Last minute captain thoughts

I sent the following note to my friendly rival ForzaInter.  It's a bit like a 3-wood from 220 yards, pond left front, in a 1 down match on the par 5 18th, but here's the thinking -

I am really torn on the armband.  For the reasons I set out on the blog and to you earlier, I think RvP may be as much as 75/25 not to start.  I tell you, if I could be assured this Thierry Henry signing was nailed on in time for Fulham, I would have a fair degree of confidence that RvP would start this GW.  Wenger has flat out said the Shearer record won't come into play (hint, hint: (in French accent, and more politely) 'he won't start as we have to, have to, have to, get a 4th place CL spot and I am a f***-uvalot more concerned about a trip to Craven Cottage in 2 days than with relegation fodder QPR'), but I wonder if he won't give RvP a first half go at it[the record] against QPR.  So, I am gritting my teeth, and hoping; and giving the armband to RvP, at least for the next hour or so while I scour the internet for any further tidbits, speculation or commenter dream interpretations or the reading of entrails.  The other reason for gambling on RvP is . . . I have no confidence Nani is assured of a place (or Sturridge at Chelsea for that matter) against a hopeless BLA side.  So, I have placed the (vc) on Valencia.  Sure, SAF could give a run-out to Rafael, but I think Valencia has (i) better odds of starting/finishing than Nani and (ii) Valencia look Man Utd's form player right now.

 

A bit of context: I transferred in Valencia/McAuley last night for Moses/Kompany to beat their respective 0.1 price increases last night. 

 

See you all on the other side of the New Year . . .

 

 

The Takeaway from GW18, Part 2

Gareth Bale saved my GW, no doubt he saved a fair few others as well, and my 48 points kept me just (barely) inside the top 10,000 and well on top in my minileague.  But, unfortunately, I crashed out of the FF Cup with 16 points sitting on my bench (Friedel (8) and Simpson (8)).  Ouch.  But here's a second helping of my takeaways from the GW:

1.  West Brom were lucky boys.  West Brom kept a CS against the league leaders Man City, who came into the match averaging 3.1 gpg overall and 3.5 gpg away.  I had a chance to see the replay of the game, then the highlights.  Well, you can take all that happy horseshit about "manly defending" and "well-organized" and put it in your pipe and smoke it; they were lucky.  Silva missed 2 chances I would have been upset about missing in an over40 5 v 5; I recall a post coming to Foster's aid, and several gilt-edged chances for Aguero and Balotelli they, well, missed.  God bless Martin O'Neil and the job he has done for Sunderland so far, but he would do well to park the bus and hope in this coming GW.  Man City aren't going to miss all the chances they create every week

In a previous post, I had bigged up a potential move for Valencia by selling Silva.  And I was feeling particularly sorry for myself when I held off on the move and Valencia notched a goal, an assist, a CS point, and 2 BPs.  It would have been a fantastic differential move and would have added 10+ for me this week.  But I am feeling ok about not making the move after I watched Silva's performance - easily could have had 2 goals (and, then, BPs).  In fact, I find it peculiar whenever he doesn't get BPs.  So, as disappointed as I was to "lose" the Valencia points, I am going to hold steady with David Silva and look to squeeze Valencia in somewhere else.

Also, has no one else notice you can get nailed on access to one of the best back 4s in FPL for 5.6 ?  Hint: Kolarov is injured. 

Earlier in the season Edin Dzeko was on my watchlist.  I ultimately opted for Adebayor and Dzeko found starts increasingly difficult to come by.  Lucky me. But I am wondering if another relatively inexpensive way to get access to the Man City attack is Mario Balotelli.  At 8.1 he's in the price range where you need him to start every week and he's not doing that yet, but I wonder if Mancini's man-managment of this guy is beginning to bear fruit.  He's scoring goals at 1 per every 89 minutes - van Persie is on a 1 per every 95 minutes clip.

2.  Rotation worries.  I sent this to my friendly rival ForzaInter recently: As I look at the next GW[19], some difficult decisions are out there.  Will Nani and/or RvP be rested ?  RvP has a game Dec 31 (QPR) and then Jan 2 (ful).  WTF.  On the one hand, he is 2 goals shy of the single calendar year record of Alan Shearer, on the other hand, Arsenal need him a whole lot more at Fulham than home v. QPR.  One would think.  Nani at least has 3 days off after the home game v. BLA on Dec 31- Man Utd play Jan 4 @ NWC.  But these are the 2 games I expect Nani and RvP to sit.  This has big implications for my captain's selection and was/is one of the reasons I would love to squeeze Valencia in this week - while I think Nani or Valencia might be rested in one of the games in the near term, I don't think SAF would dare rest both Nani AND Valencia in the same game.

I think rotation worries should be a concern with Gareth Bale and Emmanuel Adebayor (and the DGW20) too. Tottenham play at Swansea on Saturday Dec. 31.  The Liberty Stadium has been no day in the park for any visitor, so you would expect Bale and Adebayor to play there.  But the front end of the DGW comes 3 days later against West Brom on Tuesday Jan 2.  Will Redknapp be inclined to at least think about resting his so far everpresents there ?   Hmm.

3.  Tight, low scoring games.  Our future for the next 2 GWs ?  1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0.  The results from 7 of the 10 games; 2 of the others were 2-0 clean sheets, and the last was Man Utd's 5-0 tonking of  10-man Wigan.  So, not to shoot the dead horse or anything, but 9 of the 10 games had 2 goals or less, and all games had either 2 goals or less or involved a clean sheet.  That was after only 1 short week.  The next 2 gameweeks take place over a 6 day timeframe (excepting the Tottenham v. Everton, part of their DGW).  I am going to make sure I have defenders that start for their clubs over the next 2 GWs, and I'm not sure it's the worst idea in the world to think about playing a 5-2-3 or 5-3-2, especially in GW20.

4.  I think 2 of the 3 promoted teams are likely to go back down.  The last few years have seen first Hull City, then Burnley, and then Blackpool hang in there and then fade badly in the second half.  West Brom were saved last year through the master raiser of the dead, Roy Hodgson.  Ultimately class and experience begin to show. 

I don't see Blackburn recovering but I saw the Bolton v. Newcastle game and Bolton were the better side for most of the game.  And unlucky to lose.  If they can use the money a sale of Cahill might bring (and, for what it's worth I don't think Bolton will miss Cahill) to get a creative midfielder or another goal scorer to go with Klasnic, they might overcome this disasterous first half.  They've got a murderous schedule to open the New Year, but a win and a draw in the next 2 (WW, eve) takes them out of the relegation zone. 

I've never rated Neil Warnock as a manager at this level and unless QPR spend, well, I don't think Helguson, a guy who couldn't get a look-in until injuries decimated their other options, is the man to lead them to the promised land.  And Taraabt might have been the biggest FF bust since, well, since . . . who was that Wigan Italian forward everyone had for the first game or 2 last year ?

I think Swansea may just survive, but I think they will increasingly be found out; teams will give them possession (they can't score anyway, no matter their possession percentage) and beat them on the counter.  I will be really intrigued to see Tottenham go there this Saturday.  The implication for my team is whether the January window wild card is time to cash in on my Vorm profit.

Norwich have impressed in the way that a really loud, drunk 6'4" guy impresses - crazy, running around, tearing shit up, but sooner or later the police are called and pretty soon the guy looks kind of stupid on the floor in handcuffs.  I think if teams sort out how to handle the thugs Holt and Morison (okay, Morison is slightly less a thug, although he really, really looks a thug), they can sort this team going forward.  And it is a really, really bad sign that in 18 games you have not kept a single clean sheet.  There are some teams that are really hopeless in attack and that you haven't managed to solve them, even once, well good luck with that attack all the time thingy.  As a FF group, it's tough to say who is worth owning here.  I might go Morison if you are working with a '2 elite/1 budget' forward model, but the midfield is a Lambert rotation nightmare.  I might look at Surman, who looks like an actual EPL level winger at 4.4, especially if you need a 4.4 mid that plays to help finance an elite player.

As for Wigan, I love Roberto Martinez and his passion to play good football.  I was impressed with Wigan's 2 draws against Chelsea and Liverpool in a run of games I expected them to get pounded every single game.  Somehow I think his sanity will return; Connor Sammon will be benched, Rodallega (or at least di Santos) will be restored and score often enough for Wigan to escape.  Wigan have a terrific GK, Diame is a formidable holding mid, Moses has a world of potential, but, most importantly, Wigan have been through this relegation stuff before.  Moses and Gomez are worth owning as budget mids here, I think.

5.  I have a hard time believing it, but Tottenham look for real.  Tottenham could have won by 5 or 6 yesterday, and I think the DGW requires any sane FF manager to have 2, better yet 3, Tottenham players in.  Gareth Bale will quickly be approaching Silva/RvP numbers in terms of ownership, and I am shocked to see Adebayor has only 18% ownership; he's scored at least a goal or an assist in 12 of his 15 games with Tottenham.  VdV has not looked sharp in FF terms, although his FF totals overall still look good and his goal threat numbers on FFS/ICT are solid.

One guy I might look at for just the DGW20 only, especially if my budget was really, really tight is Sandro at 4.9.  Again just for the DGW.  He's a holding mid who's started the last 3 games alongside Scott Parker.  He gets forward on occasion.  No matter what, assuming he continues to start, he's going to net you 4-6 points.  For 4.9 you wanted a superstar ?

A lot of managers have brought in Kyle Walker at 5.8 (7.1%) or BAE at 5.3 (7.4%), mostly because of what is referred to as their "attacking threat".  But sometimes we need to remind ourselves that the game is about fantasy football points.  I brought Brad Friedel at 5.5 (4.7%) in 3 GWs ago when Schwarzer was injured as a short term fix through Tottenham's DGW20, fully expecting to WC him out.  Now, I'm not so sure. Brad Friedel's last 3 GWs: 10, 4, 8 points.  This season, FF point totals comparison.

Friedel(5.5) = 75 points
Walker(5.8) = 64 points
BAE (5.3) = 59 points.

If Tottenham can solidy their centerback situation, why can't Friedel, at much less the cost than Hart, Cech or Reina, be expected to keep similar CS numbers ? 

At players priced at 5.5 or under, Friedel is second only to Mikel Vorm in FF points (pauses for a moment for all those who obsessively look for budget defenders, midfielders and forwards with consistent production to look up).  Dude, it's about points.

The Takeaway from GW18, Part 1

From the heights of a meteoric rise, 6 green arrows on the trot, back to reality with a dire 18 points on the week so far.  My FPL Cup match looks nearly lost - and that to an opponent with Begovic in goal, and DeLaet and Ferguson (nwc) on the bench.  My FPL Cup opponent had Hernadez captained, so, aside from seeing my J.Evans move fall to ashes, I had to sweat the full 90 minutes as Man United battered 10-man Wigan.  Luckily Chicharito was not involved in the points.  So, all to play for if I don't want to crash out in the 1st round.  It's up to van Persie:

I have Vorm, Bale, Adebayor, and RvP(c) to play v. my opponent +9 and Begovic(Ruddy to come on), VdV, Bale, Adebayor to play.  If VdV fails to make the game, he's got McAuley's clean sheet haul v. MNC off the bench.  So, Vorm + RvP(c) v. Ruddy + VdV (McAuley) + 9.  A massive, uphill battle, unfortunately.  A Vorm clean sheet, an RvP goal/assist/BP, Tottenham to batter Ruddy, and a brief, fruitless VdV cameo would just about edge it . . . (shoulders drop in acknowledgment of massive, uphill battle).

A few takeaways on yesterday's games:

1.  You put Man United players in your FF side, then pray the teamsheet backs your selections.  More than 1 person in my minileague brought in Rooney for the favorable Man United run and then emptied their gun into the TV yesterday when the teamsheet was announced.  My J.Evans experiment, which looked ever so clever for a couple of GWs, blew up in my face at halftime yesterday.  After talking up a potential Valencia for Silva move in my previous post, I opted not to swap and I felt some vindication in seeing Valencia at left back  - until Valencia picked up a goal and an assist from a position that more resembled a right winger after the Sammon send-off (coyote, legs furiously pumping, now noticing there is no ground underneath him).  3 of Man United's next 5 still look pretty good (BLA, new, BOL, ars, STK), so it's still a good idea to stay invested, but it's hard to figure where to invest; or whether to move out Evans.  SAF apparently has indicated Evans will be out a couple weeks, but I am not sure I ever believe SAF post game.  Only Evra seems nailed on.  Smalling may be worth a punt too, as he can used at CB or RB.  Ferdinand has suggested he may be back.  My best guess at the back 4 over the next few games:  Smalling, Ferdinand (if fit), P.Jones, Evra.  If Ferdinand can't go, look for maybe Smalling to partner Jones and Valencia at RB. 

I may follow through this GW on my Valencia move, just hope it's not chasing last week's points.

2.  Berbatov is back in the FF picture.  Not.  I love watching Dimitar Berbatov play.  I think SAF has completely screwed the guy; he's an absolutely brilliant player and the only thing I can think of is that his training ground efforts are not pleasing to the grumpy old bastard.  Which is probably down to his languid style.  He's Diane Krall, not Janis Joplin.  When all is said and done, Berbatov doesn't fit with Rooney and Rooney is Ferguson's boy.  So, despite his hat-trick, I think there is a great chance he'll be dropped for Saturday's game v. Blackburn.  I think Rooney will return and be partnered with Welbeck or Hernandez.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Berbatov get 1 or 2 more starts in the next 5, so if you are feeling lucky for 8.9, he's the ultimate differential at 1.0% owneship.  I wish to god he'd put in a January transfer request and go to a team where he would start.

3.  Bolton 0 v. Newcastle 2.  2 days ago I ventured the opinion Bolton were staying up after their morale boosting 2-1 win over Blackburn.  I also said I was worried about Newcastle's defending since I hold Danny Simpson.  Do you have to eat crow head and all ? 

Bolton are a disaster well and truly I guess. I can't understand how you can go missing at the Reebok week after week after week.  I also don't understand how there can be rumors of a big money Cahill move to a big club.  Is no one watching this back 4 ?  It's not all Paul Robinson's fault, or Zat Knight's.  Newcastle's clean sheet was reassuring for me as a holder of Simpson even though I didn't start him (he is strictly a rotation guy for me).

4.  Martin O'Neil, top manager.  When Steve Bruce was fired, Sunderland's goal differential was "0", which suggested the team was a bit unlucky with results as opposed to playing horribly.  Martin O'Neil has come in and started to get the results the goal differential suggested was appropriate.  I watched most of the Sunderland v. Everton game and Sunderland have a few boys worth looking at again, namely Wes Brown (4.5), Seb Larrson (6.9) who is owned by 17.5% of managers, and especially Stephane Sessegnon (6.2) who made the goal yesterday and looks reborn playing in behind Nicklas Bendtner (who, himself, looked terrific).  Sessegnon was much hyped preseason, then produced 1 assist in the first 8 GWs (and frankly looked like he couldn't hit the ocean from the dock early on), but he has 75 FF points in just under half a season and he produced 51 FF points in only 1100+ minute last year.  Keiren Westwood at 4.3 looks a decent shout in rotation, especially if O'Neil can tidy up his back 4.  Sunderland should have had a CS but for a massive referee fail on the PK call.  Sunderland's near term schedule is not bad either - MNC, wig, che, SWN, NOR.

5.  Stoke City and West Brom keep clean sheets at home.  Stoke have been inconsistent but have kept a fair number of clean sheets this year (2 early eye-catchers v. Chelsea and Liverpool) and West Brom now have 3 CS at home and 4 overall.  The only reliable defender, in FF terms, at Stoke seems to be Ryan Shawcross at 5.1 (I'm not sold Ryan Shotton (4.0) will hold his RM role).  But West Brom have several budget guys you might think about in rotation with say, Aston Villa or Wolves defenders, who rotate well with WBA - Olsson (4.5, bit of a goal threat), Nicky Shorey (4.5, historically has some assist potential), and Gareth McAuley who has started every game since GW6 (4.0).

Off to monitor Arsenal on the BBC text . . .

The Takeaway from GW17 and a tip or two

Merry Christmas to one and all !   Santa was good to Stooshers with 90 points in GW17, and at 1001 points for the year, I've climbed to 8800+ in the world.  First in my minileague for the first time in at least 2 years, my best world position ever.  How can I f*** this up ?  We'll see. 

A late post on GW17, including a few head's up on tomorrow.

1.  Manchester United have a lot of incredible options and a schedule to boot.  Duh.  Here we go, 4-1 over Wolves, 5-0 over Fulham and a near term schedule which looks like - WIG, BLA, new, BOL. Booyah ! Aside from the obvious Rooney and Nani selections, there are a ton of options.  Best bargain: Jonny Evans.  His price has just risen, so he's not completely under the radar, but Antonio Valencia.  With A.Young injured (according to SAF, but see No. 2), Valencia seems nailed on for 3 starts of the next 4; he's started 4 games in 18 days - so I expect he'll sit one of the 4 ahead.  The only thing holding me back from bringing in Valencia for this minirun is that Valencia doesn't have great FFS/CTI numbers despite a 4 GW run of 3, 12, 8, 6 in his 4 prior starts.  I'll be up a couple more hours thinking about this one.  A lot of folks will be jumping on Welbeck but I am not confident that he'll start more than  1 or 2 of the next 4.  If you look at Hernandez v. Welbeck; Hernandez starts when he is not injured or fatigued.  And it looks like Hernandez is back to fitness.  Anyone across the back 4 that started the last game (Smalling, P.Jones (see No. 2), Evans, Evra) look like a decent short term punt.  And, I'll say this, you could do a lot worse - provided you are willing to pay ~2.0 extra for 2 GK - than the combo of deGea/Lindegaard (10.9).  Lindegaard is a bargain price and hasn't conceded in the Premier League.  Don't just get De Gea, get Lindegaard too.   Carrick and Giggs are decent punts over the short term too.  Carrick looks in form to my eye and Giggs, is, well ,Giggs.  Won't start all of the next 4  but might be worth a chance on another big week at 6.8 if it fits your budget and you can always WC out after GW21.

2.  If you believe anything out of SAF's mouth postgame, I've got a bridge in Arizona I want to sell you.  In reading FF blog commenters, I was laughing hysterically at the number of folks bailing on Phil Jones based on a stray elbow and SAF's post game comments.  The master of the jedi mind game,  I now believe almost just the opposite of everything SAF says relative to the fitness of his players post game.  I mean, if you think about it, Jones took a shot to the jaw.  It's hard to break a jaw.  But I was happy to see tons of FF managers go into sell-off mode (and buy Evans, who I bought at 4.4).  Don't know if Jones will start tomorrow, but I would not be surprised.

3.  Are there Everton players worth owning ?  Short answer: I wouldn't go out of my way.  I gambled on Royston Drenthe last week and he was worth 6 points and looked like he might grab BP points.  I am going to stay through the DGW20 but he has a lot to prove in terms of a long term contract with my side.  Osman had great FFS/CTI numbers and is only 6.7.  There isn't a lot of great value in this range, although I would argue that Walters is probably a better value, given Stoke's near term schedule.  Everton play 4 of their next 5 away, although they do have the DGW20.  I bigged up Baines a few weeks ago, and if I had him, I'd probably hang with him through the DGW20.  Jagielka has ~13% ownership, which seems insane to me, but . . . I wouldn't drop him until after DGW20.  The budget defender here is Hibbert at 4.8.  But, again, 4 of the next 5 Everton games are away.

4.  Newcastle 2 v. WBA 3.  I initially had Evans benched (away to Ful) and had Simpson in, in a game that, earlier in the year, I would have expected Newcastle to be good odds for a clean sheet.  Sanity returned, Evans came in for Simpson just before deadline, and, well, I picked up 6 points.  As a Simpson holder, I'm a little worried about Newcastle's defense. 

This week reminded us all of the force that Peter Odemwingie can be when fit.  WBA play 3 of the next 4 at home - MNC, EVE, tot, NOR - and I rode Odemwingie hard last year, so I tend to think he's a good value ahead.  If you have Ba, you might want to monitor Odemwingie for a sideways pricewise transfer.

5.  I think Wigan and Bolton will survive.  What does that mean for the FF manager ?  Not a lot.  Al-Haibsi, Moses and Gomez for Wigan.  All good rotation guys.  Bolton, not so much.  I think Klasnic is a good budget forward, but since Eagles has been benched, it's hard to see any value here.  G.Cahill is rumored to be off to greener pastures (big teams, apparently, haven't been watching Cahill's performances this year) and he may become a FF value at 5.2, but this is a guy who has 17 FF points in his last 16 games.  He makes Jonathan Woodgate look positively prolific. Maybe at Chelsea or Tottenham and at 5.2 he becomes worth a look in.  If Bolton use the money to get a credible left back or a central midfielder capable of a defense splitting pass, Bolton will be OK.

6.  Thinking about a Valencia for Silva near term gamble, crazy ?  I sent the following post to my minileague friend and rival ForzaInter:

Another bit of info, and who knows since it came out of SAF's mouth, is that A.Young sustained some sort of knee injury and is expected out for 2-3 weeks. Subject to rotation, Nani and Valencia should be close to nailed on for 2-3 weeks with each maybe getting a GW off - but probably not together. More importantly, Nani and Valencia were central to every attacking MUN move.  If there are goals, Nani and Valencia will be involved.

 

Another important point is that Aguero reminds us of the force he is [in the Stoke game].  The thing about Aguero is that he is currently only 0.6 more expensive than Silva, but has more points (108 v103); has more double figure GWs (5 v 4) and, more importantly for armband purposes has 66 points in those 5 double figure GWs (pending BPs this week) v. Silva's 43 in his 4 double figure GWs.  This tells me there is so much more upside to Aguero  - who will almost always get the armband in favorable fixtures (whereas I have been reluctant to go to Silva(c) despite his consistency).

 

MUN schedule for the next 4(6) GWs: WIG, BLA, new, BOL, (ars, STK).

 

MNC schedule for the next 4(6) GWs: wba, sun, LIV, wig, (TOT, eve).  And, as we know, 2 Carling Cup games in that mix, as well as a FA Cup game.

 

Call me crazy, but this all screams Valencia >> Silva for the next 4 GWs (2-3 weeks); after GW20, Tottenham's DGW, Aguero >> Adebayor.  And then re-evaluate with the transfer window WC, with a view to replacing Silva permanently with the steady Yaya Toure after his return from ACN (perhaps once A.Young is back to fitness and threatens Valencia's place again).

 

Late in the evening here in E.S.T., but I am torn on this one.  Dropping Silva leaves me with no attacking MNC coverage.  Valencia has scored well in terms of FF points but not in terms of the EA Sports PPI or FFS/CTI.  But I give up Silva, central to MNC averaging 3.0+ gpg.  The upside is the 2.1 I would grab off Silva makes a Vermaelen or a Clichy or a Skrtel or a P.Jones or a A.Cole available for Monk. 

 

7.  Does the 24 hour push back of the Arsenal game change your RvP play ?  I thought there was a good chance that van Persie might be rested for the Wolves game but with the game pushed back 24 hours, I think RvP is a good bet to start.  So he's my no-brainer captain selection. I am guessing he'll be rested v. QPR 4 days later with Fulham away 3 days after that.

 

The Takeaway from GW16

No sooner is GW16 in the books than we need to think about GW17 and beyond as the fixtures come fast and furious over the next 2 weeks.

1.  Christmas came early in my FF world.  When I went to bed last night, I was hoping for a nice, average score, somewhere in the mid/high50s, given my misfiring captain, Emmanuel Adebayor.  I was hoping to keep pace with others in my minileague and stay in the 30K range world ranking.  Lo and behold, Santa left me a great big, brightly wrapped, blinking green arrow !  Adebayor and my team's latest new boy, Brad Friedel jump on 3 BPs; to go with 3 for Sturridge and Silva, and suddenly a 67 point GW was under the tree !  Saw me move to within 3 points of my minileague leader and just over 22K in the world. 

But this GW was a reminder of how consistently solid David Silva is, both in the real world and in terms of his FF delivery. A goal, his first home goal in a while, and the full 3 BPs (despite Samir Nasri being named the MOM at the game) saw an 11 pointer for the Spaniard his 4th double figure haul this year.

2.  Royston Drenthe can play.   In a 20 minute cameo, he looked easily the best player Everton has in attack.  Although his assist was a bit fortuitous, coming off a scuffed shot, he could easily have had 2 goals but for good saves by Ruddy.  He was full of movement and pace and looked to take on defenders at every opportunity.  I saw him earlier in the year and thought 'meh' - but at 5.9 with a good near term schedule, including DGW20 (SWN, sun, wba, BOL/tot, avl, BLA), he looks a very decent option for a 3 week flyer if he is well and truly over his injury.  Everton's inability to keep CSs really hurts Baines' appeal at 7.8 and Jagielka at 5.4, and with a poor attack, most will be avoiding Everton despite the upcoming DGW.  Drenthe's 20 minute cameo has me reconsidering.

3.  Fingers crossed, Evans looks a steal.  No one knows what's in SAF's mind from week to week in terms of Man Utd's line-up, but for 2 straight GWs the back 4 was Smalling, Evans, Ferdinand, Evra.  With Fletcher and Cleverly out so that Jones looks a midfield fixture, this might be SAF's default back 4.  I suspect SAF would like to settle on a fixed back 4 (as any manager would, I certainly do as a coach). If that's the case, Evans is looking like the second coming of Enrique.

4.  By the way, Liverpool defense.  Skrtel's goal will shed a little light on a pretty well-kept secret, the meanest defense in the EPL.  Liverpool have conceded only 13 goals this year, 1 less than Man Utd and 2 less than Man City.  35% of managers have Enrique but Skrtel and Agger are 6.0/5.9 and Dalglish has opted for these 2 over Carragher (as a Liverpool fan, something I think that's been long, long overdue) and with a very, very good near term schedule (aside from a trip to MNC), is doubling down on Liverpool's defense the worst idea ?

5.  What to do with Suarez ?  Despite his uncanny ability to miss chances, 27.5% of managers have kept faith.  His EA PPI and FFS/ICT numbers look good (nobody creates/takes more shots), and when you watch him you see an all-action figure who creates 3-4 quality chances a week for himself but . . . he doesn't have a single double figure GW all season.  Now the Evra and Fulham finger incidents may result in an enforced layoff but if you have him, even aside from a suspension threat, you have to look at the likes of Ba, Sturridge, Adebayor, or even Yakubu, Morison, Holt or Klasnic, and say I can put the extra cash to some use.

6.  Eyewitness says Bolton are Dead Men Walking.  My good friend Bretto, manager of ForzaInter, is in London for a Christmas holiday (jealous nashing of teeth) and he was at Craven Cottage for the 2-0 Fulham win over Bolton.  He reports that Ruiz, Dembele and, especially Dempsey, were very impressive.  Ive been bigging Clint Dempsey all year and yesterday was his 3rd double figure points haul this season.  He sits tied for 4th in midfield FF points.  Tough near term schedule, but when the schedule clears he's a guy who should be on your Watch List.

Bretto gives a picture of Bolton as listless no-hopers, however.  As a Bolton fan, that's depressing, but as a FF manager I guess the takeaway is, I might want to think about the players in my squad as starters/captain material if Bolton are in the headlights.  I really, really like Owen Coyle as a manager and hope they can win at Blackburn this week which might get Coyle's head off the chopping block.  It's probably down to whether bargain price forward  Ivan Klasnic can continue his form which sees him in the top 10 of forwards for FF points so far this year, despite serving a 3 game ban.

7.  I don't think Vermaelen's 7 goals in 2009-10 were an accident.  Man City were deserved 1-0 winners yesterday, I thought, but Arsenal were within a whisker of tieing it late through a couple of Vermaelen strikes.  Joe Hart had to be sharp on 1 and another was about 6" to the left of the post from being an equalizer.  He's got 3 goals already, and on yesterday's evidence, you wouldn't bet against him doubling that this year.  At 6.9, and Arsenal's good defensive record since he came back from injury, he might be a good transition from Baines or Vidic (if you had the Serb).  With few midfielders in the ~7.0 price range Vermaelen is that 'triple threat' (attacking/CS/BP) defender it's worth looking at if you are willing to add a defender at the cost of a midfielder in your formation.

Plan Ahead

The English press charaterizes it as the 'festive period' of fixtures but it is in reality a real games glut for FF managers and it's better to start thinking about it now, rather than later. Most teams will be playing 6-8 games over a period of 20-24 days (including FA Cup, GW21,(and CC semis for the likes of Liverpool and Man City)); and from this GW16 through the midweek GW20, most teams will have 5 games in 17 days.  So a few suggestions:

1.  GWs come fast and furious.  It's very easy to blow through a GW deadline if you are prepping for a ski trip over the holiday or are stuck on some new gameboy Christmas present.

2. Look at the schedule of any prospective purchase.  Yes, Victor Moses is back from the dead and at 4.6 is a great price for a nailed on starter/90 minute guy/best FF threat in his team but . . . Wigan get started on a brutal run of fixtures beginning this week with Chelsea.  With more than 1/10 of your FF season taking place over the next 3 weeks the last thing you want to do is transfer in a player with several elite teams on his schedule or 3 out of 4 away or something similar. 

If you aren't on any FF websites (or even if you are), especially if you are looking to buy a big ticket midfielder/forward from an elite team, check the team's website for all  of their forthcoming games (FA Cup, Carling Cup, Europa League), not just their EPL schedule.  Especially with the elite teams, the FPL schedule may be complicated with extra FA Cup or Carling Cup games.

3.  I'm not going to do your homework for you.  But let's look at one guy, a guy you probably have since if you are reading this you are probably paying attention and because 46% of managers hold him, David Silva.  Here's his schedule through Jan 11, GW21:

Sun  12/18   ARS (EPL)

Wed 12/21  STK (EPL)

Mon 12/26  wba (EPL)

Sun  1/1       sun  (EPL)

Tues 1/3      LIV (EPL)

Sun  1/8      MUN (FA)

Wed 1/11    LIV (CC)

Mon 1/16   wig (EPL)

 

7 games in 24 days (8 in 28).  Anyone willing to give me odds on Silva sitting, say, 12/21 v. STK or 1/1 @ sun or 1/16 @ wig or all 3 FF GWs?

 

4.  Make sure your squad guys are starters and likely to play.  If you picked Ferguson of NWC 'cause he was dirt cheap or some other guy (hello Leroy Lita) who is dirt cheap but doesn't start regularly or is at best a 10 minute cameo guy, well, when Silva (or any of your other elite players, remember, Wenger and SAF have already promised to rotate their squads over the 'festive period') is rotated out, take your '0' or '1' pointer autosub like a man.

 

5. This is a good week to dump out that guy blinking with a red "i" or yellow "i" on your team.  For the same reason, time to get rid of a player - maybe not a priority before - who is injured and not likely to be available over the 'festive period'.  You may need all 3 squad guys.  Better 4/2 points than play with 9 or 10.

 

6.  Be sure your vice-captain (VC) is very, very likely to play.  It's those weaker games over this glut where we are  likely to see RvP, Aguero, Rooney etc. etc. rested.  Make sure your 'vice' - even if you have to drop down to a guy like Jamie O'Hara or Seb Larrson (not that these guys might not be subject to rotation but are far less likely) - it's often worth it.  I'm not sure even a Michel Vorm at home over this period is the worst pick as a VC.  An elite defender may come into play here too; defenders are far less likely to be rested.

 

7.  Think your captain's decision through if you select an elite option.   Get as much info as you can before you pick your captain.  If Rooney, or RvP, or Aguero have started 2 games in 7 days, and have a weak opponent ahead, you are taking a calculated risk that he won't be rested, and if the side is is in trouble late on, might not come on for 20 minutes w/o prodicing the goods.  Yes, RvP and Dzeko, for instance, have turned cameos into huge games for their FF managers this year, but you may be better off with a midpriced guy playing 90 minutes against a weak opponent.

 

8.  Coupe d'Afrique des nations de football.  I was all set to fire up a new post titled 'Is Silva a Must-Have?' and make the case that you could drop Silva down to Yaya Toure (in the last 10 GWs their points are similar, both have 2 goals, and 1 double figure GW in those 10 GWs, to start with the argument) and create some cash for other investment but I was reminded that Yaya Toure heads for Africa in early January for the African Cup of Nations (ACN).  The lesson here is that if you are bringing someone in for the benefit of their near term schedule, better be sure you know whether they will be shipping out for ACN and when.  I think Demba Ba will outscore Daniel Sturridge (I have Sturridge) over the next 4 GWs, but Sturrridge is staying in London all through January and February and won't be playing 3-6 matches in the summer heat of Libreville. 

 

There is nothing better than having a few days off at the holidays and between the Christmas festivities and New Year's parties watching a ton of games, but you will fall like a stone in your minileague if you lose track of GW deadlines, rotation, and injuries.

 

The Take Away from GW15

With one more massive game to go in the GW, here is what I take away from this past weekend's matches.

1.  Man United's attack has returned.  5 straight single goal league matches left many FF managers wondering if SAF had so committed to defending that the likes of Rooney, Nani, Young, and Hernandez/Welbeck  would provide returns their price tags justify.  When I (improvidently) wildcarded back in GW7, I made the determination that Nani would be my only Man Utd cover and if Rooney kept on with his spectacular run, Nani would be heavily involved, minimizing my losses vis-a-vis those who soldiered on with Rooney.  As the blank weeks mounted for Rooney (and as he was reassigned to the midfield), FF managers abandoned him and his price dropped.  But, as my league leader, the Mighty Gustavonator, never tires of telling me - patience, patience, patience.  Rooney is in a class with RvP (and, I think, Aguero) in terms of FF points scorers.  1 of these 3 is nigh-on essential (2 is even better) I think this year, so I'm not sure why anyone would have abandoned Rooney unless they were bringing in Aguero or RvP.  I have made the determination that Nani is my Man Utd guy and he will be with my side through thick and thin.  Patience.  I might be slightly worried if I held Ashley Young - Valencia was excellent on Saturday, and less well publicized I guess, is that Nani was excellent on the left side in this game.  Will SAF keep that attacking formation and keep Nani on the left ?  The question is enough to make me nervous if I own A.Young.

2. The FF upside and the downside to Vidic's unfortunate injury.  I was really, really disappointed to see Nemanja Vidic's injury in the CL loss, first because he is a fantastic defender I love to watch and second, because I had planned to bring him in next week, following up on my 'triple threat' post last week. His absence means Man Utd are less likely (my quick and dirty analysis based on a the very small sample of this year's games w/without Vidic is 30% less likely to keep CS) to keep clean sheets (query: does Fletcher get his head on the ball for the Wolves' goal if Vidic is playing?).  I moved for Evans on Friday and stressed all Friday and Saturday morning until I saw Evans in the BBC text listing the Man Utd lineup sheet  I think the fact that SAF immediately moved for Evans as Vidic's replacement is a pretty significant statement.  And I thought Evans played well, albeit against an anemic Wolves attack.  If Evans starts, say, 6 of the next 7, he looks a massive, massive value to me - on the order of Enrique at 5.0 joining Liverpool.  Constantly slagged off by Man Utd supporters, I think the Northern Irishman is good enough to help Man Utd to 3-4 CS over the holiday glut of games, given the near term schedule.  Even Smalling looks pretty good at 5.2, although his spot is at some risk when Rafael returns our SAF slides Jones to RB.

3.  Patience is one thing but then there's Ramsey.  When I originally brought him in, it was because he seemed to get in better attacking positions than Arteta.  As the season has worn on Arteta has asserted himself as the dominant attacking option in central midfield for Arsenal and Ramsey has been very much the assist to the assister guy. Meanwhile Ramsey has also missed some pretty easy chances; enough to make me wonder about his composure in front of goal.  Count this as an experiment that failed.  Stooshers will be moving on.

4. You get what you pay for.  When I saw that Vorm had saved Dempsey's penalty, I was ecstatic; I had doubled down on Swansea's defense with Vorm and Monk . . . only to learn Monk was on the bench.  Caulker's return sidelined Swansea's f***ing team captain.  If your f***ing team captain is not nailed on, who is ?  Again, you go for budget defenders, you get what you pay for.  Every time one of your ~4.0 defenders starts, it's a good day - and you should never take it for granted.

5.  Demba Ba makes me wonder if Daniel Sturridge is my best option in this price range. Nuff said.  The Senagalese will be off for ACON, and for my minileague position, it can't come soon enough.

6.  Is the Newcastle defensive dike starting to burst ?  I'm not dropping Danny Simpson now, but you wonder if the loss of S.Taylor and Fabricio (what was mom thinking?) Coloccini will be the end of Newcastle's CS form.  I actually think Coloccini is much more important than S.Taylor and so I'll hold back judgment til he is back for a few games.

7.  Stoke v. Tottenham.  This game demonstrated to me that Tottenham will not challenge Man City, Man Utided  or Chelsea for a top 3 place.  Not enough physicality to match Stoke, whereas all of the above 3 teams can grind with Stoke (and other EPL teams that get 'stuck in' as they say).  That's not to say Tottenham shouldn't have gotten a result but for an Adebayor's onside goal being ruled offside.  The other take away here was  - Adebayor on pens now.  I wonder if there won't be some clarification in the press on this, but I as I watched the game, I assumed I had missed VdV being subbed.  VdV is a terrific FF asset, and his accuracy and shoot-on-sight attitude makes him an elite FF mid, but w/o pens in his locker, Bale's price makes him a lot more attractive option as we steam toward that DGW.

8.  Stephen Fletcher, legend.  I don't know if Mick McCarthy will keep playing 4-4-2, but if he does, and your model is 2 elite forwards and a budget guy, Fletcher is your man.  He has 6 goals to Kevn Doyle's 2 in 500 fewer minutes played.  In 1395 minutes last year, i.e., essentially 15 games, Fletcher scored 10 goals, with 3 assists.  With, I believe, Burnley, in 2009-10 in 2850 min., 8 goals, 5 assists.  Great squad forward - if McCarthy plays him.

9.  Bolton fans, the torture continues.  No, it's worse.  The Reebok used to be a fortress.  It still is but now the gate's open and the guards have taken vacation.  2 goals to Villa, at home . . . are you f***ing kidding me ?  I thought I would see my favorite team outside of Liverpool  prosper under Owen Coyle but it's hard to see a team as shambolic defensively as this team pulling out of the relegation zone.  If only they had a widely sought after international center back to anchor that defense . . . oh, wait. And now, the one bright spot to the season, the guy who was actually providing the team with goals, Ivan Klasnic is stretchered off.  Faithful commenter Gummi will be in despair.

10.  Moses, 13 points.  On my bench.  Victor Moses is down to 4.6 and still has good underlying 'goal threat' stats as shown on the essential Members/FFS site.  And he scored a beauty v. West Brom on Saturday.  And picked up 3 BPs.  And I kept the aforementioned twit Ramsey in my line-up against an Everton team I knew - knew - would bunker up.  The lesson: always, always challenge your assumptions when you set up your starting line-up.  Anyway, now that my man Victor comes into some form, Wigan's schedule becomes the worst in the EPL  over the next 8 games.  I'm staying with him as my squad mid but I'll have to hope for a bit of a miracle to get another return like that when one of my starters is unexpectedly benched.

Haruspicy

Like an ancient Etruscan, I am trying to divine the bargain priced Chris Smalling's future by searching the entrails of today's lineup from the BBC's Live Text -

Man Utd: De Gea, Smalling, Vidic, Ferdinand, Evra, Park, Giggs, Jones, Young, Nani, Rooney. Subs: Lindegaard, Evans, Welbeck, Fletcher, Valencia, Macheda, Gibson.

Does this tell us that this is SAF's favored line-up in a 'must win' (as surely the Wolves encounter this weekend is a must win) and, therefore, Smalling is nailed on as the RB on the weekend ?  Ferdinand has now started a few fair games in a row, so does this tell us that Ferdinand will probably be dropped on the weekend so as not to aggravate his back; therefore one of P.Jones or J.Evans will start at CB v. Wolves, thereby cementing Smalling at RB ?  Does this tell us that Smalling is in danger of benching on the weekend, having got 2 straight starts  - on the theory following P.Jones' recent benching - that SAF is following a '2-3 starts/1 game off' strategy, meaning Smalling is next for the bench ?  Is there some other meaning for Chis Smalling's future that I cannot discern here having no access to a manual of the ancient art ?

My kingdom for a true Etruscan Haruspex . . . ah, the lost arts.

The Takeaway from GW14

ON Friday night/Saturday morning, we drove the 10 1/2 hours to Houghton, Michigan for a long weekend, and so the only game I saw was the Monday Fulham v. Liverpool game, which included the only soccer goal my brother in law has ever seen as he indulged my soccer insanity (hockey rules in Houghton - we watched the Houghton HS Gremlins (!) win the Joe Buck tournament in an unheated hockey arena Saturday afternoon).  Luckily Sirius radio carried the Chelsea early game Saturday, then the Arsenal game.  Sturridge's late goal was met by a huge yell as we skirted Lake Superior on Hwy 28 in light snow and swirling wind.  And as we turned inland at Marquette and headed north, RvP's point haul assured a satisfying drive.  Houghton is the sort of place where 8 inches of snow is met with shrugs and tilts of the head and comments like "light dusting".  When it's followed by 4" the next day, the locals don't even blink.  It has been known to snow for 80 straight days in Houghton.

An 84 point haul - my best in a long, long time, saw me move to 2nd in my minileague and 60,000+ in the world, a massive jump.  This is not to gloat; I'm among the probable 30% + of managers who captained van Persie and had Bale in their team, so not much genius involved.  But let's get to what we can take from the weekend.

1.  Manchested United, 1-0 masters.  Manchester United's scores in their last 5 league games, since the Man City beatdown: 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1 (dubious Ba PK), 1-0.  If you don't have a MUN defender (sheepily raises hand) you better get one because the schedule points to 4-5 more in the next 7 (WOL, qpr, ful, WIG, BLA, nwc, BOL).  The holiday glut and the liklihood that Ferdinand won't play every game, means there may be some chance for Smalling (5.2) to play a bunch of these games; Jones' (6.4 and rising) flexibility means he is good value.  I don't think swapping in de Gea/Lindegaard as your GK combo is the worst call in the world either.  But, as I am about to make the case in Takeaway No. 2, Vidic strikes me as the best value: nailed on and a triple threat(goals/CS/BP). Heck, if Ferdinand is over his back issues, and starts 5 of these games, whose to say those 5 might not all be CS ?  You pay a slight premium for Evra (only 1 great FF season in his history, although, tbf, he's on a 150 point pace).  In short, as your budget permits, at least one MUN defender seems de riguer.

2.  The case for triple threat defenders.  I have found the case for budget defenders you rotate home/away or for favorable fixtures pretty compelling the last 2 years.  My minileague leader, the Mighty Gustavonator, has made this case for years. And FPL Chris has put a numbers crunch to the analysis.  But . . . I think a case is to be made for a subset of defender, one who constitutes a 'triple threat': (i) goal/assist threat; (ii) Clean Sheet threat; (iii) Bonus Point threat - and (iv) a nailed on starter.  The initial point in the analysis is the dirth of midfielders in the midprice range (aside from Bale) who are justifying the price above a high end budget guy like Walters (who started at 6.0) or Murphy. The second point in the analysis is that there are a number of < 8.0, some < 7.0, defenders who offer a 'triple threat' whose history and threat make them pretty good value if you are willing to tinker with your FF team formation.  Based on history, I would suggest the following defenders are worth looking at - Baines, Vidic, Vermaelen, and Terry.  Baines has averaged 3G, 10A the past 2 seasons; 138 and 178 points respectively.  Not as strong a CS prospect as the others, but compare his total historical FF numbers compare pretty favorably to more expensive options like Walcott, Arteta, even Bale.  A terrific schedule through the Vidic, in his 2 seasons with 2900+ minutes has 9 goals.  Vidic is a BP magnet and MUN have a substantial CS history and seem especially committed to keeping it tight at the back since the Man City blow-out.  Vermaelen has a substantial injury history but may constitute the best of this group.  7 goals in his 1 full season (even that was a 30 game season), 3 goals this year since his return from injury; Arsenal have 5 CS this year and a good past history.  John Terry is currently the leading point getter for defenders; Chelsea have a really strong CS history and 3 in their last 4 in the EPL.  Terry has 4 goals already, which is well above his historical average, so maybe it's not fair to expect further goal returns, but there are 24 games left.  There are some 'bargains', if you will, in the triple threat category but who, maybe, lack history or are not quite nailed on just yet as guaranteed starters but who may have substantial upside.  The most obvious is Phil Jones who has seen a substantial price rise; but here are a few others who represent some risk to go with their potential: massive bargain/massive risk candidate: Chris Smalling (5.2).  Back from injury and started at RB in MUN's weekend 1-0 win; grabbed a BP too.  Got forward at RB early in the season before his injury.  Definitely not nailed on with Jones's emergence but those of us with just enough available cash might take a chance . . . . David Luiz (6.3) loves to get forward (2G in 900+ min last year) and seems part of AVB's preferred back 4 (Ivanovic, Luiz, Terry, Cole).  Ivanovic (6.7) - 4G, 5A last year, nailed on now at RB. 2 from Man City - Vincent Kompany, 2G this year, had he been appropriately categorized as a defender last year (and been given 4 points for each of MNC's 18 CS instead of 1), he would have had 149 points last year.  Micah Richards seems nailed on at RB in league (Zabalata has only 1 league start) and has 1G, 5A.  MNC are struggling for CS this year compared to last, and Richards doesn't have a history of starts but go ahead and project out his first third over a full season . . . one more, a bit of a gamble but at 5.9, a good bargain - Dalglish seems to have settled on Skrtel and Agger as first choice CBs; Agger gets forward a fair amount and scored 2 goals in his one 2000+ min season . . . 

3.  The Steady Rollin' Man.  Robert Johnson's classic blues tune fits Clint Dempsey to a tee.  A poacher's goal to kill off Liverpool on Monday gives him 4 goals on the year.  6th in FF midfielder points, 6th in the FFS/ICT index and more shots than any other midfielder.  Danny Murphy has just 3 fewer points @ a 6.2 price, so he's not even the best value in his own team's midfield; and Fulham do not have a good near term schedule (MUN, CHE, and ARS over the holiday glut).  But Dempsey had 168 points last year, and has 65 so far this year, I'll take the bet that he tops last year's number (and Murphy by 20 FF points) if he remains healthy.  Once the Fulham schedule turns favorable, I'll be looking to add the American.

4.  Chelsea.  Corner.  Turned ?  Chelsea are behind only Man City in goals scored and a 3-0 win v. Wolves on the weekend and a 3-0 win in CL tonight.  AVB looks to have settled on Mata, Drogba, Sturridge as his favored front 3; Ramires seems nailed on and occasionally can find the goal at 7.2 (with Ramsey (in particular) and other midpriced options not offering much, a flyer on a midfielder nailed on for a team scoring  2.0+ goals per game, not the worst option).  I tipped Lampard as a potential captain option this past week (and had he finished his Pen, not a bad tip) but AVB clearly has decided that Lampard's age merits occasional rotation (he started tonight's CL game on the bench).  At 11.6, no thanks.  But . . . with Drogba now clearly the favorite for the starting center forward role, and delivering on the weekend and looking unplayable tonight . . . does Drogba come back onto our radar ? 

5.  Why does Mick McCarthy hate Stephen Fletcher ?  All Fletcher did last year was keep Wolves up with 10 goals in 1300+ minutes last year, most in the winter/spring relegation fight; he has 5 goals in 7 starts this year v. Kevin Doyle's 2 in 13 starts.  Yet, Fletcher can't seem to get starts, even when healthy.  Maybe his 2 goal performance Sunday will change McCarthy's mind.  Going 4-4-2 makes Jamie O'Hara less attractive but would certainly put Fletcher - all he f***ing does is score at 5.9 - on the radar. 

It's never too early in the week . .

to begin figuring out how I am going to f***-up the armband selection.  The below is specific to my team, but there is one lad not in my team who I really like, as I'll explain below.  My general rule in picking a captain, up until the second half of last year when I simply rode van Persie like a rented mule, was (i) best midfielder in my team with (ii) a home game against (iii) the weakest opposition.  This fit my team model up until last year too; I typically had 4/5 high-priced/mid-priced midfielders, 1 high-priced forward and 2 budget forwards.  With Rooney's quick start, now RvP in my team, and MNC forwards scoring for fun, and with Nani having gone awol, VdV injured, and Silva often rotated at home v. bottom-feeders, there is no hard and fast rule.  And my team model has changed a bit too. So the analysis below is a bit perfunctory but it's always useful to go through the traps. The analysis for my team:

RvP @ Wigan.  RvP has been blanked twice this year away but has 6 goals and 1 assist away too.  Arsenal have 8 goals in the last 3 fixtures at the DW; Wigan have conceded 11 goals in 6 games at home and the only strong team they faced at home was Tottenham.  'Nuff said.

 

The other options:

 

Adebayor v. Bolton.  In 4 home games this year he has 4 goals and 1 assist.  He's been blanked at home once.  Bolton have conceded 12 goals in 6 away games.  Adebayor is really, really tempting, having scored twice in his last 2 games, and he's at home (I always prefer a home captain).

Bale v. Bolton.  Bale has 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 2 homes games but has been blanked on several occasions at home. Not as tempting as Adebayor but he is up against Steinsson . . .

Silva v. Norwich.  1 goal and 4 assists at home this year, he's tallied in every home game he's started; he's been blanked twice at home - on both occasions he didn't start and was limited to 20+ min cameos.  Silva would be my nailed on captain this week as he is automatic for points at home but . . . I think it's fair to say he may again be rested at home v. a soft oppponent in anticipation of Bayern Munich's visit in midweek in a do-or-die CL match.  Norwich have conceded 11 goals in 6 away games and Silva would surely have a field day, but I can't take the chance of a 20 minute cameo.

Nani @ Villa.  1 assist since September, the player formerly known as Nani would be an automatic consideration.  There may be a breakout game coming, but there isn't much to suggest that.  Villa are tough at home; 6 goals conceded in 6 home games.  I might give serious consideration to the player formerly known as Nani, and will, if he ever turns up again.

Moses v. Arsenal.  The ultimate, let-it-all-hang-out-differentialapalooza gamble.  He earned a PK for an assist last week so he's red-hot (mordant chuckling); Wigan are not prolific at home but have scored 8 goals in 6 home games and have 6 goals in the last 3 visits from Arsenal.  I am starting him ahead of Ramsey (home v. away is my logic, such as it is).  If it was GW36 and I needed a massive differential to make up some ground I might take a flyer, but not before Christmas.

Kompany v. Norwich.  I've brought the big Belgian in early to avoid any rise/fall(Woodgate).  3 clean sheets in 6 home games; 2 goals for the big man so far this year too.  Norwich have only scored 7 goals in 6 away games.  Caveat, Norwich have nicked goals at 2 of the 3 top sides (CHE, LIV) they faced away.

 

The analysis screams RvP and whispers Adebayor.  Unfortunately, I've been wrong more often than right this year.

 

The one guy I don't have that I might take over RvP this week if I had him is Leighton Baines.  I have slowly come around to seeking savings in the back, so Baines is not in my wheelhouse but I'm a little jealous (and fearful) of those who've got him this week.  If I had him, I'd have a big, big dilema on the armband decision.  Owned by only 6% of managers, he's a massive differential.  A goal, an assist, and BPs, in GW12; a clean sheet, and BPs in GW13 and now he faces a Stoke team who've made Sunderland (4-0) and Bolton (5-0) look like world-beaters after playing a midweek Europa League game.  Stoke host Dynamo Kiev tonight.  At least they don't have to travel to the Ukraine.  But Everton v. a leg-weary Stoke says 2-0 all day and you wouldn't bet against Baines being involved in the goals.

 

2 other big-priced guys worth looking at if you have them . . . Aguero, who, obviously, should be a consideration every week if he's in your team (or you can bring him in).  But like Silva, one has to consider the potential for rotation if Mancini decides to go 'all-in' on the CL match in midweek against Bayern Munich in their desperate effort to reach the knockout stages (Man City need a shock result from Villareal v. Napoli).  Dzeko played 90 minutes in the CC win v. Arsenal, but Balotelli served his red card suspension in that game and is available.  The other guy I'd look at if I had him is Frank Lampard.  Yes, at apparent top 4 contenders Newcastle and all that, but Chelsea score goals and this is a serious statement game for Chelsea. And Newcastle's Tiote, the man most likely to monitor Lampard's runs, is still out.  Lampard played in the CC loss to Liverpool, so he may be rested ahead of the CL game next week, but if I had him, I'd be tempted to back the man with 4 double figure FF point hauls this season already.

The Takeaway from GW13

1.  On a personal note, BPs for Monk, Sturridge, and Adebayor, helped me nose across the 60 point mark and move to 5th in my minileague (and nearly 100,000 in the world, woo-hoo!), despite RvP's first bust week in a while.  His 2-pointer raises questions early on about the armband for GW14.  Arsenal @ Wigan seems tailormade for goals but with Adebayor and Bale (Tot v. Bol); and Silva (Man City v. Nor), my preference for home captains might win out.  You also wonder whether Wenger might see a Wigan team near the bottom of the table as an opportunity to rest RvP ahead of the holiday fixture glut.  Probably not away, but the thought has to come into our thinking.

2. I think Everton should be in managers' thinking.  The 2-0 tonking of a 10 man Bolton @ the Reebok, doesn't suggest Everton will go on to start scoring for fun but  . . . look at the schedule through GW20: STK, ars, NOR, SWN, sun, wba, BOL/tot.  4 very winnable home games, and 2 away where you wouldn't expect Everton to have much fear.  And you will expect Moyes to go to Arsenal and to Tottenham with his usual approach to top teams  - 'see if you can break us down' - an approach that has had some success in the past. This stretch has the potential for 3+ CSs and some goals.  Everton don't have the firepower to blow teams away and no one looks like scoring 12-14 goals this year on this team, but this is the sort of stretch where at least 1 Everton player seems a must.  Head of the list, though his price makes me choke, is Leighton Baines.  Even 2 clean sheets in this stretch plus his goal/assist/BP threat (on pens and LF free kicks), and with 6% ownership, means you have a differential who could pull you out of your minileague midtable doldrums.  The other names that jump out at you are all a bit of a gamble:  Howard rotates really well with Vorm over the near term but is pricey for a GK; Hibbert is the cheapest way into the defense but hovers just above that 4.5 'budget' label.  Jagielka is the safe option here but comes at a price premium for a team who so far haven't kept a lot of CSs.  But, for a 6 week flyer, maybe. 
In attacking terms, it's a real crapshoot.  Cahill looks to be playing himself into shape and made a nice assist on Saturday;  Drenthe looked like he was vying for flavor of the month but has been dropped twice since his 16 FF point game against Fulham a few weeks back; Osman gets starts but rarely seems to get more than 2 points for turning up.  The one name I like here is injured: Jack Rodwell @ 5.3.  Nailed on for starts and with 2 goals so far, he seems like a cheap, easy in.  I am not planning to do the surgery necessary for Baines, so I may wait til GW16 for an Everton player but I don't think you can look past the schedule with a team that has a very good record against lesser teams this year.

3.  Chelsea.  The big name, big budget forwards are crapping all over their reputations  but Chelsea sit 3rd in the league in goals scored and have 2 recent clean sheets.  I think you've got to think in terms of at least 1 attacking Chelsea player in a team that scores like they do.  Sturridge has been inconsistent in terms of FF points from week to week but not in terms of goal scoring  - 6 goals in 10 games, he missed the first 3 through suspension. He is Chelsea's highest scoring forward and tied with Lampard for leading goal scorer on this team.  Mata had a big week this week and has been pretty steady since joining Chelsea.  Nailed on for starts too.  I think, like David Silva, he is only going to get better in this league.  Despite his rotation risk, I wouldn't drop Lampard if I had him; massive differential right now (5% ownership) for a guy who has averaged 198 points a year for the last 5 years.  AVB has rotated him out twice this year, but even at 2400/2500 min this year, Lampard looks likes a 175 point guy.  If you don't have the budget for Mata or Lampard, Ramires doesn't look bad value given the dearth of value in the midfield midprice range.  Appears nailed on for starts, and only Larsson, Sessegnon, Sinclair and Walters are scoring more for guys in his price range who start every week.
I also think you have to start thinking about either Ivanovic or Luiz (2 starts in a row, 6.3), as it looks like AVB's preferred back 4 is Ivanovic, Luiz, Terry, A.Cole.  Chelsea's defense has not been up to its usual standards but they have 2 CS in the last 3 games and have a bazillion games where they conceded just once - they may not be far off a CS run.

4.  Swansea.  Another home clean sheet in a game perhaps played at a subdued level after news of Gary Speed's apparent suicide.  Michel Vorm is in well over a 1/4 of FF teams, but it sure doesn't look like doubling down when Swansea are home is the worst call.  In addition to Vorm, I have gambled on team captain Monk @ 4.0 and 13 points between he and Vorm helped assuage the pain of  another Woodgate MIA.

5.  Aston Villa have 4 clean sheets (2 home, 2 away) but are in with a whole host of teams which have conceded 15-17 goals this year, very mediocre.  I expected McLeish to have Villa at or near the top in goals conceded rankings this year.  Not so much.  Still 4 clean sheets is nothing to sneeze at.  But . . . Villa's schedule is perhaps the worst in the EPL over the next 6 and as a Stephen Warnock owner, priced above budget - but with some offensive potential, I have a decision to make; bench him (and his 5.1 price tag) until GW20 (SWN), gamble that McLeish will pull a ZERO out of the hat against 1 of MNU, LIV, or ARS - or sell him on for a more budget friendly rotatable defender. The 20% of teams with Shay Given have the same decision to make, although Given is probably in line for a shed load of save points.

6.  I was wondering how Man City's goals per game (3.5 gpg through GW12) would come down and I guess it will be the odd game against a really solid defense like Liverpool's (best GA in the league along with MNC and NWC).  Aguero looked human for the first time in a while, and while the combustible Balotelli insured Man City would defend for the final 10 minutes, Man City were on the back foot for most of the second half.  I still think Silva (must own) + 1 from Richards, Kompany, Aguero, Dzeko is a really, really good idea (with Hart, Clichy, Milner, or YaYa Toure decent 2nd player options as well) but I also wonder whether Man City may be headed for a patch of so-so play with the CL disappointment settling in. 
As for Liverpool, tough one.  Enrique (33%) is popular, as he should be in a team conceding only 12 goals so far, but who else ?  As Liverpool's back 4 settles (G.Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Enrique - is Carragher being eased out ala Hyppia ??), I am giving some thought to doubling down on the Liverpool defense, via Skrtel @ 6.0.  In terms of attacking players, I am still a massive fan of Suarez who I think will come good in a big, big way at some point.  Beyond that Charlie Adam @ 8.8 ?  If you can go there price wise, why not Tottenham's Bale ?

7.  Sunderland have a GF/GA differential of 0 which suggests they should be sitting in the top half of the table, if you assume goal differential usually translates to league standing (as my good friend ForzaInter points out to me).  But results have not gone Steve Bruce's way and he is under the kosh.  Bendtner has slipped out of the top 10 FF point getters for forwards <7.0 but Sessegnon and Larsson look very good value for mids in the <7.0 price range.  And Sunderland have an okay 3 CSs, so for 4.5 or 4.3 W.Brown and Michael Turner look decent value, as does their GK, Keiren Westwood @ 4.4.  Decent schedule through GW20 too (ww, BLA, tot, qpr, EVE, MNC, wig).  If Sunderland can win 1 away and 2 home in this stretch they move back to midtable mediocrity where their GD suggests they belong.  I would move Bendtner out for Ba or a number of other options if your model is 2 monster forwards and a cheapie, but the other 5 listed above should generate the points a value option in a mid to top10 team you would expect.

8.  Tottenham roll on.  I have Adebayor who I regarded as a massive value when I bought him at 8.0 and even now at 8.7.  One of the top forwards in EPL a few years ago, he has been in manager purgatory for 2 years.  But with the backing of Redknapp and a steady supply of service, he looks a 16-20 goal scorer to me.  On the basis of VdV's problematic hamstring, I swapped Bale in for VdV this week to save some cash to shore up my defense, but I don't see how anyone looks at Tottenham's schedule through GW20 (a DGW) and doesn't get in 2-3 Tottenham lads.

9.  Finally, Bolton, Blackburn, Wigan, Wolves, all look like it's difficult to find FF options, except the odd spot rotation candidate.  Maybe Eagles, maybe O'Hara, maybe Ward, maybe Hoillet.  With the shining exception of Victor Moses !  Finally the cream rises and Moses comes through with an "assist" (heel was clipped in the box, awarded a pen) and a BP, will Moses lead us to the promised land ?  I can't wait til he comes off my bench for one of my rested starts over the holiday glut and pinches me a double figure.  Then I'll be laughing at all you of little faith  . . . but for those of you looking to jump on the Moses bandwagon, the only team with a worse near term schedule than Villa's is  . . . Wigan's.

Pondering Team Issues

Happy Thanksgiving !  Absolutely my favorite holiday.  A whole day given over to beer, wine, and good food . . . and my beloved Detroit Lions.  Oh well, next year.  I am pretty decent at cooking the holiday turkey and here's the key; 325 oven, breast side down for the first hour (1 1/2 hours for a big one), then flip the bird (to coin an expression) to breast side up for the last 2, 2 1/2 hours.  And use a 1/4 lb butter for basting.  Anyway . . . .

This is a bit self indulgent, but this is a post (edited a bit) I sent to a friend trying to to sort some ideas about my team.  The hardest thing for me as a FF manager is  - patience.  I hate, hate, hate, not using my weekly free transfer even as I see that the best way forward is to hold it for 2 "frees" the following GW.  And I often used to take point hit transfers to "perfect" my team for the current GW. Ouch, how often does that work ?   I've only taken  a single -4 point hit this year, but my lack of patience (WC?, GW7, thank you.) probably explains why, despite obsessive FF focus, I have failed to ever crack the top 1000 and have consistently finished between 33,000 and 72,000 in the world rankings the last 5 years . . .

 Here's my team if you care to play FF fix-my-team manager - I use the slash (/) for players I rotate home away, and parens (  ) for a pure squad guy - this year I have played 3-4-3 almost exclusively -   
Vorm/Schwarzer
Enrique, Simpson/Monk, Warnock/Woodgate
Silva, Nani, VdV, Ramsey, (Moses)
RvP, Adebayor, Sturridge.(0.4 bank)

1.  I have a squad guy (Moses) who starts every game, plays 90 minutes every game, has reasonable underlying stats to support his position as a squad mid, but no end product, unless you count the 2 points you get for putting in a shift.  There are 16 mids priced at <5.2 with more points.  Not all of them start consistently, but you get the idea. 

 

 I have a 6.5 midfielder (Ramsey) who seems the very definition of the assister to the assist guy.  There are 15 mids at <6.7 scoring better than or equal to Ramsey.  None of them have RvP in their sides (um, yes, that's a knock on Ramsey as a FF option).

 

2.  I have 2 defenders who just don't look like pulling their weight; Warnock @ 5.1 and Woodgate @ 4.4.  And I am including Warnock only because he is 5.1.  There are 13 - 13! - defenders priced <5.3 with more FF points.  So, Warnock is simply overpriced.  And has the schedule from hell through the New Year holiday.  Woodgate is another problem.  He's missed 2 matches since I've brought him in and Stoke have lost the plot in defense.  So his value as a 'nailed on' defender in a sturdy home defense is completely gone.  He is deadweight. The only reason he hasn't dropped in price is managers have other priorities and may be hoping against hope (i) he is restored to the starting 11 and (ii) Stoke find the plot. But Woodgate, even if restored this week, looks a risk.

 

3.  All my disposable bank (the higher value players I am willing to drop to pull out cash) + 0.4 in my actual bank, are in VdV and Sturridge.  For reasons that may or may not be obvious, Nani, Silva, RvP, and Adebayor are Stoosher untouchables at this point.  Nani is the obvious question mark, but I am not willing to give up on MNU attacking potential, especially given their upcoming schedule. 

 

The big move I have been contemplating is Bale>>VdV, which pulls out 2.0.  At first blush, Bale/Adebayor seems like plenty of Tottenham coverage through the DGW and beyond.  And, again, first blush, you'd think - well, Bale will be within shouting distance of VdV in FF point total at the end of the day, so here's 2.0 I can comfortably pull out. 

 

Until you look at a comparison of last year.  Last year: VdV - 13G,9A, 165 pts in 2200+ min.; Bale, in his first full season as a mid last year: 7G, 3A, 118 pts in 2400+ min. VdV was worth 47 more points in 200+ fewer minutes.  And since VdV is not being called upon in Europa League, you'd expect his minutes to increase and thereby his value vis-a-vis Bale.  The caveat to last year's numbers are the points total this year and the Opta stats as configured on the Members section of FFS.  And there Bale looks good value, essentially equaling VdV in the various attacking categories - except goals and goal attempts.  The other kicker here is that VdV is actually a greater differential across the game than Bale - VdV owned by 16.9% of managers, Bale 22.2% (probably price related).  So, has Bale 'improved" this year or are the Opta stats skewed by a 4 GW run of form ? 

 

On such conclusions does a FF manager's success hang.

 

The other "bank", if you will, Sturridge, is not much bank unless I am willing to drop to a budget 'squad' forward for my 3rd forward - Morison, Graham, Helguson are the names I would look at, all with good underlying stats per Members/FFS.  The upside to this group of budget forwards (as opposed to Moses so far) is that they have all shown they can score in this league and when called upon by an unexpected rotation or injury to one of my other players, might give me more than 2 points.  All 3 can also be used in rotation with a budget mid too. 

 

The downside of budget forwards is that (i) their teams tend not to score too much (SWN(only Wigan have scored fewer goals), QPR, NOR are all very comfortably in the bottom third of goals in the league) and (ii) when they lose form, they get dropped.  Both Morison and Graham have seen significant bench time and Helguson couldn't get a look-in until 3 other forwards failed or were injured.  The downside to using Sturridge as a bank is that the plan is fairly irrevocable.  It's hard to replace a benched forward in the 4.9 price range without major surgery on your team.  The other issue, simply, is that there are so many high-priced forwards with massive upside that it seems an incredible waste not to use your "squad" position in defense or midfield.

 

The more significant downside I see is I would be giving up Chelsea's second leading goal scorer who is currently priced near budget terms himself.  Remember, Sturridge was suspended and did not play Chelsea's first 3 games. So, it seems counterintuitive to drop Chelsea's second leading scorer until (i) Chelsea drop attacking form (as opposed to defensive form which has been poor; Chelsea are the 3rd highest goal scorers in EPL along with ARS) or (ii) AVB decides to drop Sturridge.  After Torres' and Drogba's failures so far, it seems far more likely Sturridge may be handed a central role than dropped. 

 

4.  If I could find the money, what are my 2 priorities?  This is simple.  No. 1 priority- replace either Warnock/Woodgate with a quality nailed on defender (preferably with some offensive upside) from a 'top 4' (the term 'top 4' is used euphemistically to represent a CL qualifying level defense) side who can consistently deliver CS points and limit my exposure to 1 point defenders.  A starter list  - Richards, Kompany, Jones, (or Luiz (yes, I think CHE are perfectly capable of CS against the EPL riff/raff) if he looks nailed on), slightly pricier  - Vermaelen - even pricier - Evra (MNU only nailed on defender aside from the 7.8 Vidic - some times you have to pay for consistency). The math is not complicated: Richards is on 54 points.  Project that out over 38 games. 

 

I am also looking at Skrtel.  Some might argue that it's foolish to double down on team defense (I have Enrique) but I would argue that it doesn't matter, at the end of the day, if you have 2 defenders with 12+ CS, so long as you are OK that some weeks you'll get 12+ out of those 2 positions but more often 4 points (or less).  At the end of the day, who cares if  your 12+ CS come in bunches or are split amongst players from different teams?

 

Perhaps the most intriguing option for me for a 'top 4' defender is Gael Clichy.  Massive bargain at 5.7.  But, he has been occasionally rotated with Kolarov in the Prem.  But, I watched the Man City v. Napoli CL match . . . Kolarov had a fucking nightmare at Napoli this week.  And if, as it looks, Man City are headed to Europa, and the focus becomes the Premier League title, doesn't it make sense for Mancini to start Clichy in the prem and leave Kolarov's "What, me, defend?" act to Europa and domestic cup competition.  Well, that's what I would do. 

 

My No. 2 priority was . . . Dzeko.  This may seem odd, but Manchester City show no signs of  slowing down and I'm not having trouble seeing them average 2.9/3.0 goals per game this year (current avg. = 3.5 gpg). Failing to have 2 attacking Man City players seems almost criminally negligent.  (A sort of half-position would be to bite on Milner, Adam Johnson, or Toure - even Johnson scores more than Ramsey on a ppm basis.  And given the paucity of demonstratable mid-priced midfield production this year, why not gamble on the odd big week from Milner/Johnson or the steady, consistent points of  YayaToure ?)  But I digress . . .  

 

As to Dzeko . . . if you think that Richards/Kompany will give you 150+ points this year (as I do), and Dzeko continues to be rotated - and constitutes, therefore - really only  2/3 of a player, shouldn't I be thinking the slow but steady accumulation of Richards/Kompany over the sturm und drang of Dzeko ?

 

So you see my difficulty.  VdV and Sturridge seem good value and I am loath to drop them.  But with Warnock not pulling the weight of his price tag and Woodgate now apparently deadweight, and 2 mids not even close to pulling their weight, maybe it's time to . . .

 

 . . . think outside the box and gamble.  And  use . . . Ramsey as my bank ?  Surely RvP is all the Arsenal coverage I need.  That means adding a second budget mid, someone in the 5.0 range to pull the funds necessary to add the 'top 4' defender I am looking for.  Right now, this seems the way forward for my team.  Faurlin, Allen, Gowen, Dyer (I have Vorm/Monk, so a SWN mid seems overkill), B.Johnson, Houlahan (preseason hype, largely forgotten, still has good numbers), Eagles (rotates well with Moses), O'Hara (numbers scream "pick me!" @ 5.7).  Another name in the mix in this price range is Rodwell(2G, 1A).  Currently on a rib injury, Everton have, perhaps, the best schedule through GW20 (a DGW for EVE) in the Prem.

 

My point here is, with Manchester (blue/red), Liverpool and Newcastle goal parsimony, and with forwards like Rooney, RvP, Aguero, Suarez, Adebayor, Hernandez, Dzeko, and even dropping down to mid-price guys like Sturridge, Ba, Bendtner, Zamora, why go bargain basement at forward when you can go bargain basement in midfield with nailed on 90 minute guys with some potential upside ?

 

I am holding my transfer this week, an accomplishment in and of itself, but Stooshers are taking a hard look at another budget mid so as to fit a premium defender in, especially as we get into the holiday fixture glut and those nil-nils seem to add up.

 

 

GW12 observations . . .

1.  Cheap defenders, you get what you pay for.  A few weeks back I jumped in and bought Woodgate.  He's since been benched twice now, and Stoke have apparently lost even home form.  Early on, I went for DeLaet who was shortly thereafter dropped.  A couple of years ago, one of my chief rivals (friendly, despite the fact I can never beat him) came up with a 'rule' (which I named the 'Merritt Rule' in his honor) which runs something like this - your FF team should have 3 defenders/GK (preferably the cheapest ones guaranteed to start) from one of the top 4 sides (as comprised in 2008-9).  Of course, this was back in the day when you could count on Man Utd or Chelsea or Arsenal or Liverpool keeping home CS.  This 'rule' has gone through some thought modifications (especially through the influence of PLF Chris but also through the increase in avg. goals in the EPL and failure of teams to consistently record CS) for me and I have gone to 3 at the back this year with 1 defender from a 'big' team, i.e., Enrique, a 4 other budget guys to rotate home/away.  The problem is budget guys tend (i) to play for teams not keeping CS and (ii) get dropped because they are inherently inconsistent.  As I puzzle through this, I am probably going to look at a modifed 'Merritt Rule' where at least 2 of my defenders are nailed on starters from MNU, MNC, CHE, LIV, and then rotate the third defender position in my 3-4-3.  Richards, who I had early on, looks like the chief candidate, but Jones is tempting too - as is Glen Johnson at 6.8.

2.  Return of the budget bots (forward edition).  Helguson, Klasnic (Gummi, you called it), Morison, Yakubu, Hoilett, Graham, Long - all under 6.0 and all looking like they are worth owning.  A slight step up in price, and there are several more - Ba, Sturridge, Zamora, Bendtner.  Of this rather large group, Ba and Klasnic are in the top 10 of FF points for all forwards and Hoilett is tied for 10th, and Zamora sits just outside the top 10.  Now that we are 12 weeks in, and all these lads have some history to support their purchase, it's probably worth thinking about whether you can get by with 2 high price forwards, one of these 'bots', and use the money to invest in other positions - there seems to be a dearth of quality in midfield but my first thought is investment in a Manchester (red or blue) defender.  Not very sexy, but those CS add up.

3.  SAF is the new Mourinho.  1-0, 1-0, 1-0, ho-hum.  Since the Man City beat down, it looks like there is a new training regimine at Old Trafford, as Man Utd defend in numbers and counter with no more than 4 going forward.  I watched the Swansea game and was surprised at how committed Man Utd seemed to be to shutting down Swansea in the final third.  They rarely countered with more than 4 (Hernandez, Rooney, Nani, Giggs (then Valencia), occasionally Jones).  Perhaps the idea is to remind his charges that you can't lose if the other team doesn't score.  But the implications are clear - Jones, Evra (assuming he's not injured) look like pretty good investments vis-a-vis their high-priced attacking counterparts Nani and Rooney.  I expect a return to good attacking form, now that Hernandez seems fully fit and Ashley Young is ready to return, but Jones looks a steal if he holds his place when Smalling returns.

4.  Home/away rotation can bite you.  I'm a huge believer in home/away rotation with my squad, especially in defense, and so this week I went Vorm (and Monk, don't ask) home v. Man Utd, over Schwarzer @ Sunderland.  Whoops.  Sometimes common sense, something I lack in spades, tells you to put away the auto rotation card, and go with  . . . well common sense.  And common sense tells you that, as good as Swansea have been defensively at home, Man Utd are more likely to score - even if they are playing on the f***ing moon - than Sunderland.  Which brings me to the funniest FF post I have ever seen on the FFS website from a lad named Billy Ketsu -

After long and careful consideration I’ve decided that Brain’s position as manager of my Fantasy Football team is no longer tenable and he will be leaving by mutual consent, to spend more time with his family. From GW 13 he will be replaced by Gut, hitherto assistant coach.

“It’s a results based business we’re in and if you don’t get the points it’s your head on the chopping block,” commented a clearly disappointed Brain after another disappointing score.”I wish Gut all the best. I’m sure he has the qualities to turn the teams’ fortunes around”.

Supporters of Luminous Animals FC had expressed bafflement at some of Brain’s recent signings, including invisible defender Jonathan Woodgate and non-striking striker Nicklas Bendtner. The manager’s continued selection of under-performing Manchester duo Potato and Narnia had also raised eyebrows among the Luminous faithful.

“I don’t want to say that Brain doesn’t know what he’s doing,” commented Kevin Beard, co-chairman of supporters group Luminous Action, ” but he clearly doesn’t know what he’s doing. It’s time for him to go and Gut’s the best replacement. Personally, I blame the chairman. It’s disgrace, to be honest”.

Internet rumours linking the team with Leighton Baines, Adebayor and Aguero have been dismissed by Gut. “I’d love to bring them in but the money’s just not there. How much is that lad at West Brom? Four million? He’ll do for a start”.

That sums it all up doesn't it ?

GW12 observations . . .

As I ready to head Up North (as we say here in Michigan) tomorrow, a few thoughts on a few key games (from a FF perspective) this weekend . . .

Norwich v. Arsenal.  This is the early kick off and while I hate captaining someone from the early  game - much less someone playing away - I brought in RvP this week for Aguero for games like this: a guy with 29 goals in his last 28 games against a newly promoted side without a clean sheet.  Norwich have conceded 7 goals in 5 home games.  So it's RvP as Stoosher captain.  But see my previous post, re: Stoosher captain selections.  I think Walcott is a decent shout for the armband too, if he is your Arsenal cover.  An interesting question is whether to start an Arsenal defender if you've invested there.  If I had Vermaelen or Koscielny, I would give it a go.  This looks a 2-0 Arsenal win to me.

Manchester City v. Newcastle.  With no tv Up North, I'll have to settle for the Sirius radio broadcast but this game will answer several big FF questions, namely, are Man City unstoppable and are Newcastle for real ?  This game starts as difficult a 3-game run (mnc, mnu, CHE) as there is for Newcastle and we FF managers should learn a lot Saturday.  Most FF managers have at least 2 MNC assets and some managers have doubled down on the NWC defense, so some FF teams will have 4+ players involved. My standard captain's selection rule - (i)best midfielder in my side, (ii)playing at home, (iii)against the weakest opposition - suggests I should hand the armband to David Silva. And Silva should be involved, having played only a cameo role in Spain's trip to Costa Rica.  But, I am going with form - RvP - this week. So look for a goal/assist/BPs game from Silva (mordant chuckling).  I think Aguero will start but I think there are question marks over Balotelli and Dzeko starting, especially the latter, who both played 90 minutes twice over the international break.  Mancini has suggested Balotelli should shine in CL and may be saved for MNC's massive CL game this coming week.  Dzeko had 2 tough qualifiers v. Portugal this past week.  We'll learn a lot about Newcastle's so far sturdy defense on Saturday but Simpson is firmly on my bench.  2-1, 3-1 here ?

Sunderland v. Fulham.  As my patience wears thin with Sturridge, and as Sunderland's short term schedule begins to look crazy good (FUL, WIG, ww, BLA), I am thinking Bendtner.  He's scored again for the Danes over the break, he's off to a good start with Sunderland, and I think he's capable of 12-14 goals this year.  While Fulham have not been horrible on the road this year (4 points from 5 games, 6 goals conceded), this is a game you'd expect Sunderland to win with a goal or 2.  The game is also worth thinking about for Sessegnon's remarkable turnaround; Larsson misses out so if there are goals you'd think it will be Bendtner or Sessegnon.  On Fulham's side, I wonder if there is a slight worry about a rest for Clint Dempsey - the American played 180 minutes v. France and Slovenia over the, uh, "break".

WBA v. Bolton.  Well, I'm a fan of Bolton so I would care.  I also wonder whether the team that pounded Stoke will turn up for this one; curiously, Bolton have been better on the road than at the Reebok.  Chris Eagles, Ivan Klasnic, and David Wheater are all on my Watch List too, given a fairly decent run of games through to the New Year.  I am also curious about another Watch List man - WBA's Gareth McAuley (4.0) - and whether he will continue to hold the place he took from Gabriel Tamas when Tamas was injured.  WBA's schedule rotates well with several teams with budget defensive assets.

Wigan v. Blackburn.  I think even at this stage of the season, a relegation 6-pointer.  My interest is that I am one of the few, the proud, the insane, to have hung on to the Preseason's FF Next Big Thing - Victor Moses.  To show my faith, I am benching Aaron Ramsey for Moses.  If Wigan can't score at home v. Blackburn . . .

Swansea v. Manchester United.  Swansea have conceded only 1 goal at home this year and I have Vorm slated for goal.  And my rotation guy with Newcastle's Danny Simpson is Garry Monk, so I am all-in with Swansea.  But . . . I am also starting Nani.  I suspect Rooney will be back in his forward role again.  One thing that will interest me - a lot - is whether Javier Hernandez starts again, as he did last GW.  I thought Hernandez would be a consistent starter this year.  If he starts a second game in a row here, that may suggest a trend at least, and with Man Utd's good near term schedule, he becomes a real option to access Man Utd's offensive points.  I am also interested in another guy on my Watch List - Tom Cleverly.  If healthy again, he should see time here and resume his starting role in the near future and at 5.3, a brilliant price for a Man Utd midfielder.  1-0 to Man Utd ?

Chelsea v. Liverpool.  I suspect Boswinga has lost his place as a regular starter, but this game will be an indication one way or the other; Ivanovic played over the international break while Boswinga did not.  But I suspect AVB will probably stay with the defensive stability of the back 4 that kept a clean sheet (well, it was Blackburn, but still).  Meanwhile, I wonder if the FA charges leveled against Suarez will impact Dalglish's 'wee man'.  I have Sturridge and Enrique so this is another game where my squad is at cross-purposes.  I wonder too, if Torres or Sturridge will get the central striker role.  A consequential game for Sturridge if he is handed the role.

Tottenham v. Aston Villa.  The latest news is that VdV is likely to be fit for this one.  I wouldn't gamble giving him the armband; too much chance he goes 15 minutes and reaches for the hammy.  I have given some thought to captaining Adebayor - he's got a goal or an assist in all but 2 of his starts for Tottenham and I have that crazy prejudice of liking to have my captain start late in the GW.  He played 90 minutes for Togo I understand but I doubt that will impact his starting role here.  Despite McLeish's reputation and a solid back line, Villa have conceded 10 goals in their last 4 games.  Warnock goes to my bench.  Are there 2+ goals in this for Tottenham ?

Best of luck to one and all . . . except my minileague rivals.