The Takeaway from GW23, the transfer window and the short week ahead

A strange GW, the difference between a great week and good week was simply whether you had Bale(c) or RvP(c).  Sigh.  Unfortunately, I also had 13 points on my bench (Enrique and Williamson) to further frustrate (well, 18 points if I add Moses).  Nonetheless, 67 points resulted in a slight world ranking bump inside the 3300 mark and did me no damage in my minileague where a few managers put in 80+ point weeks to charge up the table.  A few notes . . .

1.  The very tight circle of trust.  Almost all active teams now have a midfield which includes at least 4 of: Silva, Bale, Dempsey, Valencia, Sessegnon; includes some variation on RvP/Aguero/budget at forward; includes Vorm or Krul in goal or both; and includes defenders from MNC, NWC, Enrique and/or Assou-Ekotto plus  budget guy.  Which means this was a good week for most active teams, the only significant differentials being Krul over Vorm (I lucked into a middle position with Mignolet) and captaining Bale.  If you are at or near the top of your minileague and your team looks like this, you aren't too worried; if you are trying to make up ground on your minileague leader you are scratching your head trying to figure out under what rocks those differential guys might be hiding.

2.  Everton 1 v. Manchester City 0.  I watched the replay of this game on FSC and was stunned by the quality of Everton's defending (w/o Jagielka or Distin) and overall play.  Fellaini bossed Silva, the back 4 were tight and tidy, and Drenthe and Donovan looked terrific on the counter.  The unpronounceably named Argentine guy on top put himself about and looked dangerous throughout.  The entire team looked composed in defense and on the ball.  Is this the same team we were all running from after their DGW fail ?  Drenthe made the goal and looked dangerous every time he touched the ball.  Unfortunately, with Pienaar back (who I don't rate at 7.0 as a FF prospect), you wonder if he'll continue in the starting 11.  Man City seemed to have one of those days, perhaps less than inspired by Mancini who said after the game he had not prepared the team properly, thinking the game would be 'easy'. Moyes may not have a full cast of international superstars at his disposal, but no game against a Moyes team is ever easy.  Still, Aguero and Dzeko had a few chances and Man City dominated possession.  As a holder of Aguero, I'm a little worried at three straight 2-pointers.  But with FUL, BLA, and BOL visiting in the next 4 GW, it seems prudent to hold.

3.  Swansea 1 v. Chelsea 1.  This is the game that has convinced me it's time to drop Sturridge.  Swansea bossed large portions of this game and Chelsea just look so deliberate and slow in the build up.  I remember I had Torres in my team for a couple of weeks early on in the season and as I watched this one I thought 'what was I thinking ?'  Chelsea still sit in the 4th CL spot (and 4th in goals scored) but it's hard to see any value in this team right now except perhaps Terry, A.Cole (after his red card suspension) or Ivanovic if their recent defensive solidity holds.  You might put Cahill in here too, if he ever gets a start. Despite Boswinga's goal, I think AVB will move Ivanovic to RB; Ivanovic has started virtually every game this season in which he's been fit.

4.  The RvP(c) fail.  I followed this game on the BBC text and the Dutchman apparently hit the woodwork twice, was thwarted by a Bogdan wonder save on another occasion and laid on 2 balls OC and Ramsey should have finished.  The Ramsey miss is nothing new; I had him for a few weeks and saw him play a number of games on TV and he may be the least composed midfielder in front of goal in the EPL.

But the (c) fail (and I have a strong tradition of (c) fails) has got me thinking about a rule I used to follow very consistently until last year - call it the Stoosher Captain Selection Rule (the "SCSR"). 

And it was this: select (1) your best midfielder who is (2) at home (3) and playing against the weakest opponent.

I got away from it last year with so many forwards hitting on all cylinders (I rode RvP like a rented mule in the second half of the season last year).  But the rule has several virtues.  First, midfielders always have the potential to get a CS 1 point added on; midfielders typically get more assists than forwards, thus the potential for steady points hauls (think Daivd Silva v. Kun Aguero) and not so much boom and bust potential. Home teams score more - a lot more  - than away teams over a season.  The other virtue is it takes a lot of guesswork out of the picture, since you normally have only 1 or 2 real options in any given week.  Until last year, I actively focused on setting up 2-3 midfielder captain options with a home/away balance so I would always have a good home option.  Of course, this was much easier back in the day when Lampard/Gerrard/Ronaldo/Fabregas ruled the earth. 

But the frequency with which my captain selections have failed this year (despite having RvP since GW12), has me reconsidering a return to the rule.  Under the SCSR, Bale(c) would have been a no-brainer this week.  And I could have done a lot worse than a Valencia/Silva, home/away armband rotation over the last 10 GWs.  Well, actually, I have done a lot worse.

RvP at home v. Blackburn means and with only Moses at home in my midfield, I'll probably postpone the rule's application this week.  But I may make some adjustment to my midfield to ensure a good home option every week.

5.  The transfer window.  I think QPR's transfer business has been brilliant.  I posted in December I thought QPR were going down because I thought Warnock was in over his head in the Prem, but with Hughes in charge and these transfers, I think QPR will rise back to midtable mediocrity.  Hughes has revamped QPR's attack and fortified the back line.  If you have Helguson, time to sell because unless Cisse (6.5) or Zamora (6.7) get injured, he's only going to get time-wasting cameos, in my opinion.  With QPR's near term schedule (WOL, bla, FUL, EVE, bol, LIV), I like either of Cisse or Zamora.  I liked Cisse from his time at Liverpool and it's hard to think of a better target guy than Zamora who, in FF terms, provides assists and BPs to make up for his lack of a great goal scoring record.  And if Hughes is okay with Taye Taiwo's over-the-top attacking play, he looks a good value at 4.5. 

After Everton's play against MNC, I'm intrigued by Nikica Jelavic (6.5), transferred in from Rangers.  Historically, he has a good goal scoring record at Rangers, and I doubt Moyes invested heavily (for Everton) to provide him with a seat at Goodison.  With Louis Saha gone to Tottenham, and Moyes apparently not convinced by unpronounceably named Argentine guy, Jelavic should go straight in to the starting lineup.  Reports are he is 6'2" - and I would guess a few Baines crosses will be aimed at his big ol' Croat head.  Everton have a tough near term schedule but they get CHE, TOT, and ARS at home.  Man City can attest Moyes's boys are not a pushover at Goodison.

6.  As the worm turns.  With Sessegnon, Dempsey, Valencia, and Bale all away, and all with very tough away fixtures against teams perfectly capable of keeping clean sheets, I am guessing we won't see a 45 point average (which was probably closer to a 65 point average if you throw out all the ghost ships; of the top 20 teams in my minileague, only 3 had 50 points or less, 12 had 65 points or more and 2 were 80+) this week.  Unless RvP gets back on track.