looks to be getting forward at least as much as Arteta and he is significantly cheaper. I like Walcott as well, who in just over half an injury plagued season last year, had 133 points. I have liked Gervinho's performances too, in the games I've seen, but at 8.9 we have to see more to convince. I think Mertesacker will come good too but at 6.0 you have to ask why not Jones or Kompany from the Manchester teams ?
Aston Villa: I have seen Villa twice now on TV and it looks to me like MacLiesh is as interested in CS draws as much as when he was at Birmingham. Which means Given and Warnock (and possibly Hutton and Collins) are good value. 4 of the next 6 are away (including this week's trip to MNC and a GW12 visit to TOT). Bannon has been hyped quite a bit off 3 good performances and at 5.1, is a budget midfielder when we aren't seeing too many good FF performances in the >6.0 range. But will he stay in the line-up ? I wouldn't bring him in anyway this week, but certainly worth adding to the WL. Agbonlahor too, is banging them in and has a very steady record if you throw out last year's Houllier plagued year. I've had Agbonlahor in my team in years past and I found him a bit frustratingly streaky. He's never been prolific (btn 9-13 goals in the 4 years prior to last) and those goals always seemed to come in bunches. His price point at 7.1 becomes a slight issue when you think about benching him . . . not quite sold. Darren Bent has dropped in price to 9.8 (despite 2G,1A in 6 games) but this guy, imo, is . . . money. In his prior 2 seasons he scored 24 and 17 EPL goals. He scored for England Tuesday. He scores. Simple.
Blackburn: One name - Junior Hoillett. If you need a budget forward, this is your guy.
Bolton: I had Martin Petrov from GW1 and just dropped him in my GW7 WC, but I am a believer in the Bulgarian. BOL's schedule gets a ton better (wig,SUN,swa,STK,wba,EVE) and I would look for some returns from these games especially if Klasnic returns from his red card induced bench time in the same form he had in GW1-3 (3G,1A). If you've got Cahill, I would hang on to him; there will probably be 1 or 2 CS in the next 6 and he remains a goal threat from set pieces.
Chelsea: Hard to figure where to spend here, even though I want to. I got lucky and beat the bandwagon to Boswinga, but with Luiz back and in shape, you wonder (well, I wonder) if Boswinga won't get sucked back into a rotation game with Ivanovic. So, at 6.2 he is still a a cheap way into CHE defense (although CHE have produced just 1 CS in 7). In terms of attack, Lampard had a massive GW7, but I'm not convinced AVB sees him as part of his best team. And he is the most expensive midfielder in FPL. Ramires or Meireles are cheap ways into the midfield but school is out on whether they can justify their prices in your midfield. For me, it's either Mata or, at forward, Sturridge. I've seen CHE a few times and Mata looks like he will come good (and he has been pretty effective already) and at 6.5, you don't really feel bad about an occasional benching for Sturridge. But I think Sturridge is going to be nailed on for starts, to be honest. AVB has picked him in every game he has been available. I also have Torres on my Watchlist and will monitor him on his return. I have a sneaking suspicion the Spaniard will be returning to form after breaking his duck with 2 goals before his red card madness.
Everton:. Stay. Away. Next 4 games are che, ful, MUN, new. I am guessing Moyes will right the ship, but not in the next month. They'll go to CHE with the same mindset they had at MNC. And go home 2-0 losers. Again. And then they STILL have 3 tough games.
Fulham: Schwarzer is a very solid FF investment (well, I would say that, I have him) but the rest of the defense looks a bit of a no-go area. I think Hangeland and Riise are overpriced for guys you'll wind up sitting when they visit top-half of the table teams. Aaron Hughes is a good way in to this normally sturdy defense at 4.7 once he returns from injury. In attack, steady-eddy Danny Murphy will give you somewhere around 120+ points this year at a reasonable price. I don't honestly know what to make of Dempsey at 8.3. He's in the top 10 of FPL midfield scorers and he scored 168 FF points last year. I guess if you don't have enough money to go get Silva, Nani,et. al., he's the next best thing in an FPL year that seems to lack midfield depth. He has played an OOP forward at times, but with Jol bringing in some depth at forward, it's likely Dempsey will see more time on the wing. Whether that impacts his FF production remains to be seen. Zamora, if he can remain healthy, is a pretty solid squad forward, although, at 6.7, his price stretches that 'squad forward' role. Andy Johnson had a massive GW7 - and is priced beautifully at 5.1, so the question is - will Andy Johnson get enough playing time in EPL (as opposed to EL and Cups) so that he makes a comfortable 80/90 minute sub when one of your starters unexpectedly sits?
Liverpool: The return of Gerrard may cause some changes in the line-up (I can't see Lucas sitting tbh) which means Adams or Henderson's places (and knock-on, Kuyt's) place may be in jeopardy. I still think Suarez is a huge value and probably the only Liverpool attacking player, at these prices, I'd own. In defense, Enrique is a huge bargain as I think Liverpool will continue to be a top 4 side in terms of goals allowed. Their near term schedule is a real mixed bag with some games where CS are definitely in the offing, mixed with some games where they might concede 2+(MUN, NOR, wba, SWA, che, MNC).
Manchester City and Manchester United. This is really simple. You should probably have 4 from all season:
Rooney, Nani, A.Young, Hernandez (give him a week after this int'l break), Anderson, Cleverly (on his return), Jones, Smalling, Aguero (inj concern for a week or 2), Dzeko, Nasri, Silva, YaYa, Kompany, Richards, Clichy, Hart.
I'll cover the rest in a Part 3 soon.
Arsenal: It's getting harder and harder to feel positive about Arsenal FF assets but the immediate schedule ahead is very good (SUN,STK,che,WBA,nor,FUL) for both attack and in defense (if you think they can right the ship). Obviously van Persie is at the top of the list and makes a very good captain's choice in 5 of the next 6. I have gone for Ramsey, who looks to be getting forward at least as much as Arteta and he is significantly cheaper. I like Walcott as well, who in just over half an injury plagued season last year, had 133 points. I have liked Gervinho's performances too, in the games I've seen, but at 8.9 we have to see more to convince. I think Mertesacker will come good too but at 6.0 you have to ask why not Jones or Kompany from the Manchester teams ?
Aston Villa: I have seen Villa twice now on TV and it looks to me like MacLiesh is as interested in CS draws as much as when he was at Birmingham. Which means Given and Warnock (and possibly Hutton and Collins) are good value. 4 of the next 6 are away (including this week's trip to MNC and a GW12 visit to TOT). Bannon has been hyped quite a bit off 3 good performances and at 5.1, is a budget midfielder when we aren't seeing too many good FF performances in the >6.0 range. But will he stay in the line-up ? I wouldn't bring him in anyway this week, but certainly worth adding to the WL. Agbonlahor too, is banging them in and has a very steady record if you throw out last year's Houllier plagued year. I've had Agbonlahor in my team in years past and I found him a bit frustratingly streaky. He's never been prolific (btn 9-13 goals in the 4 years prior to last) and those goals always seemed to come in bunches. His price point at 7.1 becomes a slight issue when you think about benching him . . . not quite sold. Darren Bent has dropped in price to 9.8 (despite 2G,1A in 6 games) but this guy, imo, is . . . money. In his prior 2 seasons he scored 24 and 17 EPL goals. He scored for England Tuesday. He scores. Simple.
Blackburn: One name - Junior Hoillett. If you need a budget forward, this is your guy.
Bolton: I had Martin Petrov from GW1 and just dropped him in my GW7 WC, but I am a believer in the Bulgarian. BOL's schedule gets a ton better (wig,SUN,swa,STK,wba,EVE) and I would look for some returns from these games especially if Klasnic returns from his red card induced bench time in the same form he had in GW1-3 (3G,1A). If you've got Cahill, I would hang on to him; there will probably be 1 or 2 CS in the next 6 and he remains a goal threat from set pieces.
Chelsea: Hard to figure where to spend here, even though I want to. I got lucky and beat the bandwagon to Boswinga, but with Luiz back and in shape, you wonder (well, I wonder) if Boswinga won't get sucked back into a rotation game with Ivanovic. So, at 6.2 he is still a a cheap way into CHE defense (although CHE have produced just 1 CS in 7). In terms of attack, Lampard had a massive GW7, but I'm not convinced AVB sees him as part of his best team. And he is the most expensive midfielder in FPL. Ramires or Meireles are cheap ways into the midfield but school is out on whether they can justify their prices in your midfield. For me, it's either Mata or, at forward, Sturridge. I've seen CHE a few times and Mata looks like he will come good (and he has been pretty effective already) and at 6.5, you don't really feel bad about an occasional benching for Sturridge. But I think Sturridge is going to be nailed on for starts, to be honest. AVB has picked him in every game he has been available. I also have Torres on my Watchlist and will monitor him on his return. I have a sneaking suspicion the Spaniard will be returning to form after breaking his duck with 2 goals before his red card madness.
Everton:. Stay. Away. Next 4 games are che, ful, MUN, new. I am guessing Moyes will right the ship, but not in the next month. They'll go to CHE with the same mindset they had at MNC. And go home 2-0 losers. Again. And then they STILL have 3 tough games.
Fulham: Schwarzer is a very solid FF investment (well, I would say that, I have him) but the rest of the defense looks a bit of a no-go area. I think Hangeland and Riise are overpriced for guys you'll wind up sitting when they visit top-half of the table teams. Aaron Hughes is a good way in to this normally sturdy defense at 4.7 once he returns from injury. In attack, steady-eddy Danny Murphy will give you somewhere around 120+ points this year at a reasonable price. I don't honestly know what to make of Dempsey at 8.3. He's in the top 10 of FPL midfield scorers and he scored 168 FF points last year. I guess if you don't have enough money to go get Silva, Nani,et. al., he's the next best thing in an FPL year that seems to lack midfield depth. He has played an OOP forward at times, but with Jol bringing in some depth at forward, it's likely Dempsey will see more time on the wing. Whether that impacts his FF production remains to be seen. Zamora, if he can remain healthy, is a pretty solid squad forward, although, at 6.7, his price stretches that 'squad forward' role. Andy Johnson had a massive GW7 - and is priced beautifully at 5.1, so the question is - will Andy Johnson get enough playing time in EPL (as opposed to EL and Cups) so that he makes a comfortable 80/90 minute sub when one of your starters unexpectedly sits?
Liverpool: The return of Gerrard may cause some changes in the line-up (I can't see Lucas sitting tbh) which means Adams or Henderson's places (and knock-on, Kuyt's) place may be in jeopardy. I still think Suarez is a huge value and probably the only Liverpool attacking player, at these prices, I'd own. In defense, Enrique is a huge bargain as I think Liverpool will continue to be a top 4 side in terms of goals allowed. Their near term schedule is a real mixed bag with some games where CS are definitely in the offing, mixed with some games where they might concede 2+(MUN, NOR, wba, SWA, che, MNC).
Manchester City and Manchester United. This is really simple. You should probably have 4 from all season:
Rooney, Nani, A.Young, Hernandez (give him a week after this int'l break), Anderson, Cleverly (on his return), Jones, Smalling, Aguero (inj concern for a week or 2), Dzeko, Nasri, Silva, YaYa, Kompany, Richards, Clichy, Hart.
I'll cover the rest in a Part 3 soon.
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Assessing the early season, part 1
The international break gives us some time to assess the FF season so far with 18% of the season in the books. First a few general trends then a team by team look. None of this is likely to be particularly original or surprising but the season so far has given us some trends with only a bit of a GW7 glimpse that these trends may change.This will be a 2-part entry.
1. Manchester rules. To put this starkly, 7 of the top 9 FF scorers so far are in a blue or red Manchester shirt (and 1 of the 2 others is the uber-expensive and occasionally rested Lampard). And if there is anything to suggest this might end, I haven't seen it. If you don't have 3 from Rooney, Aguero, A.Young, Silva, Nani, Nasri, Dzeko, you are probably chasing your minileague leader by some distance. The only caveat here, is rotation and injury. Rooney has missed a game due to injury and Aguero left the last MNC game on 27 minutes with a groin injury. And we have seen Nasri, A.Young and probably Dzeko are real rotation risks. I wouldn't necessarily drop any of these players if you have them, but just be prepared for the occasional rotation disappointment and select your captain and vice captain choices carefully.
2. Budget or undervalued defenders have freed up cash for the expensive attacking players. Anybody who gambled on Boswinga or Jones or gambled on Enrique's switch to Liverpool has seen a real payoff as these 'budget' defenders on top teams were given starts and produced, and meanwhile the likes of NWC and SWN defenders, and the frequently OOP WW defender Stephen Ward, have freed up money for those Manchester big boys. There are lots of value buys in the 5.0 or less category in defense on teams perfectly capable of home CSs and with so many higher priced attackers hitting on all cylinders it's hard to justify a Terry or Evra or Lescott. Ditto on GKs as well. Top of the GK table are . . . Mikel Vorm and Asmir Begovic.
3. The 'star' model rules the early season. There are a couple of schools of thought - with some variations obviously - on how to set up your team but the 2 are, basically: (1) the 'rotation model' - pick 15 players that you expect to play depending on home/away or weak/strong fixtures. This strategy tends to mean you have 2 or 3 less expensive forwards/midfielders and 2 or 3 more budget guys who are starters for bottom/mid-table teams who you can rotate in as fixtures dictate. (2) the 'star model' - you go for as many expensive choices as your budget allows and you fill in your squad with cut-rate guys who may or may not play or guys who play regularly but score poorly (e.g., Tiote or Barry Ferguson last year). This means you are typically locked into a formation (3-4-3; 3-5-2) to ensure your expensive guys play every game. The second model is the hands down winner so far this year, especially since there are so many good performing cut-rate defenders which permit you to afford the more expensive attacking players we love to leave in our sides. The other thing weighing heavily against the 'rotation model' is the lack of out-of-left-field budget options in midfield or forward who are exploding on the stage a la Charlie Adams from last year. By my quick count, there are only 2 midfielders under 6.0 in the top 20 midfield scorers and only 2 under 6.0 forwards in the top 10 forward scorers.
4. It was only one week . . . but GW7 may portend some changes to all 3 of the above trends. A number of players emerged as under 7.0 options with the potential for further reward, based on past performances. In midfield you could look at Scott Sinclair(SWN) who, after a slow start, has 2 goals in his last 3 games. He was huge for SWN in their promotion campaign and with free kicks and pens in his locker, you'd expect he will be in that 130-140 points area when the season is over. Danny Murphy (FUL) plays every game for FUL, is on pens and is a bit of a BP magnet (52 in the last 3 yrs, 5 so far this year). He's a stead-eddy sort of player whose returns may not match GW7 very often but he did rack up 150 points 3 years ago. At forward, Gabby Agbonlahor reemerged this week (kudos to my friend Bretto d'Maestro for calling this one very early on) but after a stop-start season last year under Houllier, there is no reason to think that Agbonlahor won't resume where he left off - in the 4 years prior to last, he scored 144, 158, 146, and 146 FF points. Another who stepped up this past week was Nikolas Bendtner (SUN). Although he will be sitting this coming GW because of his loan arrangement with ARS, I think Bendtner's prospects this season are excellent, I think he'll be in that 12-13 goal area. Often pushed out on the right wing for ARS, a postion that always seemed particularly unsuitable for Bendtner, his 'goals to minutes played' ratio over the last few years was very good and with service from Seb Larsson, I think the Dane may emerge as a real mid-price bargain. There are others - even 2 super budget prospects, Andy Johnson and Danny Graham grabbed goals, so the trends above may yet change.
But you get the idea - if Manchester's big boys' form falls or rotation/injury take a big bite out of their performances, budget options may start to emerge.
I'll have a few more general comments next time and then a look at the teams.
1. Manchester rules. To put this starkly, 7 of the top 9 FF scorers so far are in a blue or red Manchester shirt (and 1 of the 2 others is the uber-expensive and occasionally rested Lampard). And if there is anything to suggest this might end, I haven't seen it. If you don't have 3 from Rooney, Aguero, A.Young, Silva, Nani, Nasri, Dzeko, you are probably chasing your minileague leader by some distance. The only caveat here, is rotation and injury. Rooney has missed a game due to injury and Aguero left the last MNC game on 27 minutes with a groin injury. And we have seen Nasri, A.Young and probably Dzeko are real rotation risks. I wouldn't necessarily drop any of these players if you have them, but just be prepared for the occasional rotation disappointment and select your captain and vice captain choices carefully.
2. Budget or undervalued defenders have freed up cash for the expensive attacking players. Anybody who gambled on Boswinga or Jones or gambled on Enrique's switch to Liverpool has seen a real payoff as these 'budget' defenders on top teams were given starts and produced, and meanwhile the likes of NWC and SWN defenders, and the frequently OOP WW defender Stephen Ward, have freed up money for those Manchester big boys. There are lots of value buys in the 5.0 or less category in defense on teams perfectly capable of home CSs and with so many higher priced attackers hitting on all cylinders it's hard to justify a Terry or Evra or Lescott. Ditto on GKs as well. Top of the GK table are . . . Mikel Vorm and Asmir Begovic.
3. The 'star' model rules the early season. There are a couple of schools of thought - with some variations obviously - on how to set up your team but the 2 are, basically: (1) the 'rotation model' - pick 15 players that you expect to play depending on home/away or weak/strong fixtures. This strategy tends to mean you have 2 or 3 less expensive forwards/midfielders and 2 or 3 more budget guys who are starters for bottom/mid-table teams who you can rotate in as fixtures dictate. (2) the 'star model' - you go for as many expensive choices as your budget allows and you fill in your squad with cut-rate guys who may or may not play or guys who play regularly but score poorly (e.g., Tiote or Barry Ferguson last year). This means you are typically locked into a formation (3-4-3; 3-5-2) to ensure your expensive guys play every game. The second model is the hands down winner so far this year, especially since there are so many good performing cut-rate defenders which permit you to afford the more expensive attacking players we love to leave in our sides. The other thing weighing heavily against the 'rotation model' is the lack of out-of-left-field budget options in midfield or forward who are exploding on the stage a la Charlie Adams from last year. By my quick count, there are only 2 midfielders under 6.0 in the top 20 midfield scorers and only 2 under 6.0 forwards in the top 10 forward scorers.
4. It was only one week . . . but GW7 may portend some changes to all 3 of the above trends. A number of players emerged as under 7.0 options with the potential for further reward, based on past performances. In midfield you could look at Scott Sinclair(SWN) who, after a slow start, has 2 goals in his last 3 games. He was huge for SWN in their promotion campaign and with free kicks and pens in his locker, you'd expect he will be in that 130-140 points area when the season is over. Danny Murphy (FUL) plays every game for FUL, is on pens and is a bit of a BP magnet (52 in the last 3 yrs, 5 so far this year). He's a stead-eddy sort of player whose returns may not match GW7 very often but he did rack up 150 points 3 years ago. At forward, Gabby Agbonlahor reemerged this week (kudos to my friend Bretto d'Maestro for calling this one very early on) but after a stop-start season last year under Houllier, there is no reason to think that Agbonlahor won't resume where he left off - in the 4 years prior to last, he scored 144, 158, 146, and 146 FF points. Another who stepped up this past week was Nikolas Bendtner (SUN). Although he will be sitting this coming GW because of his loan arrangement with ARS, I think Bendtner's prospects this season are excellent, I think he'll be in that 12-13 goal area. Often pushed out on the right wing for ARS, a postion that always seemed particularly unsuitable for Bendtner, his 'goals to minutes played' ratio over the last few years was very good and with service from Seb Larsson, I think the Dane may emerge as a real mid-price bargain. There are others - even 2 super budget prospects, Andy Johnson and Danny Graham grabbed goals, so the trends above may yet change.
But you get the idea - if Manchester's big boys' form falls or rotation/injury take a big bite out of their performances, budget options may start to emerge.
I'll have a few more general comments next time and then a look at the teams.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)