The Takeaway from GW13

1.  On a personal note, BPs for Monk, Sturridge, and Adebayor, helped me nose across the 60 point mark and move to 5th in my minileague (and nearly 100,000 in the world, woo-hoo!), despite RvP's first bust week in a while.  His 2-pointer raises questions early on about the armband for GW14.  Arsenal @ Wigan seems tailormade for goals but with Adebayor and Bale (Tot v. Bol); and Silva (Man City v. Nor), my preference for home captains might win out.  You also wonder whether Wenger might see a Wigan team near the bottom of the table as an opportunity to rest RvP ahead of the holiday fixture glut.  Probably not away, but the thought has to come into our thinking.

2. I think Everton should be in managers' thinking.  The 2-0 tonking of a 10 man Bolton @ the Reebok, doesn't suggest Everton will go on to start scoring for fun but  . . . look at the schedule through GW20: STK, ars, NOR, SWN, sun, wba, BOL/tot.  4 very winnable home games, and 2 away where you wouldn't expect Everton to have much fear.  And you will expect Moyes to go to Arsenal and to Tottenham with his usual approach to top teams  - 'see if you can break us down' - an approach that has had some success in the past. This stretch has the potential for 3+ CSs and some goals.  Everton don't have the firepower to blow teams away and no one looks like scoring 12-14 goals this year on this team, but this is the sort of stretch where at least 1 Everton player seems a must.  Head of the list, though his price makes me choke, is Leighton Baines.  Even 2 clean sheets in this stretch plus his goal/assist/BP threat (on pens and LF free kicks), and with 6% ownership, means you have a differential who could pull you out of your minileague midtable doldrums.  The other names that jump out at you are all a bit of a gamble:  Howard rotates really well with Vorm over the near term but is pricey for a GK; Hibbert is the cheapest way into the defense but hovers just above that 4.5 'budget' label.  Jagielka is the safe option here but comes at a price premium for a team who so far haven't kept a lot of CSs.  But, for a 6 week flyer, maybe. 
In attacking terms, it's a real crapshoot.  Cahill looks to be playing himself into shape and made a nice assist on Saturday;  Drenthe looked like he was vying for flavor of the month but has been dropped twice since his 16 FF point game against Fulham a few weeks back; Osman gets starts but rarely seems to get more than 2 points for turning up.  The one name I like here is injured: Jack Rodwell @ 5.3.  Nailed on for starts and with 2 goals so far, he seems like a cheap, easy in.  I am not planning to do the surgery necessary for Baines, so I may wait til GW16 for an Everton player but I don't think you can look past the schedule with a team that has a very good record against lesser teams this year.

3.  Chelsea.  The big name, big budget forwards are crapping all over their reputations  but Chelsea sit 3rd in the league in goals scored and have 2 recent clean sheets.  I think you've got to think in terms of at least 1 attacking Chelsea player in a team that scores like they do.  Sturridge has been inconsistent in terms of FF points from week to week but not in terms of goal scoring  - 6 goals in 10 games, he missed the first 3 through suspension. He is Chelsea's highest scoring forward and tied with Lampard for leading goal scorer on this team.  Mata had a big week this week and has been pretty steady since joining Chelsea.  Nailed on for starts too.  I think, like David Silva, he is only going to get better in this league.  Despite his rotation risk, I wouldn't drop Lampard if I had him; massive differential right now (5% ownership) for a guy who has averaged 198 points a year for the last 5 years.  AVB has rotated him out twice this year, but even at 2400/2500 min this year, Lampard looks likes a 175 point guy.  If you don't have the budget for Mata or Lampard, Ramires doesn't look bad value given the dearth of value in the midfield midprice range.  Appears nailed on for starts, and only Larsson, Sessegnon, Sinclair and Walters are scoring more for guys in his price range who start every week.
I also think you have to start thinking about either Ivanovic or Luiz (2 starts in a row, 6.3), as it looks like AVB's preferred back 4 is Ivanovic, Luiz, Terry, A.Cole.  Chelsea's defense has not been up to its usual standards but they have 2 CS in the last 3 games and have a bazillion games where they conceded just once - they may not be far off a CS run.

4.  Swansea.  Another home clean sheet in a game perhaps played at a subdued level after news of Gary Speed's apparent suicide.  Michel Vorm is in well over a 1/4 of FF teams, but it sure doesn't look like doubling down when Swansea are home is the worst call.  In addition to Vorm, I have gambled on team captain Monk @ 4.0 and 13 points between he and Vorm helped assuage the pain of  another Woodgate MIA.

5.  Aston Villa have 4 clean sheets (2 home, 2 away) but are in with a whole host of teams which have conceded 15-17 goals this year, very mediocre.  I expected McLeish to have Villa at or near the top in goals conceded rankings this year.  Not so much.  Still 4 clean sheets is nothing to sneeze at.  But . . . Villa's schedule is perhaps the worst in the EPL over the next 6 and as a Stephen Warnock owner, priced above budget - but with some offensive potential, I have a decision to make; bench him (and his 5.1 price tag) until GW20 (SWN), gamble that McLeish will pull a ZERO out of the hat against 1 of MNU, LIV, or ARS - or sell him on for a more budget friendly rotatable defender. The 20% of teams with Shay Given have the same decision to make, although Given is probably in line for a shed load of save points.

6.  I was wondering how Man City's goals per game (3.5 gpg through GW12) would come down and I guess it will be the odd game against a really solid defense like Liverpool's (best GA in the league along with MNC and NWC).  Aguero looked human for the first time in a while, and while the combustible Balotelli insured Man City would defend for the final 10 minutes, Man City were on the back foot for most of the second half.  I still think Silva (must own) + 1 from Richards, Kompany, Aguero, Dzeko is a really, really good idea (with Hart, Clichy, Milner, or YaYa Toure decent 2nd player options as well) but I also wonder whether Man City may be headed for a patch of so-so play with the CL disappointment settling in. 
As for Liverpool, tough one.  Enrique (33%) is popular, as he should be in a team conceding only 12 goals so far, but who else ?  As Liverpool's back 4 settles (G.Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Enrique - is Carragher being eased out ala Hyppia ??), I am giving some thought to doubling down on the Liverpool defense, via Skrtel @ 6.0.  In terms of attacking players, I am still a massive fan of Suarez who I think will come good in a big, big way at some point.  Beyond that Charlie Adam @ 8.8 ?  If you can go there price wise, why not Tottenham's Bale ?

7.  Sunderland have a GF/GA differential of 0 which suggests they should be sitting in the top half of the table, if you assume goal differential usually translates to league standing (as my good friend ForzaInter points out to me).  But results have not gone Steve Bruce's way and he is under the kosh.  Bendtner has slipped out of the top 10 FF point getters for forwards <7.0 but Sessegnon and Larsson look very good value for mids in the <7.0 price range.  And Sunderland have an okay 3 CSs, so for 4.5 or 4.3 W.Brown and Michael Turner look decent value, as does their GK, Keiren Westwood @ 4.4.  Decent schedule through GW20 too (ww, BLA, tot, qpr, EVE, MNC, wig).  If Sunderland can win 1 away and 2 home in this stretch they move back to midtable mediocrity where their GD suggests they belong.  I would move Bendtner out for Ba or a number of other options if your model is 2 monster forwards and a cheapie, but the other 5 listed above should generate the points a value option in a mid to top10 team you would expect.

8.  Tottenham roll on.  I have Adebayor who I regarded as a massive value when I bought him at 8.0 and even now at 8.7.  One of the top forwards in EPL a few years ago, he has been in manager purgatory for 2 years.  But with the backing of Redknapp and a steady supply of service, he looks a 16-20 goal scorer to me.  On the basis of VdV's problematic hamstring, I swapped Bale in for VdV this week to save some cash to shore up my defense, but I don't see how anyone looks at Tottenham's schedule through GW20 (a DGW) and doesn't get in 2-3 Tottenham lads.

9.  Finally, Bolton, Blackburn, Wigan, Wolves, all look like it's difficult to find FF options, except the odd spot rotation candidate.  Maybe Eagles, maybe O'Hara, maybe Ward, maybe Hoillet.  With the shining exception of Victor Moses !  Finally the cream rises and Moses comes through with an "assist" (heel was clipped in the box, awarded a pen) and a BP, will Moses lead us to the promised land ?  I can't wait til he comes off my bench for one of my rested starts over the holiday glut and pinches me a double figure.  Then I'll be laughing at all you of little faith  . . . but for those of you looking to jump on the Moses bandwagon, the only team with a worse near term schedule than Villa's is  . . . Wigan's.

Pondering Team Issues

Happy Thanksgiving !  Absolutely my favorite holiday.  A whole day given over to beer, wine, and good food . . . and my beloved Detroit Lions.  Oh well, next year.  I am pretty decent at cooking the holiday turkey and here's the key; 325 oven, breast side down for the first hour (1 1/2 hours for a big one), then flip the bird (to coin an expression) to breast side up for the last 2, 2 1/2 hours.  And use a 1/4 lb butter for basting.  Anyway . . . .

This is a bit self indulgent, but this is a post (edited a bit) I sent to a friend trying to to sort some ideas about my team.  The hardest thing for me as a FF manager is  - patience.  I hate, hate, hate, not using my weekly free transfer even as I see that the best way forward is to hold it for 2 "frees" the following GW.  And I often used to take point hit transfers to "perfect" my team for the current GW. Ouch, how often does that work ?   I've only taken  a single -4 point hit this year, but my lack of patience (WC?, GW7, thank you.) probably explains why, despite obsessive FF focus, I have failed to ever crack the top 1000 and have consistently finished between 33,000 and 72,000 in the world rankings the last 5 years . . .

 Here's my team if you care to play FF fix-my-team manager - I use the slash (/) for players I rotate home away, and parens (  ) for a pure squad guy - this year I have played 3-4-3 almost exclusively -   
Vorm/Schwarzer
Enrique, Simpson/Monk, Warnock/Woodgate
Silva, Nani, VdV, Ramsey, (Moses)
RvP, Adebayor, Sturridge.(0.4 bank)

1.  I have a squad guy (Moses) who starts every game, plays 90 minutes every game, has reasonable underlying stats to support his position as a squad mid, but no end product, unless you count the 2 points you get for putting in a shift.  There are 16 mids priced at <5.2 with more points.  Not all of them start consistently, but you get the idea. 

 

 I have a 6.5 midfielder (Ramsey) who seems the very definition of the assister to the assist guy.  There are 15 mids at <6.7 scoring better than or equal to Ramsey.  None of them have RvP in their sides (um, yes, that's a knock on Ramsey as a FF option).

 

2.  I have 2 defenders who just don't look like pulling their weight; Warnock @ 5.1 and Woodgate @ 4.4.  And I am including Warnock only because he is 5.1.  There are 13 - 13! - defenders priced <5.3 with more FF points.  So, Warnock is simply overpriced.  And has the schedule from hell through the New Year holiday.  Woodgate is another problem.  He's missed 2 matches since I've brought him in and Stoke have lost the plot in defense.  So his value as a 'nailed on' defender in a sturdy home defense is completely gone.  He is deadweight. The only reason he hasn't dropped in price is managers have other priorities and may be hoping against hope (i) he is restored to the starting 11 and (ii) Stoke find the plot. But Woodgate, even if restored this week, looks a risk.

 

3.  All my disposable bank (the higher value players I am willing to drop to pull out cash) + 0.4 in my actual bank, are in VdV and Sturridge.  For reasons that may or may not be obvious, Nani, Silva, RvP, and Adebayor are Stoosher untouchables at this point.  Nani is the obvious question mark, but I am not willing to give up on MNU attacking potential, especially given their upcoming schedule. 

 

The big move I have been contemplating is Bale>>VdV, which pulls out 2.0.  At first blush, Bale/Adebayor seems like plenty of Tottenham coverage through the DGW and beyond.  And, again, first blush, you'd think - well, Bale will be within shouting distance of VdV in FF point total at the end of the day, so here's 2.0 I can comfortably pull out. 

 

Until you look at a comparison of last year.  Last year: VdV - 13G,9A, 165 pts in 2200+ min.; Bale, in his first full season as a mid last year: 7G, 3A, 118 pts in 2400+ min. VdV was worth 47 more points in 200+ fewer minutes.  And since VdV is not being called upon in Europa League, you'd expect his minutes to increase and thereby his value vis-a-vis Bale.  The caveat to last year's numbers are the points total this year and the Opta stats as configured on the Members section of FFS.  And there Bale looks good value, essentially equaling VdV in the various attacking categories - except goals and goal attempts.  The other kicker here is that VdV is actually a greater differential across the game than Bale - VdV owned by 16.9% of managers, Bale 22.2% (probably price related).  So, has Bale 'improved" this year or are the Opta stats skewed by a 4 GW run of form ? 

 

On such conclusions does a FF manager's success hang.

 

The other "bank", if you will, Sturridge, is not much bank unless I am willing to drop to a budget 'squad' forward for my 3rd forward - Morison, Graham, Helguson are the names I would look at, all with good underlying stats per Members/FFS.  The upside to this group of budget forwards (as opposed to Moses so far) is that they have all shown they can score in this league and when called upon by an unexpected rotation or injury to one of my other players, might give me more than 2 points.  All 3 can also be used in rotation with a budget mid too. 

 

The downside of budget forwards is that (i) their teams tend not to score too much (SWN(only Wigan have scored fewer goals), QPR, NOR are all very comfortably in the bottom third of goals in the league) and (ii) when they lose form, they get dropped.  Both Morison and Graham have seen significant bench time and Helguson couldn't get a look-in until 3 other forwards failed or were injured.  The downside to using Sturridge as a bank is that the plan is fairly irrevocable.  It's hard to replace a benched forward in the 4.9 price range without major surgery on your team.  The other issue, simply, is that there are so many high-priced forwards with massive upside that it seems an incredible waste not to use your "squad" position in defense or midfield.

 

The more significant downside I see is I would be giving up Chelsea's second leading goal scorer who is currently priced near budget terms himself.  Remember, Sturridge was suspended and did not play Chelsea's first 3 games. So, it seems counterintuitive to drop Chelsea's second leading scorer until (i) Chelsea drop attacking form (as opposed to defensive form which has been poor; Chelsea are the 3rd highest goal scorers in EPL along with ARS) or (ii) AVB decides to drop Sturridge.  After Torres' and Drogba's failures so far, it seems far more likely Sturridge may be handed a central role than dropped. 

 

4.  If I could find the money, what are my 2 priorities?  This is simple.  No. 1 priority- replace either Warnock/Woodgate with a quality nailed on defender (preferably with some offensive upside) from a 'top 4' (the term 'top 4' is used euphemistically to represent a CL qualifying level defense) side who can consistently deliver CS points and limit my exposure to 1 point defenders.  A starter list  - Richards, Kompany, Jones, (or Luiz (yes, I think CHE are perfectly capable of CS against the EPL riff/raff) if he looks nailed on), slightly pricier  - Vermaelen - even pricier - Evra (MNU only nailed on defender aside from the 7.8 Vidic - some times you have to pay for consistency). The math is not complicated: Richards is on 54 points.  Project that out over 38 games. 

 

I am also looking at Skrtel.  Some might argue that it's foolish to double down on team defense (I have Enrique) but I would argue that it doesn't matter, at the end of the day, if you have 2 defenders with 12+ CS, so long as you are OK that some weeks you'll get 12+ out of those 2 positions but more often 4 points (or less).  At the end of the day, who cares if  your 12+ CS come in bunches or are split amongst players from different teams?

 

Perhaps the most intriguing option for me for a 'top 4' defender is Gael Clichy.  Massive bargain at 5.7.  But, he has been occasionally rotated with Kolarov in the Prem.  But, I watched the Man City v. Napoli CL match . . . Kolarov had a fucking nightmare at Napoli this week.  And if, as it looks, Man City are headed to Europa, and the focus becomes the Premier League title, doesn't it make sense for Mancini to start Clichy in the prem and leave Kolarov's "What, me, defend?" act to Europa and domestic cup competition.  Well, that's what I would do. 

 

My No. 2 priority was . . . Dzeko.  This may seem odd, but Manchester City show no signs of  slowing down and I'm not having trouble seeing them average 2.9/3.0 goals per game this year (current avg. = 3.5 gpg). Failing to have 2 attacking Man City players seems almost criminally negligent.  (A sort of half-position would be to bite on Milner, Adam Johnson, or Toure - even Johnson scores more than Ramsey on a ppm basis.  And given the paucity of demonstratable mid-priced midfield production this year, why not gamble on the odd big week from Milner/Johnson or the steady, consistent points of  YayaToure ?)  But I digress . . .  

 

As to Dzeko . . . if you think that Richards/Kompany will give you 150+ points this year (as I do), and Dzeko continues to be rotated - and constitutes, therefore - really only  2/3 of a player, shouldn't I be thinking the slow but steady accumulation of Richards/Kompany over the sturm und drang of Dzeko ?

 

So you see my difficulty.  VdV and Sturridge seem good value and I am loath to drop them.  But with Warnock not pulling the weight of his price tag and Woodgate now apparently deadweight, and 2 mids not even close to pulling their weight, maybe it's time to . . .

 

 . . . think outside the box and gamble.  And  use . . . Ramsey as my bank ?  Surely RvP is all the Arsenal coverage I need.  That means adding a second budget mid, someone in the 5.0 range to pull the funds necessary to add the 'top 4' defender I am looking for.  Right now, this seems the way forward for my team.  Faurlin, Allen, Gowen, Dyer (I have Vorm/Monk, so a SWN mid seems overkill), B.Johnson, Houlahan (preseason hype, largely forgotten, still has good numbers), Eagles (rotates well with Moses), O'Hara (numbers scream "pick me!" @ 5.7).  Another name in the mix in this price range is Rodwell(2G, 1A).  Currently on a rib injury, Everton have, perhaps, the best schedule through GW20 (a DGW for EVE) in the Prem.

 

My point here is, with Manchester (blue/red), Liverpool and Newcastle goal parsimony, and with forwards like Rooney, RvP, Aguero, Suarez, Adebayor, Hernandez, Dzeko, and even dropping down to mid-price guys like Sturridge, Ba, Bendtner, Zamora, why go bargain basement at forward when you can go bargain basement in midfield with nailed on 90 minute guys with some potential upside ?

 

I am holding my transfer this week, an accomplishment in and of itself, but Stooshers are taking a hard look at another budget mid so as to fit a premium defender in, especially as we get into the holiday fixture glut and those nil-nils seem to add up.

 

 

GW12 observations . . .

1.  Cheap defenders, you get what you pay for.  A few weeks back I jumped in and bought Woodgate.  He's since been benched twice now, and Stoke have apparently lost even home form.  Early on, I went for DeLaet who was shortly thereafter dropped.  A couple of years ago, one of my chief rivals (friendly, despite the fact I can never beat him) came up with a 'rule' (which I named the 'Merritt Rule' in his honor) which runs something like this - your FF team should have 3 defenders/GK (preferably the cheapest ones guaranteed to start) from one of the top 4 sides (as comprised in 2008-9).  Of course, this was back in the day when you could count on Man Utd or Chelsea or Arsenal or Liverpool keeping home CS.  This 'rule' has gone through some thought modifications (especially through the influence of PLF Chris but also through the increase in avg. goals in the EPL and failure of teams to consistently record CS) for me and I have gone to 3 at the back this year with 1 defender from a 'big' team, i.e., Enrique, a 4 other budget guys to rotate home/away.  The problem is budget guys tend (i) to play for teams not keeping CS and (ii) get dropped because they are inherently inconsistent.  As I puzzle through this, I am probably going to look at a modifed 'Merritt Rule' where at least 2 of my defenders are nailed on starters from MNU, MNC, CHE, LIV, and then rotate the third defender position in my 3-4-3.  Richards, who I had early on, looks like the chief candidate, but Jones is tempting too - as is Glen Johnson at 6.8.

2.  Return of the budget bots (forward edition).  Helguson, Klasnic (Gummi, you called it), Morison, Yakubu, Hoilett, Graham, Long - all under 6.0 and all looking like they are worth owning.  A slight step up in price, and there are several more - Ba, Sturridge, Zamora, Bendtner.  Of this rather large group, Ba and Klasnic are in the top 10 of FF points for all forwards and Hoilett is tied for 10th, and Zamora sits just outside the top 10.  Now that we are 12 weeks in, and all these lads have some history to support their purchase, it's probably worth thinking about whether you can get by with 2 high price forwards, one of these 'bots', and use the money to invest in other positions - there seems to be a dearth of quality in midfield but my first thought is investment in a Manchester (red or blue) defender.  Not very sexy, but those CS add up.

3.  SAF is the new Mourinho.  1-0, 1-0, 1-0, ho-hum.  Since the Man City beat down, it looks like there is a new training regimine at Old Trafford, as Man Utd defend in numbers and counter with no more than 4 going forward.  I watched the Swansea game and was surprised at how committed Man Utd seemed to be to shutting down Swansea in the final third.  They rarely countered with more than 4 (Hernandez, Rooney, Nani, Giggs (then Valencia), occasionally Jones).  Perhaps the idea is to remind his charges that you can't lose if the other team doesn't score.  But the implications are clear - Jones, Evra (assuming he's not injured) look like pretty good investments vis-a-vis their high-priced attacking counterparts Nani and Rooney.  I expect a return to good attacking form, now that Hernandez seems fully fit and Ashley Young is ready to return, but Jones looks a steal if he holds his place when Smalling returns.

4.  Home/away rotation can bite you.  I'm a huge believer in home/away rotation with my squad, especially in defense, and so this week I went Vorm (and Monk, don't ask) home v. Man Utd, over Schwarzer @ Sunderland.  Whoops.  Sometimes common sense, something I lack in spades, tells you to put away the auto rotation card, and go with  . . . well common sense.  And common sense tells you that, as good as Swansea have been defensively at home, Man Utd are more likely to score - even if they are playing on the f***ing moon - than Sunderland.  Which brings me to the funniest FF post I have ever seen on the FFS website from a lad named Billy Ketsu -

After long and careful consideration I’ve decided that Brain’s position as manager of my Fantasy Football team is no longer tenable and he will be leaving by mutual consent, to spend more time with his family. From GW 13 he will be replaced by Gut, hitherto assistant coach.

“It’s a results based business we’re in and if you don’t get the points it’s your head on the chopping block,” commented a clearly disappointed Brain after another disappointing score.”I wish Gut all the best. I’m sure he has the qualities to turn the teams’ fortunes around”.

Supporters of Luminous Animals FC had expressed bafflement at some of Brain’s recent signings, including invisible defender Jonathan Woodgate and non-striking striker Nicklas Bendtner. The manager’s continued selection of under-performing Manchester duo Potato and Narnia had also raised eyebrows among the Luminous faithful.

“I don’t want to say that Brain doesn’t know what he’s doing,” commented Kevin Beard, co-chairman of supporters group Luminous Action, ” but he clearly doesn’t know what he’s doing. It’s time for him to go and Gut’s the best replacement. Personally, I blame the chairman. It’s disgrace, to be honest”.

Internet rumours linking the team with Leighton Baines, Adebayor and Aguero have been dismissed by Gut. “I’d love to bring them in but the money’s just not there. How much is that lad at West Brom? Four million? He’ll do for a start”.

That sums it all up doesn't it ?

GW12 observations . . .

As I ready to head Up North (as we say here in Michigan) tomorrow, a few thoughts on a few key games (from a FF perspective) this weekend . . .

Norwich v. Arsenal.  This is the early kick off and while I hate captaining someone from the early  game - much less someone playing away - I brought in RvP this week for Aguero for games like this: a guy with 29 goals in his last 28 games against a newly promoted side without a clean sheet.  Norwich have conceded 7 goals in 5 home games.  So it's RvP as Stoosher captain.  But see my previous post, re: Stoosher captain selections.  I think Walcott is a decent shout for the armband too, if he is your Arsenal cover.  An interesting question is whether to start an Arsenal defender if you've invested there.  If I had Vermaelen or Koscielny, I would give it a go.  This looks a 2-0 Arsenal win to me.

Manchester City v. Newcastle.  With no tv Up North, I'll have to settle for the Sirius radio broadcast but this game will answer several big FF questions, namely, are Man City unstoppable and are Newcastle for real ?  This game starts as difficult a 3-game run (mnc, mnu, CHE) as there is for Newcastle and we FF managers should learn a lot Saturday.  Most FF managers have at least 2 MNC assets and some managers have doubled down on the NWC defense, so some FF teams will have 4+ players involved. My standard captain's selection rule - (i)best midfielder in my side, (ii)playing at home, (iii)against the weakest opposition - suggests I should hand the armband to David Silva. And Silva should be involved, having played only a cameo role in Spain's trip to Costa Rica.  But, I am going with form - RvP - this week. So look for a goal/assist/BPs game from Silva (mordant chuckling).  I think Aguero will start but I think there are question marks over Balotelli and Dzeko starting, especially the latter, who both played 90 minutes twice over the international break.  Mancini has suggested Balotelli should shine in CL and may be saved for MNC's massive CL game this coming week.  Dzeko had 2 tough qualifiers v. Portugal this past week.  We'll learn a lot about Newcastle's so far sturdy defense on Saturday but Simpson is firmly on my bench.  2-1, 3-1 here ?

Sunderland v. Fulham.  As my patience wears thin with Sturridge, and as Sunderland's short term schedule begins to look crazy good (FUL, WIG, ww, BLA), I am thinking Bendtner.  He's scored again for the Danes over the break, he's off to a good start with Sunderland, and I think he's capable of 12-14 goals this year.  While Fulham have not been horrible on the road this year (4 points from 5 games, 6 goals conceded), this is a game you'd expect Sunderland to win with a goal or 2.  The game is also worth thinking about for Sessegnon's remarkable turnaround; Larsson misses out so if there are goals you'd think it will be Bendtner or Sessegnon.  On Fulham's side, I wonder if there is a slight worry about a rest for Clint Dempsey - the American played 180 minutes v. France and Slovenia over the, uh, "break".

WBA v. Bolton.  Well, I'm a fan of Bolton so I would care.  I also wonder whether the team that pounded Stoke will turn up for this one; curiously, Bolton have been better on the road than at the Reebok.  Chris Eagles, Ivan Klasnic, and David Wheater are all on my Watch List too, given a fairly decent run of games through to the New Year.  I am also curious about another Watch List man - WBA's Gareth McAuley (4.0) - and whether he will continue to hold the place he took from Gabriel Tamas when Tamas was injured.  WBA's schedule rotates well with several teams with budget defensive assets.

Wigan v. Blackburn.  I think even at this stage of the season, a relegation 6-pointer.  My interest is that I am one of the few, the proud, the insane, to have hung on to the Preseason's FF Next Big Thing - Victor Moses.  To show my faith, I am benching Aaron Ramsey for Moses.  If Wigan can't score at home v. Blackburn . . .

Swansea v. Manchester United.  Swansea have conceded only 1 goal at home this year and I have Vorm slated for goal.  And my rotation guy with Newcastle's Danny Simpson is Garry Monk, so I am all-in with Swansea.  But . . . I am also starting Nani.  I suspect Rooney will be back in his forward role again.  One thing that will interest me - a lot - is whether Javier Hernandez starts again, as he did last GW.  I thought Hernandez would be a consistent starter this year.  If he starts a second game in a row here, that may suggest a trend at least, and with Man Utd's good near term schedule, he becomes a real option to access Man Utd's offensive points.  I am also interested in another guy on my Watch List - Tom Cleverly.  If healthy again, he should see time here and resume his starting role in the near future and at 5.3, a brilliant price for a Man Utd midfielder.  1-0 to Man Utd ?

Chelsea v. Liverpool.  I suspect Boswinga has lost his place as a regular starter, but this game will be an indication one way or the other; Ivanovic played over the international break while Boswinga did not.  But I suspect AVB will probably stay with the defensive stability of the back 4 that kept a clean sheet (well, it was Blackburn, but still).  Meanwhile, I wonder if the FA charges leveled against Suarez will impact Dalglish's 'wee man'.  I have Sturridge and Enrique so this is another game where my squad is at cross-purposes.  I wonder too, if Torres or Sturridge will get the central striker role.  A consequential game for Sturridge if he is handed the role.

Tottenham v. Aston Villa.  The latest news is that VdV is likely to be fit for this one.  I wouldn't gamble giving him the armband; too much chance he goes 15 minutes and reaches for the hammy.  I have given some thought to captaining Adebayor - he's got a goal or an assist in all but 2 of his starts for Tottenham and I have that crazy prejudice of liking to have my captain start late in the GW.  He played 90 minutes for Togo I understand but I doubt that will impact his starting role here.  Despite McLeish's reputation and a solid back line, Villa have conceded 10 goals in their last 4 games.  Warnock goes to my bench.  Are there 2+ goals in this for Tottenham ?

Best of luck to one and all . . . except my minileague rivals.

A few observations on GW11 . . .

1.  If I make a captain's suggestion, go another direction . . . my captains have 6,2,4,10,4 points the last 5 GWs.  This includes this most recent week when I talked myself out of a 4 point hit to bring in van Persie and captain him.  In turn, I have 4 red arrows in the last 5 weeks.

2.  I have zero sympathy for anyone who brought in de Gea for Man Utd defensive coverage without also bringing in Lindegaard. Ferguson early on said he would rotate Lindegaard in and he has done so once before, in GW7.  If you want Man Utd defensive exposure through the GK position, get both.  Lindegaard is 4.4, a very reasonable price for a squad GK.

3.  Similarly, I have no sympathy for those who brought in J. Evans.  How many times has SAF played a jedi mind game with his lineup ?  You can have no expectation, except for a fit Rooney, Vidic, and Evra, that anyone on Man Utd will start from week to week.  If you went for Evans on the back of Ferguson's comments about Ferdinand, I would keep him.  Evans will probably play his fair share of games, just be prepared for the jedi business.

4.  Jamie O'Hara had his best week of the season.  He was a fantastic squad player for me for the past 2 years but his case represents the sort of dilemma we face in FF.  His excellent FF output in limited on-loan minutes in 2009-10 and 2010-11 suggested this might be a breakout year, given his expected starting role at Wolves as the more attacking of the 2 central Wolves midfielders.  As the season started, I came very close to pairing him with Chris Brunt as the 2 rotate home/away perfectly for the first half season. But after GW8, O'Hara stood on 16 points and had dropped in price to 5.7.   If you had him you might have been excused for bailing out.  But you would have bailed too early.  One telltale sign that he might come good is that, statistically, he still showed well, in terms of shots, key passes, crosses.  I face the same dilemma (as do a dwindling few others) with Victor Moses.  For a midfielder, he's still a leader in shots and shots on frame, and crosses.  At this point, he's purely my squad midfielder (although I will probably start him v. BLA (and sit Ramsey @ NOR), but at what point do you say - 'you know, just not happening for him this year' ?

5.  It's funny how fast 'form' comes and goes.  Between GW6-10 Rafael Van der Vaart  scored 6 goals and looked like scoring every time he shot.  His price rose 0.8.  In GW11 he looked like a Sunday morning pub  player on a hang-over.  Meanwhile Gareth Bale has had 2 'form' games and now all the FF blog sites are full of managers listing Bale as a must-have.  It's tricky deciding when to jump on a band wagon and even trickier when to jump off.  Trickiest of all ?  Picking a bandwagon player before he takes off.

6.  Which brings me to the Robin van Persie bandwagon.  This one left the station several weeks ago while I was still holding my place on the Sergio Aguero bandwagon.  No more.  I jumped on the RvP bandwagon on Saturday to avoid the inevitable 0.2 price rise before the Nov 19 GW12 deadline.  It's a ridiculous gamble given RvP's injury history and with a 2 week international break where any of my top players may sustain an injury.  But such is my frustration having gone 3 weeks now contemplating but not pulling the trigger on a 4 point hit to bring him in that I swooped, breaking a cardinal rule of FF - never transfer early in an international break.  There are 2 consoling thoughts though: (1) the past year is demonstrating that he is fixture proof and unstoppable - with 29 goals in his last 28 games he demonstrates consistency too; and (2) for nearly 3.0M less than Aguero, Edin Dzeko gives you pretty easy access to the Man City front line and he looks a lad that can't stop scoring either. 

7.  That said, Aguero was unlucky not to have 9 FF points as well - he set up Dzeko for what looked a sure goal which the Bosnian missed, and he had a shot clang off the post - 1" to the left and it nestles in the back of the net.  Had Aguero scored and picked up an assist - I had him captained - I probably would not have made the angry manager leap to the RvP bandwagon.  Such is football.

8.  One for the Watchlist: Clint Dempsey.  The American is hiding in plain sight, and while you think, Christ, 8.3 for an American ? - he is quietly going about another strong season which makes 8.3 a decent price.  Hear me out.  In his only season assured of starts last year, he had 168 FF points, with 12 goals, 3 assists, and 23!! bonus points.  In his prior 2 years he had 120 points in 2400 min, and 126 points in 2600 min.  This year, for a team that doesn't score much, he has 3 goals, 3 assists, and 3 bonus points so far, and is tied for 5th highest scoring mid, and 13th highest scoring FF player.  He has had 2 double figure GWs so far.  And he looked Fulham's best player in a losing cause on Sunday to Tottenham where he was unlucky not to have a goal and an assist.  It's time to say it: he's one of the top midfielders in the Prem.  Fulham don't have a brilliant schedule ahead (sun, ars, LIV, swa, BOL, MNU, che), but compared to the steady American, is, say, Nani, or A.Young, or even VdV - worth the extra 1.7+ ?