GW20 (and FA Cup) Takeaway

Another red arrow ahead unless Friedel can keep a CS or Simpson and McAuley's 8 points off the bench pulls me out of a jam.  My gamble on Friedel as captain this DGW was premised on 2 low scoring games; two things I didn't think through clearly enough were (i) if Bale scored or grabbed an assist, BP were sure to follow and (ii) Friedel, despite his high saves total, was unlikely to face a lot of shots from offense-shy WBA and Everton, and therefore unlikely to get saves points in these 2 matches.  I'm not having regrets just yet, because I think Friedel's CS chances are as good as Bale's goal/assist chances but all my minileague rivals have Bale captained.  Oh well. 1.  I think Manchester City will walk it.  The win over Liverpool was superb and the fight back with 10 men against Man United demonstrated some character.  No other team has their talent.  And while pundits seem to think it's a 2 horse race, I don't think Jones/Ferdinand/Smalling/Evra/Evans/Rafael are good enough.  What's this mean for FF ?  Well, along with a good schedule in the near term (wig, TOT, eve, FUL, avl, BLA, BOL), it suggests to me 3 MNC guys are a good idea. Kompany's red card means he'll miss a couple of EPL games (unless the appeal is won) but Kompany, Richards and Lescott (with Kolo Toure at ACN) look good bets in back.  I like Clichy at 5.6 but Kolarov presents a rotation risk.  Silva is the obvious midfield guy, selected by 44% of managers, but Johnson and Milner play often enough to think about.  A guy I am going to look at on his return from ACN is Yaya Toure.  Significanly cheaper than Silva, he is the one everpresent for Mancini and has plenty of attacking upside.  At forward, it's all about Aguero. You'll have to make the judgment whether Adebayor or Sturridge represent better value or whether Rooney's return to FF relevance is upon us. but MUN's schedule is pretty tough short term.  Dzeko at 8.0 is still the 7th leading scoring FF forward.  He's bee a massive sell candidate since mid-November when starts (and goals) dried up, but if Aguero is a stretch for the budget . . . I don't think Edin Dzeko has forgotten how to score.   In addition to thinking Man City will walk to the title, I also think Man Utd's loss of Vidic and midfield woes suggest they may be in play in terms of the CL battle.  With their attacking strength, I think they'll score goals, but anyone looking at Man Utd's starting 11 in any given GWwill have a hard time suggesting to me it's a better 11 than Tottenham, Chelsea, Liverpool or Arsenal are fielding. In FF terms, I'm not going to drop Nani, nor would I drop Rooney if I had him, but it's wait and see for me with the MUN defensive assets, especially with ars, STK, che, LIV, nor, tot waiting after this week's game versus Bolton.   2.  Clint Dempsey time ?  I've bigged up Dempsey a couple times this year, and he is sitting there or thereabouts 10th in FF points among all players.  Fulham have a terrific schedule ahead, aside from a trip to MNC.  Bryan Ruiz has started every game since GW14 and has 2 goals and 2 assists and is priced at 6.0.  Obviously Yakubu or Fletcher have scored better at the same price range but with Fulham's schedule and an increasing comfort in the EPL may mean Ruiz, at 0.2% ownership could be a quality differential.  Another forward, at 5.2, who looks terrific when you watch Fulham, is Moussa Dembele.  Nailed on starter since GW9 for Martin Jol, Dembele  does a ton of work and has a ton of skill.  No FF product yet, but if 1 goes in will more follow ?   More Fulham . . . Senderos has started every games since GW12, including 3 CS. At 4.3.  A super steady point getter at near budget range is Danny Murphy at 6.1.  An awful lot of 2/3 point performances but he has 2G, 4A and at 6.1, you could do worse than that for a 4th midfielder.  Murphy's on pens too.  If Bobby Zamora is healthy and has sorted his pissing match with Jol, he may be worth a look at 6.6.  My trepidation about Zamora is he never seems to  play a full season; 1 season in the last 5 over 2200+ min.   3.  Everton.  DGW bust ?  Lots of managers looked for ways to get in Everton players after loading up on Tottenham.  Most of us grasped at straws (sheepishly raises hand, ahem, Drenthe) thinking Baines or Osman or Drenthe or Hibbert or Jagielka were worth a look.  Little did we know Tim Howard would have the best look all night at the Bolton goal.  Everton were and are a no-go area in FF and I am sorry I convinced myself otherwise.  This is what the January WC was designed for.   4.  QPR.  In a previous post I suggested Wigan and Bolton might escape and QPR and Norwich were my candidates to go down with Blackburn.  In FF terms, my thought was only Yakubu and Morison were ownable from those 3 teams.  If Mark Hughes is, indeed, named as QPR manager, I wonder if QPR won't become a much stronger side and maybe a Ferdinand or a Gabbidon might become worth owning. I'll be looking at the first few results to see if there is a 'Martin O'Neil' effect at QPR - just as Sunderland suddenly look like a top half team.

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