The Takeaway from GW18, Part 1

From the heights of a meteoric rise, 6 green arrows on the trot, back to reality with a dire 18 points on the week so far.  My FPL Cup match looks nearly lost - and that to an opponent with Begovic in goal, and DeLaet and Ferguson (nwc) on the bench.  My FPL Cup opponent had Hernadez captained, so, aside from seeing my J.Evans move fall to ashes, I had to sweat the full 90 minutes as Man United battered 10-man Wigan.  Luckily Chicharito was not involved in the points.  So, all to play for if I don't want to crash out in the 1st round.  It's up to van Persie:

I have Vorm, Bale, Adebayor, and RvP(c) to play v. my opponent +9 and Begovic(Ruddy to come on), VdV, Bale, Adebayor to play.  If VdV fails to make the game, he's got McAuley's clean sheet haul v. MNC off the bench.  So, Vorm + RvP(c) v. Ruddy + VdV (McAuley) + 9.  A massive, uphill battle, unfortunately.  A Vorm clean sheet, an RvP goal/assist/BP, Tottenham to batter Ruddy, and a brief, fruitless VdV cameo would just about edge it . . . (shoulders drop in acknowledgment of massive, uphill battle).

A few takeaways on yesterday's games:

1.  You put Man United players in your FF side, then pray the teamsheet backs your selections.  More than 1 person in my minileague brought in Rooney for the favorable Man United run and then emptied their gun into the TV yesterday when the teamsheet was announced.  My J.Evans experiment, which looked ever so clever for a couple of GWs, blew up in my face at halftime yesterday.  After talking up a potential Valencia for Silva move in my previous post, I opted not to swap and I felt some vindication in seeing Valencia at left back  - until Valencia picked up a goal and an assist from a position that more resembled a right winger after the Sammon send-off (coyote, legs furiously pumping, now noticing there is no ground underneath him).  3 of Man United's next 5 still look pretty good (BLA, new, BOL, ars, STK), so it's still a good idea to stay invested, but it's hard to figure where to invest; or whether to move out Evans.  SAF apparently has indicated Evans will be out a couple weeks, but I am not sure I ever believe SAF post game.  Only Evra seems nailed on.  Smalling may be worth a punt too, as he can used at CB or RB.  Ferdinand has suggested he may be back.  My best guess at the back 4 over the next few games:  Smalling, Ferdinand (if fit), P.Jones, Evra.  If Ferdinand can't go, look for maybe Smalling to partner Jones and Valencia at RB. 

I may follow through this GW on my Valencia move, just hope it's not chasing last week's points.

2.  Berbatov is back in the FF picture.  Not.  I love watching Dimitar Berbatov play.  I think SAF has completely screwed the guy; he's an absolutely brilliant player and the only thing I can think of is that his training ground efforts are not pleasing to the grumpy old bastard.  Which is probably down to his languid style.  He's Diane Krall, not Janis Joplin.  When all is said and done, Berbatov doesn't fit with Rooney and Rooney is Ferguson's boy.  So, despite his hat-trick, I think there is a great chance he'll be dropped for Saturday's game v. Blackburn.  I think Rooney will return and be partnered with Welbeck or Hernandez.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Berbatov get 1 or 2 more starts in the next 5, so if you are feeling lucky for 8.9, he's the ultimate differential at 1.0% owneship.  I wish to god he'd put in a January transfer request and go to a team where he would start.

3.  Bolton 0 v. Newcastle 2.  2 days ago I ventured the opinion Bolton were staying up after their morale boosting 2-1 win over Blackburn.  I also said I was worried about Newcastle's defending since I hold Danny Simpson.  Do you have to eat crow head and all ? 

Bolton are a disaster well and truly I guess. I can't understand how you can go missing at the Reebok week after week after week.  I also don't understand how there can be rumors of a big money Cahill move to a big club.  Is no one watching this back 4 ?  It's not all Paul Robinson's fault, or Zat Knight's.  Newcastle's clean sheet was reassuring for me as a holder of Simpson even though I didn't start him (he is strictly a rotation guy for me).

4.  Martin O'Neil, top manager.  When Steve Bruce was fired, Sunderland's goal differential was "0", which suggested the team was a bit unlucky with results as opposed to playing horribly.  Martin O'Neil has come in and started to get the results the goal differential suggested was appropriate.  I watched most of the Sunderland v. Everton game and Sunderland have a few boys worth looking at again, namely Wes Brown (4.5), Seb Larrson (6.9) who is owned by 17.5% of managers, and especially Stephane Sessegnon (6.2) who made the goal yesterday and looks reborn playing in behind Nicklas Bendtner (who, himself, looked terrific).  Sessegnon was much hyped preseason, then produced 1 assist in the first 8 GWs (and frankly looked like he couldn't hit the ocean from the dock early on), but he has 75 FF points in just under half a season and he produced 51 FF points in only 1100+ minute last year.  Keiren Westwood at 4.3 looks a decent shout in rotation, especially if O'Neil can tidy up his back 4.  Sunderland should have had a CS but for a massive referee fail on the PK call.  Sunderland's near term schedule is not bad either - MNC, wig, che, SWN, NOR.

5.  Stoke City and West Brom keep clean sheets at home.  Stoke have been inconsistent but have kept a fair number of clean sheets this year (2 early eye-catchers v. Chelsea and Liverpool) and West Brom now have 3 CS at home and 4 overall.  The only reliable defender, in FF terms, at Stoke seems to be Ryan Shawcross at 5.1 (I'm not sold Ryan Shotton (4.0) will hold his RM role).  But West Brom have several budget guys you might think about in rotation with say, Aston Villa or Wolves defenders, who rotate well with WBA - Olsson (4.5, bit of a goal threat), Nicky Shorey (4.5, historically has some assist potential), and Gareth McAuley who has started every game since GW6 (4.0).

Off to monitor Arsenal on the BBC text . . .