Differentials are getting hard to come by

With Ba and Cisse returning early, and with Balotelli's suspension pushing Dzeko into some manager's thoughts (only me and a few others apparently, there appears to be a Ba feeding frenzy), I've been thinking about team make-up and the differentials that will (i) help me grow my minileague lead (rust never sleeps) or (ii) might help others improve their minileague position.

 

I guess the key point is the lack of differentials we're seeing in most teams (I am excluding the 'ghost ship' teams here).  I am seeing a lot of RMT teams with, essentially, 5 mids and 3 forwards a manager will want in his team most weeks.

 

So you'll see something like -  

Silva/Bale/Dempsey/Valencia/Sessegnon - RvP/Aguero/Sturridge with a plan to bring in Ba for Sturridge) 

 

Of course, you can only start 7.  And this issue is typically dismissed with the rationale 'it's a good problem to have'.  This may be contrarian but, well, no, it's not.  It's a waste of assets.  If we assume you've paid at least 6.5 for the least of your front 8 (as in the example here), you are wasting at least 1.0/1.5 every week - and more if you sit anyone costing more that, if we presume one's bench should be filled with 4.0-5.5(at most) guys.

 

I currently have Moses (Bale/Valencia/Sessegnon/Dempsey) in my midfield but have been thinking about bringing Silva or another elite or tier 2 midfielder in.  But that sets up a 5-man midfield with players I don't want to sub out and a front 3 I won't be inclined to sit either (RvP/Aguero/Sturridge(or Ba, if I jump on that bandwagon)).  Now Sessegnon/Ba set up a perfect NWC/SUN rotation pairing.  But.  Of Sessegnon's 5G/8A, 3G/3A have come away; Ba has actually scored more goals away from St. James Park than in its friendly confines.  And you are wasting significant funds having these 6.5+ or the 7.3+ assets on your bench.  In my case, I can put a number on it, since I have the 4.8 Moses in my team as perfect bench fodder (90 min every week, occasional 3+ games) - I waste 1.7+ sitting Sessegnon or would waste 2.4+ if I acquired and sat Ba. That's the difference between sitting bench fodder and having the supposed 'good' problem. So.

 

This leads me to a couple of conclusions.  You either need a bench fodder player in your front 8; someone whose role is to serve as an able replacement in the event one of your front 7 sits; or you need 2 high end budget guys to rotate in your front 8.  A second conclusion about differentials follows from a rough eyeballing of most RMTs - most teams (active, as opposed to the 'ghost ship' teams still floating around out there - about half of my minileague, for instance) are settling on a selection of 7/8 from among about 14 front players-

 

Silva/Bale/Valencia/Dempsey/Sessegnon/Walters/Dyer/Nani(inj?)

RvP/Rooney/Aguero/Adebayor/Sturridge/Ba/Dzeko

 

Only Dyer looks like he is still subject to selection as a budget alternative, otherwise teams are loading up on  this group of elite guys or mid-price guys who have so far proved to have significant value.  The good news is selecting 7 from this group does afford many managers excess funds.  What to do then ? 

 

My conclusion here is perhaps controversial but it is this - with the 'staleness' (or lack of differentials) of attacking selection options, differentials will come from (1) the steady accretion of points in defense or (2) opting for a sound rotation strategy with 2 or even 4 'under-the-radar' types in your attacking positions.  With respect to (2) here, there aren't a ton of options that I see at the right price (Ramires/Zamora is one at the high-end of what you might want to pay for rotation guys) or who are guaranteed starts (Sessegnon/Ben Arfa in this category, in that Ben Arfa's place is not nailed down).  But if you examine the schedule and the 'value' filter in FPL or review the numbers in the FFS Members section, you may be able to find a really solid pairing or 2. 

 

So the first option seems perhaps the best path forward - spend the extra cash afforded by some of the mid-priced options among the 14 or so 'standard' attacking picks and add an extra elite team* defender even 2; and gamble on one of these selections being a defender with some offensive upside (Vermaelen, G.Johnson, A.Cole, Richards, Ivanovic).  I might also even recommend thinking about a Hart or Reina or a Lindegaard/deGea combo in goal and doubling down as your pick's schedule presents CS opportunities.  This is contrary to most standard FF manager advice and certainly won't see your team rocket up the table.  But a steady accumulation of CS for 2-3 defenders can turn a lot of 30-40 point weeks into 50+.  Simply put, if you are paying attention, your attacking differentials are limited to timely hitting the armband selection a few weeks in a row, since most teams have the same attacking players.  Are 4 elite team defenders too many ?  I think it might be a big differential.

 

*For argument sake, I am going to put MNC, MUN, CHE, ARS and LIV in this 'elite' defense category, although an argument can be made that TOT have kept more CS and deserve the designation more than CHE.  And the argument can be made against ARS inclusion, although my view is they are a different team w/Vermaelen at center back.  I guess I would make the further qualification that you should always look at the near-term (6 games out or so) schedule too, because aside from the 2 Manchesters, all of the teams in this group have had ups and downs.