Another red arrow and another discouraging performance sees my side drop outside the top 8000. Luckily, my minileague rivals have had up and down performances as well and I have maintained a 50+ point lead. My fiercest rival, ForzaInter has moved to 3rd and is within 60 points now, the headlights in the rearview mirror, ominously growing . . . a few notes on the GW.
1. Suarez. I'm not going to comment on the whole handshake controversy as this entire situation has been so badly handled all round - by the FA, by Suarez, by Liverpool, by Dalglish, and post-match celebrating, by Evra himself. From a FF perspective, Suarez reminded us that he can score goals and after the Carling Cup induced blank GW26, Liverpool have ARS, sun, qpr, WIG, nwc, AVL and perhaps a DGW squeezed in there somewhere. Those of us holding Aguero (11.2 for a guy who looks like a good home/away rotation candidate), after BLA, BOL, it may be time to look at a cheaper strike model and Suarez fits that bill.
2. Chelsea, wtf. I looked at this game and thought, 0-1, 0-2 to Chelsea. And so I moved for David Luiz in, Enrique out. Instead of looking to the more solid Tottenham back line and returning Dawson to my team or going for Assou-Ekotto. A bit of a lesson here, in that I think I tend to think in terms of a last year paradigm or let long-term reputation influence my player selection way too often. Chelsea have been such a solid defensive team for years, and so I expect a return to that this year, instead of believing what 24 GWs - not exactly a small sample - have shown; Chelsea are just not that good at the back this year. Move on.
3. I find Roberto Mancini very frustrating. I brought in Gael Clichy in my January window WC because he had started 16/21 games, including 1 self induced benching (red card), and had 7 CS. He has since started the Tottenham game (1 point) and sat the last 2 clean sheets. So, now I have 2 high risk rotation candidates in my back 5 (Clichy, Luiz). You get what you pay for and if you buy the 'budget' guy in an otherwise sturdy defense, you can't expect payoff week in and week out. Dzeko and Nasri owners, I feel your pain.
4. "Patience" as a FF watchword. I often think that if I looked at my team every 2 weeks or so, instead of obsessing every day, I would do a lot better. I'd see the forest, not the trees, and, after all, it's a 38 game schedule, and if I made only long term transfer selections, rather than schedule, form, this week's flavor - selections, I'd be a lot better off. Erm, Luiz this week. I was reminded of this with the performances of Rooney and Adebayor. These 2 have been massive FF performers in the past. Despite their barren spells this year, there was nothing to suggest that they wouldn't return to "form" (A note about "form" - a stupid word which signifies absolutely nothing other than, perhaps a slight uptick in self-confidence. I don't believe in "form" from a FF perspective. Torres isn't suffering from a loss of form, his self-confidence is shot). They sit 3rd and 7th respectively in FF points among all players over 25 GWs. The lesson: players like these will always, always return to "form" i.e., score again, at some point.
5. Blackburn 3 v. QPR 2. I knew there would be goals in this one and last Thursday and Friday, I sent the following emails to my rival ForzaInter about a possible swap I was looking at -
I have been running the numbers at the invaluable FFS/Members area. And I believe I've found an old favorite who is producing very good numbers since the New Year and who can provide me with some cash and yet kick in with goals/assists. He plays for a team who are having no trouble scoring goals this year, although it is a team which may well go down . . .
. . . here comes Friday and more nerves. My mystery midfielder from yesterday was none other than Morten Gamst Pedersen. But after further analysis overnight, I am probably going a different direction. MGP has surprisingly good attacking numbers over the last 6 GWs and with what I think will be a goal fest tomorrow and with a reasonably decent schedule ahead, he seemed a good shout as a rotation candidate . . .
I have a fond place in my heart for Gamst Pedersen because I rode him in the second half of the season a few years ago in his best FF season ever. Ultimately, MGP didn't get on the board, and I used my free for David Luiz (fail). But I think there are plenty of attacking players in these 2 teams worth looking at. Yakubu, obviously, but also David Hoilett who has quietly amassed 73 points, and sits behind, Graham, Holt, Morison, Yakubu, and Fletcher in the under 6.0 category. I wouldn't be surprised, when all is said and done, given that he starts whenever healthy, that he finishes 3rd or 4th in the budget forward category. I think MGP is worth looking at, too, at 6.2. For QPR, Zamora, obviously, but I also wonder about Buzsaky and now, again, after all the preseason hype, and first half of drawing blanks, if Adel Taarabt shouldn't be back in our thinking. Hughes seems to rate him; in the highlight show he looked terrific, and he did get an assist. QPR's schedule looks reasonably good over the near term, with their 2 hard games coming at Loftus Road. The other guy is left back Taye Taiwo - at 4.5, QPR aren't keeping clean sheets but he looks like getting forward every time QPR possess.
6. Everton 2 v. Chelsea 0. Should Everton come back into our thinking after the blank GW26 ? 4 goals conceded in their last 6 games (2 CS v. MNC and CHE at home), suggests a healthy Distin (5.1) or Heitinga (5.2) might be worth thinking about. Hibbert was dropped for Chelsea, but he is 4.6. In attack, while I've never rated him as a FF prospect, Steven Pienaar is 7.0, and Moyes is sure to start him. Perhaps when the DGW is scheduled, he should come into our thinking. Landon Donovan leaves shortly, and - dare I say it - Royston Drenthe might be given that midfield role.
7. Swansea 2 v. Norwich 3. Swansea looks safe from a relegation fight, but from a FF perspective, there has been a sharp drop in defensive returns. Swansea hasn't kept a home CS since GW15. Vorm gets enough 'saves' points - and most of us bought at ~4.0, so would lose substantial value - to justify giving him starts against mid-table/relegation candidate teams, but you wouldn't typically put a SWN defender in your lineup away, which means you haven't got SWN defender CS points since GW15, unless a SWN defender autosubbed in one of those away CS. There was a lot of love for Gylfi Sigurdsson this GW, but Danny Graham looks like the best buy here, at 5.0, he has 10 goals and sits in 7th place among forwards in FF points. Everyone above him is at least 2.8M more expensive. Edin Dzeko's 2 minute cameo kept my rival ForzaInter from getting Danny Graham's points haul auto-subbed. Thank god for small favors.
Norwich is a no go area defensively in terms of FF, although Ruddy as a cheap back up GK option works. Norwich continue to score goals and the likes of Pilkington, Surman, B. Johnson, and Holt look good value.
We've all got 2 weeks now, to assess our sides for the run-in. I may try to step away for a few days and try to see the forest for the trees . . .
Monday, February 13, 2012
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
GW24 Takeaway, pt. 2
1. Liverpool 0 v. Tottenham 0. Neither team covered themselves in glory in this one. Suarez should have won it for the Reds in his 20 minute cameo but - again - couldn't take his chance, consistent with his season so far. With a good goal scoring record at Ajax and with Uruguay at the international level (and not bad last year in the 2nd half of Liverpool's season), it seems crazy to believe he won't begin to bang them in at some point in the Prem. His attacking threat numbers are very good. Strange. At any rate, he remains on my Watchlist after Liverpool's blank GW26.
2. Liverpool record their 10th CS. I had 3 starting defenders who play for teams that kept CS this week and came away with zero points: Kompany, Clichy and . . . Enrique, who missed his first game since joining Liverpool. I've had him all season, fantastic FF value. I'll be keeping him but am starting to think about doubling down on this quality defensive unit (tied for 1st in CS, 2nd in 'goals allowed') - that is, after GW26. The near term schedule GW27-32 is a mixed bag but if you can hold Tottenham, you can hold anybody. And with Johnson/Skrtel/Agger/Enrique nailed on, you can go high end in G.Johnson(6.8) who offers plenty of attacking threat, or reasonably cheap for an elite team defender in Agger(5.9).
3. Tottenham record their 9th CS. I checked out of Dawson last week (for Kompany, ouch) thinking this tough stretch of games was not the time to be invested in a center back who may or may not be first choice. For reasons I cannot explain, I have a near visceral dislike of Assou-Ekotto, but it's probably time to start thinking about BAE or Walker the way we think about Richards or A.Cole. Dawson is 5.2 and is appealing at that price but sat out GW23, with Kaboul and King favored. He returned from injury in GW22 and since has started 2 of 3 games. The report Monday was Kaboul suffered a knock and so Dawson got the nod, but I wonder if Redknapp's preferred CB combo isn't Dawson/King. I've already got rotation risk Clichy, so I need to think hard about whether to dive for Dawson again.
4. Chelsea 3 v. Man Utd 3. The really important thing I take from this game from a FF perspective is the fragility of the Chelsea back line. They've kept only 6 CS this season (although 2 in the last 4 games) and sit about midtable in 'goals allowed' totals. This week's rotation of Clichy has me eyeing up a replacement and I thought about Chelsea's defense but this is a risky proposition unless you want to spend the 7.1 to get in A.Cole (6 assists to go with the 6 CS). I think Cole, Terry and Ivanovic are nailed on if fit (if you look at the season GW history, Ivanovic has only missed games he was injured). The recent red card to Cole and Terry's injury, meant Boswinga and Ivanovic both played the last 2 GWs but absent injury, I expect the Chelsea normal back 4 to be -
Ivanovic/Luiz/Terry/Cole (I think Che bought Cahill not to start - but for cover for injuries and for Prem/FACup/CL fixture congestion, see e.g., Feb 18-25, when they play 3 games in 7 days). Luiz at 6.3 is every bit a gamble, as my conjecture on Cahill was not in conjunction with the Blues' coaching staff (haha), but Chelsea's near-term schedule suggests a CS or 2 - eve/BOL/wba/STK - then mci/TOT - then avl/WIG. Luiz offers plenty of attacking threat to go with potential CS, but at 6.3, I have to be right about Cahill . . .
2. Liverpool record their 10th CS. I had 3 starting defenders who play for teams that kept CS this week and came away with zero points: Kompany, Clichy and . . . Enrique, who missed his first game since joining Liverpool. I've had him all season, fantastic FF value. I'll be keeping him but am starting to think about doubling down on this quality defensive unit (tied for 1st in CS, 2nd in 'goals allowed') - that is, after GW26. The near term schedule GW27-32 is a mixed bag but if you can hold Tottenham, you can hold anybody. And with Johnson/Skrtel/Agger/Enrique nailed on, you can go high end in G.Johnson(6.8) who offers plenty of attacking threat, or reasonably cheap for an elite team defender in Agger(5.9).
3. Tottenham record their 9th CS. I checked out of Dawson last week (for Kompany, ouch) thinking this tough stretch of games was not the time to be invested in a center back who may or may not be first choice. For reasons I cannot explain, I have a near visceral dislike of Assou-Ekotto, but it's probably time to start thinking about BAE or Walker the way we think about Richards or A.Cole. Dawson is 5.2 and is appealing at that price but sat out GW23, with Kaboul and King favored. He returned from injury in GW22 and since has started 2 of 3 games. The report Monday was Kaboul suffered a knock and so Dawson got the nod, but I wonder if Redknapp's preferred CB combo isn't Dawson/King. I've already got rotation risk Clichy, so I need to think hard about whether to dive for Dawson again.
4. Chelsea 3 v. Man Utd 3. The really important thing I take from this game from a FF perspective is the fragility of the Chelsea back line. They've kept only 6 CS this season (although 2 in the last 4 games) and sit about midtable in 'goals allowed' totals. This week's rotation of Clichy has me eyeing up a replacement and I thought about Chelsea's defense but this is a risky proposition unless you want to spend the 7.1 to get in A.Cole (6 assists to go with the 6 CS). I think Cole, Terry and Ivanovic are nailed on if fit (if you look at the season GW history, Ivanovic has only missed games he was injured). The recent red card to Cole and Terry's injury, meant Boswinga and Ivanovic both played the last 2 GWs but absent injury, I expect the Chelsea normal back 4 to be -
Ivanovic/Luiz/Terry/Cole (I think Che bought Cahill not to start - but for cover for injuries and for Prem/FACup/CL fixture congestion, see e.g., Feb 18-25, when they play 3 games in 7 days). Luiz at 6.3 is every bit a gamble, as my conjecture on Cahill was not in conjunction with the Blues' coaching staff (haha), but Chelsea's near-term schedule suggests a CS or 2 - eve/BOL/wba/STK - then mci/TOT - then avl/WIG. Luiz offers plenty of attacking threat to go with potential CS, but at 6.3, I have to be right about Cahill . . .
Monday, February 6, 2012
Takeaway from GW24 wherein we learn decisions taken after midnight are usually bad ones
As I will explore, I was one of those nervous Nellies that checked out of RvP(c). Late. Friday. Night. That decision has me back outside the top 5000, which, really, I fully deserve. Luckily, RvP is still a bit of a differential among some of the challengers in my minileague, so the news was not all bad.
1. Decisions made after midnight Friday, while drinking, usually turn out bad. I took a trip Friday night to my cottage in Michigan's Upper Pennisula. Arrived late and had a few beers. Unfortunately, I then decided to take a last look at FF (worried principally about the weather) and saw the Wenger comments about 'considering' an RvP rest. I immediately logged into my team and switched RvP(c) to Aguero(c). I'd like to say I was fooled and scream outrage at those carrying the info but . . . I was only 60/40 for RvP over Aguero in the first place. I just needed a push or, more accurately, a rationale.
The bigger point to take from this, at least from my perspective is, viewing the league from 'the other side of the pond' has its advantages and its disadvantages. The big disadvantage is that, unlike European managers, I don't have the gameday morning to have a coffee, measure up the latest news, and make a studied opinion on late developments (I could, I guess, if I was willing to get up at 4:30 am on Saturdays . . . ). My team decisions are typically made by 7 pm, EST, Friday night. I might very well have laughed off the Wenger comments had I read them in a Paris cafe Saturday morning. Probably not though.
You can have too much information in this game some times.
2. Luckily, the swap out was not the end of the world. Aguero(c) meant 22+23=45 v. 11+46=57, a 12 point loss. Had I picked, say, Valencia . . . The St. Ignace News would have had a headline such as -
Man leaps from Mackinaw Bridge, Body Not Yet Found in Icy Waters
Cautionary tale: leaves note warning of fantasy football addiction
3. Man City keep another clean sheet, I am soooo glad I doubled down on Man City defenders and left Dempsey on my bench ! Oh, wait. My 2 MNC defenders were Kompany and Clichy. I'm okay with the occasional Clichy rotation at his price (well, maybe not) but Kompany came out of the blue (pun not intended). I picked up Kompany to cover for those CS Clichy missed out on and to double down on the defense I expect to keep the most CS in the run-in. I am going to be rethinking Clichy. My theory was that Mancini would use Kolarov in Europa league and Clichy in the Prem. Perhaps this was a 1-off with Mancini realizing Fulham were coming in to the match with 0.67 gpg away, and no established forward starting, and decided he could risk Kolarov. Anyway, I hope.
Anyway, with Kompany/Clichy on the bench, I get J.Evans(-1) and, of course, Dempsey(2), subbing in. Ouch.
4. Moses makes lineup, scores 2 FF points ! Just as he has on 16 other occasions this year. Sixteen 2-pointers seems almost impossible ! With players like McLean, Surman, Pilkington, Dyer, Sigurdsson (the favorite right now), Dyer, Buzsaky available, my desperate hope that Moses would somehow translate his good attacking numbers into FF points is near an end. Wigan have a decent near-term schedule, so I might, just out of perversity stay with him. But Oxlade-Chamberlain is only 1.0 more . . .
5. Swansea and Norwich keep rolling. I expected these 2 teams to fall off considerably in the second half but that doesn't look like happening. Both have decent near term schedules. Anyone from Vorm, Rangel, Caulker, A.Williams, C.Taylor, Allen, Dyer, Sinclair, Sigurdsson, and Graham (4.8 - 8G/2A/12BP), are worth owning, depending on your needs. Norwich is a slightly more mixed bag but Ruddy (as your budget back up GK), Pilkington, Surman, B.Johnson - all good value as a 5th midfielder, and Holt or Morison as a 3rd forward, all look like they should be in the conversation in their price range.
6. Man Utd keep the goals coming. Reports of Rooney's FF demise were greatly exagerrated. I think Man Utd attacking exposure is de riguer (I have Valencia who had a rare off-day). Man Utd have 59 goals so far, 4 behind leader Man City and 13 more goals than the 3rd highest scoring team, Arsenal. Valencia's nailed-on position in right midfield may bear some risk with Ashley Young back but I am going to live with that for now. Wayne Rooney (from the spot 2x) reminds us that he is still a FF monster. Welbeck/Hernandez are both worth monitoring and if one should emerge, Man Utd have a good run of games beginning in GW28. In defense, despite his nightmare GW, J.Evans price means he's worth owning, in my opinion.
7. Liverpool v Tottenham still to come today. Tottenham are nearly home and dry for CL football next year, and a point this afternoon takes them 7 points clear of Chelsea in 4th. Liverpool can get within 2 points of Chelsea with a win. This is a massive game for Liverpool. For FF purposes, I'm at cross purposes with Bale and Enrique starting for me. As a Liverpool fan, I am hoping for a win; as a FF manager I am hoping further for a CS . . .
1. Decisions made after midnight Friday, while drinking, usually turn out bad. I took a trip Friday night to my cottage in Michigan's Upper Pennisula. Arrived late and had a few beers. Unfortunately, I then decided to take a last look at FF (worried principally about the weather) and saw the Wenger comments about 'considering' an RvP rest. I immediately logged into my team and switched RvP(c) to Aguero(c). I'd like to say I was fooled and scream outrage at those carrying the info but . . . I was only 60/40 for RvP over Aguero in the first place. I just needed a push or, more accurately, a rationale.
The bigger point to take from this, at least from my perspective is, viewing the league from 'the other side of the pond' has its advantages and its disadvantages. The big disadvantage is that, unlike European managers, I don't have the gameday morning to have a coffee, measure up the latest news, and make a studied opinion on late developments (I could, I guess, if I was willing to get up at 4:30 am on Saturdays . . . ). My team decisions are typically made by 7 pm, EST, Friday night. I might very well have laughed off the Wenger comments had I read them in a Paris cafe Saturday morning. Probably not though.
You can have too much information in this game some times.
2. Luckily, the swap out was not the end of the world. Aguero(c) meant 22+23=45 v. 11+46=57, a 12 point loss. Had I picked, say, Valencia . . . The St. Ignace News would have had a headline such as -
Man leaps from Mackinaw Bridge, Body Not Yet Found in Icy Waters
Cautionary tale: leaves note warning of fantasy football addiction
3. Man City keep another clean sheet, I am soooo glad I doubled down on Man City defenders and left Dempsey on my bench ! Oh, wait. My 2 MNC defenders were Kompany and Clichy. I'm okay with the occasional Clichy rotation at his price (well, maybe not) but Kompany came out of the blue (pun not intended). I picked up Kompany to cover for those CS Clichy missed out on and to double down on the defense I expect to keep the most CS in the run-in. I am going to be rethinking Clichy. My theory was that Mancini would use Kolarov in Europa league and Clichy in the Prem. Perhaps this was a 1-off with Mancini realizing Fulham were coming in to the match with 0.67 gpg away, and no established forward starting, and decided he could risk Kolarov. Anyway, I hope.
Anyway, with Kompany/Clichy on the bench, I get J.Evans(-1) and, of course, Dempsey(2), subbing in. Ouch.
4. Moses makes lineup, scores 2 FF points ! Just as he has on 16 other occasions this year. Sixteen 2-pointers seems almost impossible ! With players like McLean, Surman, Pilkington, Dyer, Sigurdsson (the favorite right now), Dyer, Buzsaky available, my desperate hope that Moses would somehow translate his good attacking numbers into FF points is near an end. Wigan have a decent near-term schedule, so I might, just out of perversity stay with him. But Oxlade-Chamberlain is only 1.0 more . . .
5. Swansea and Norwich keep rolling. I expected these 2 teams to fall off considerably in the second half but that doesn't look like happening. Both have decent near term schedules. Anyone from Vorm, Rangel, Caulker, A.Williams, C.Taylor, Allen, Dyer, Sinclair, Sigurdsson, and Graham (4.8 - 8G/2A/12BP), are worth owning, depending on your needs. Norwich is a slightly more mixed bag but Ruddy (as your budget back up GK), Pilkington, Surman, B.Johnson - all good value as a 5th midfielder, and Holt or Morison as a 3rd forward, all look like they should be in the conversation in their price range.
6. Man Utd keep the goals coming. Reports of Rooney's FF demise were greatly exagerrated. I think Man Utd attacking exposure is de riguer (I have Valencia who had a rare off-day). Man Utd have 59 goals so far, 4 behind leader Man City and 13 more goals than the 3rd highest scoring team, Arsenal. Valencia's nailed-on position in right midfield may bear some risk with Ashley Young back but I am going to live with that for now. Wayne Rooney (from the spot 2x) reminds us that he is still a FF monster. Welbeck/Hernandez are both worth monitoring and if one should emerge, Man Utd have a good run of games beginning in GW28. In defense, despite his nightmare GW, J.Evans price means he's worth owning, in my opinion.
7. Liverpool v Tottenham still to come today. Tottenham are nearly home and dry for CL football next year, and a point this afternoon takes them 7 points clear of Chelsea in 4th. Liverpool can get within 2 points of Chelsea with a win. This is a massive game for Liverpool. For FF purposes, I'm at cross purposes with Bale and Enrique starting for me. As a Liverpool fan, I am hoping for a win; as a FF manager I am hoping further for a CS . . .
Thursday, February 2, 2012
The Takeaway from GW23, the transfer window and the short week ahead
A strange GW, the difference between a great week and good week was simply whether you had Bale(c) or RvP(c). Sigh. Unfortunately, I also had 13 points on my bench (Enrique and Williamson) to further frustrate (well, 18 points if I add Moses). Nonetheless, 67 points resulted in a slight world ranking bump inside the 3300 mark and did me no damage in my minileague where a few managers put in 80+ point weeks to charge up the table. A few notes . . .
1. The very tight circle of trust. Almost all active teams now have a midfield which includes at least 4 of: Silva, Bale, Dempsey, Valencia, Sessegnon; includes some variation on RvP/Aguero/budget at forward; includes Vorm or Krul in goal or both; and includes defenders from MNC, NWC, Enrique and/or Assou-Ekotto plus budget guy. Which means this was a good week for most active teams, the only significant differentials being Krul over Vorm (I lucked into a middle position with Mignolet) and captaining Bale. If you are at or near the top of your minileague and your team looks like this, you aren't too worried; if you are trying to make up ground on your minileague leader you are scratching your head trying to figure out under what rocks those differential guys might be hiding.
2. Everton 1 v. Manchester City 0. I watched the replay of this game on FSC and was stunned by the quality of Everton's defending (w/o Jagielka or Distin) and overall play. Fellaini bossed Silva, the back 4 were tight and tidy, and Drenthe and Donovan looked terrific on the counter. The unpronounceably named Argentine guy on top put himself about and looked dangerous throughout. The entire team looked composed in defense and on the ball. Is this the same team we were all running from after their DGW fail ? Drenthe made the goal and looked dangerous every time he touched the ball. Unfortunately, with Pienaar back (who I don't rate at 7.0 as a FF prospect), you wonder if he'll continue in the starting 11. Man City seemed to have one of those days, perhaps less than inspired by Mancini who said after the game he had not prepared the team properly, thinking the game would be 'easy'. Moyes may not have a full cast of international superstars at his disposal, but no game against a Moyes team is ever easy. Still, Aguero and Dzeko had a few chances and Man City dominated possession. As a holder of Aguero, I'm a little worried at three straight 2-pointers. But with FUL, BLA, and BOL visiting in the next 4 GW, it seems prudent to hold.
3. Swansea 1 v. Chelsea 1. This is the game that has convinced me it's time to drop Sturridge. Swansea bossed large portions of this game and Chelsea just look so deliberate and slow in the build up. I remember I had Torres in my team for a couple of weeks early on in the season and as I watched this one I thought 'what was I thinking ?' Chelsea still sit in the 4th CL spot (and 4th in goals scored) but it's hard to see any value in this team right now except perhaps Terry, A.Cole (after his red card suspension) or Ivanovic if their recent defensive solidity holds. You might put Cahill in here too, if he ever gets a start. Despite Boswinga's goal, I think AVB will move Ivanovic to RB; Ivanovic has started virtually every game this season in which he's been fit.
4. The RvP(c) fail. I followed this game on the BBC text and the Dutchman apparently hit the woodwork twice, was thwarted by a Bogdan wonder save on another occasion and laid on 2 balls OC and Ramsey should have finished. The Ramsey miss is nothing new; I had him for a few weeks and saw him play a number of games on TV and he may be the least composed midfielder in front of goal in the EPL.
But the (c) fail (and I have a strong tradition of (c) fails) has got me thinking about a rule I used to follow very consistently until last year - call it the Stoosher Captain Selection Rule (the "SCSR").
And it was this: select (1) your best midfielder who is (2) at home (3) and playing against the weakest opponent.
I got away from it last year with so many forwards hitting on all cylinders (I rode RvP like a rented mule in the second half of the season last year). But the rule has several virtues. First, midfielders always have the potential to get a CS 1 point added on; midfielders typically get more assists than forwards, thus the potential for steady points hauls (think Daivd Silva v. Kun Aguero) and not so much boom and bust potential. Home teams score more - a lot more - than away teams over a season. The other virtue is it takes a lot of guesswork out of the picture, since you normally have only 1 or 2 real options in any given week. Until last year, I actively focused on setting up 2-3 midfielder captain options with a home/away balance so I would always have a good home option. Of course, this was much easier back in the day when Lampard/Gerrard/Ronaldo/Fabregas ruled the earth.
But the frequency with which my captain selections have failed this year (despite having RvP since GW12), has me reconsidering a return to the rule. Under the SCSR, Bale(c) would have been a no-brainer this week. And I could have done a lot worse than a Valencia/Silva, home/away armband rotation over the last 10 GWs. Well, actually, I have done a lot worse.
RvP at home v. Blackburn means and with only Moses at home in my midfield, I'll probably postpone the rule's application this week. But I may make some adjustment to my midfield to ensure a good home option every week.
5. The transfer window. I think QPR's transfer business has been brilliant. I posted in December I thought QPR were going down because I thought Warnock was in over his head in the Prem, but with Hughes in charge and these transfers, I think QPR will rise back to midtable mediocrity. Hughes has revamped QPR's attack and fortified the back line. If you have Helguson, time to sell because unless Cisse (6.5) or Zamora (6.7) get injured, he's only going to get time-wasting cameos, in my opinion. With QPR's near term schedule (WOL, bla, FUL, EVE, bol, LIV), I like either of Cisse or Zamora. I liked Cisse from his time at Liverpool and it's hard to think of a better target guy than Zamora who, in FF terms, provides assists and BPs to make up for his lack of a great goal scoring record. And if Hughes is okay with Taye Taiwo's over-the-top attacking play, he looks a good value at 4.5.
After Everton's play against MNC, I'm intrigued by Nikica Jelavic (6.5), transferred in from Rangers. Historically, he has a good goal scoring record at Rangers, and I doubt Moyes invested heavily (for Everton) to provide him with a seat at Goodison. With Louis Saha gone to Tottenham, and Moyes apparently not convinced by unpronounceably named Argentine guy, Jelavic should go straight in to the starting lineup. Reports are he is 6'2" - and I would guess a few Baines crosses will be aimed at his big ol' Croat head. Everton have a tough near term schedule but they get CHE, TOT, and ARS at home. Man City can attest Moyes's boys are not a pushover at Goodison.
6. As the worm turns. With Sessegnon, Dempsey, Valencia, and Bale all away, and all with very tough away fixtures against teams perfectly capable of keeping clean sheets, I am guessing we won't see a 45 point average (which was probably closer to a 65 point average if you throw out all the ghost ships; of the top 20 teams in my minileague, only 3 had 50 points or less, 12 had 65 points or more and 2 were 80+) this week. Unless RvP gets back on track.
1. The very tight circle of trust. Almost all active teams now have a midfield which includes at least 4 of: Silva, Bale, Dempsey, Valencia, Sessegnon; includes some variation on RvP/Aguero/budget at forward; includes Vorm or Krul in goal or both; and includes defenders from MNC, NWC, Enrique and/or Assou-Ekotto plus budget guy. Which means this was a good week for most active teams, the only significant differentials being Krul over Vorm (I lucked into a middle position with Mignolet) and captaining Bale. If you are at or near the top of your minileague and your team looks like this, you aren't too worried; if you are trying to make up ground on your minileague leader you are scratching your head trying to figure out under what rocks those differential guys might be hiding.
2. Everton 1 v. Manchester City 0. I watched the replay of this game on FSC and was stunned by the quality of Everton's defending (w/o Jagielka or Distin) and overall play. Fellaini bossed Silva, the back 4 were tight and tidy, and Drenthe and Donovan looked terrific on the counter. The unpronounceably named Argentine guy on top put himself about and looked dangerous throughout. The entire team looked composed in defense and on the ball. Is this the same team we were all running from after their DGW fail ? Drenthe made the goal and looked dangerous every time he touched the ball. Unfortunately, with Pienaar back (who I don't rate at 7.0 as a FF prospect), you wonder if he'll continue in the starting 11. Man City seemed to have one of those days, perhaps less than inspired by Mancini who said after the game he had not prepared the team properly, thinking the game would be 'easy'. Moyes may not have a full cast of international superstars at his disposal, but no game against a Moyes team is ever easy. Still, Aguero and Dzeko had a few chances and Man City dominated possession. As a holder of Aguero, I'm a little worried at three straight 2-pointers. But with FUL, BLA, and BOL visiting in the next 4 GW, it seems prudent to hold.
3. Swansea 1 v. Chelsea 1. This is the game that has convinced me it's time to drop Sturridge. Swansea bossed large portions of this game and Chelsea just look so deliberate and slow in the build up. I remember I had Torres in my team for a couple of weeks early on in the season and as I watched this one I thought 'what was I thinking ?' Chelsea still sit in the 4th CL spot (and 4th in goals scored) but it's hard to see any value in this team right now except perhaps Terry, A.Cole (after his red card suspension) or Ivanovic if their recent defensive solidity holds. You might put Cahill in here too, if he ever gets a start. Despite Boswinga's goal, I think AVB will move Ivanovic to RB; Ivanovic has started virtually every game this season in which he's been fit.
4. The RvP(c) fail. I followed this game on the BBC text and the Dutchman apparently hit the woodwork twice, was thwarted by a Bogdan wonder save on another occasion and laid on 2 balls OC and Ramsey should have finished. The Ramsey miss is nothing new; I had him for a few weeks and saw him play a number of games on TV and he may be the least composed midfielder in front of goal in the EPL.
But the (c) fail (and I have a strong tradition of (c) fails) has got me thinking about a rule I used to follow very consistently until last year - call it the Stoosher Captain Selection Rule (the "SCSR").
And it was this: select (1) your best midfielder who is (2) at home (3) and playing against the weakest opponent.
I got away from it last year with so many forwards hitting on all cylinders (I rode RvP like a rented mule in the second half of the season last year). But the rule has several virtues. First, midfielders always have the potential to get a CS 1 point added on; midfielders typically get more assists than forwards, thus the potential for steady points hauls (think Daivd Silva v. Kun Aguero) and not so much boom and bust potential. Home teams score more - a lot more - than away teams over a season. The other virtue is it takes a lot of guesswork out of the picture, since you normally have only 1 or 2 real options in any given week. Until last year, I actively focused on setting up 2-3 midfielder captain options with a home/away balance so I would always have a good home option. Of course, this was much easier back in the day when Lampard/Gerrard/Ronaldo/Fabregas ruled the earth.
But the frequency with which my captain selections have failed this year (despite having RvP since GW12), has me reconsidering a return to the rule. Under the SCSR, Bale(c) would have been a no-brainer this week. And I could have done a lot worse than a Valencia/Silva, home/away armband rotation over the last 10 GWs. Well, actually, I have done a lot worse.
RvP at home v. Blackburn means and with only Moses at home in my midfield, I'll probably postpone the rule's application this week. But I may make some adjustment to my midfield to ensure a good home option every week.
5. The transfer window. I think QPR's transfer business has been brilliant. I posted in December I thought QPR were going down because I thought Warnock was in over his head in the Prem, but with Hughes in charge and these transfers, I think QPR will rise back to midtable mediocrity. Hughes has revamped QPR's attack and fortified the back line. If you have Helguson, time to sell because unless Cisse (6.5) or Zamora (6.7) get injured, he's only going to get time-wasting cameos, in my opinion. With QPR's near term schedule (WOL, bla, FUL, EVE, bol, LIV), I like either of Cisse or Zamora. I liked Cisse from his time at Liverpool and it's hard to think of a better target guy than Zamora who, in FF terms, provides assists and BPs to make up for his lack of a great goal scoring record. And if Hughes is okay with Taye Taiwo's over-the-top attacking play, he looks a good value at 4.5.
After Everton's play against MNC, I'm intrigued by Nikica Jelavic (6.5), transferred in from Rangers. Historically, he has a good goal scoring record at Rangers, and I doubt Moyes invested heavily (for Everton) to provide him with a seat at Goodison. With Louis Saha gone to Tottenham, and Moyes apparently not convinced by unpronounceably named Argentine guy, Jelavic should go straight in to the starting lineup. Reports are he is 6'2" - and I would guess a few Baines crosses will be aimed at his big ol' Croat head. Everton have a tough near term schedule but they get CHE, TOT, and ARS at home. Man City can attest Moyes's boys are not a pushover at Goodison.
6. As the worm turns. With Sessegnon, Dempsey, Valencia, and Bale all away, and all with very tough away fixtures against teams perfectly capable of keeping clean sheets, I am guessing we won't see a 45 point average (which was probably closer to a 65 point average if you throw out all the ghost ships; of the top 20 teams in my minileague, only 3 had 50 points or less, 12 had 65 points or more and 2 were 80+) this week. Unless RvP gets back on track.
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