Another red arrow and another discouraging performance sees my side drop outside the top 8000. Luckily, my minileague rivals have had up and down performances as well and I have maintained a 50+ point lead. My fiercest rival, ForzaInter has moved to 3rd and is within 60 points now, the headlights in the rearview mirror, ominously growing . . . a few notes on the GW.
1. Suarez. I'm not going to comment on the whole handshake controversy as this entire situation has been so badly handled all round - by the FA, by Suarez, by Liverpool, by Dalglish, and post-match celebrating, by Evra himself. From a FF perspective, Suarez reminded us that he can score goals and after the Carling Cup induced blank GW26, Liverpool have ARS, sun, qpr, WIG, nwc, AVL and perhaps a DGW squeezed in there somewhere. Those of us holding Aguero (11.2 for a guy who looks like a good home/away rotation candidate), after BLA, BOL, it may be time to look at a cheaper strike model and Suarez fits that bill.
2. Chelsea, wtf. I looked at this game and thought, 0-1, 0-2 to Chelsea. And so I moved for David Luiz in, Enrique out. Instead of looking to the more solid Tottenham back line and returning Dawson to my team or going for Assou-Ekotto. A bit of a lesson here, in that I think I tend to think in terms of a last year paradigm or let long-term reputation influence my player selection way too often. Chelsea have been such a solid defensive team for years, and so I expect a return to that this year, instead of believing what 24 GWs - not exactly a small sample - have shown; Chelsea are just not that good at the back this year. Move on.
3. I find Roberto Mancini very frustrating. I brought in Gael Clichy in my January window WC because he had started 16/21 games, including 1 self induced benching (red card), and had 7 CS. He has since started the Tottenham game (1 point) and sat the last 2 clean sheets. So, now I have 2 high risk rotation candidates in my back 5 (Clichy, Luiz). You get what you pay for and if you buy the 'budget' guy in an otherwise sturdy defense, you can't expect payoff week in and week out. Dzeko and Nasri owners, I feel your pain.
4. "Patience" as a FF watchword. I often think that if I looked at my team every 2 weeks or so, instead of obsessing every day, I would do a lot better. I'd see the forest, not the trees, and, after all, it's a 38 game schedule, and if I made only long term transfer selections, rather than schedule, form, this week's flavor - selections, I'd be a lot better off. Erm, Luiz this week. I was reminded of this with the performances of Rooney and Adebayor. These 2 have been massive FF performers in the past. Despite their barren spells this year, there was nothing to suggest that they wouldn't return to "form" (A note about "form" - a stupid word which signifies absolutely nothing other than, perhaps a slight uptick in self-confidence. I don't believe in "form" from a FF perspective. Torres isn't suffering from a loss of form, his self-confidence is shot). They sit 3rd and 7th respectively in FF points among all players over 25 GWs. The lesson: players like these will always, always return to "form" i.e., score again, at some point.
5. Blackburn 3 v. QPR 2. I knew there would be goals in this one and last Thursday and Friday, I sent the following emails to my rival ForzaInter about a possible swap I was looking at -
I have been running the numbers at the invaluable FFS/Members area. And I believe I've found an old favorite who is producing very good numbers since the New Year and who can provide me with some cash and yet kick in with goals/assists. He plays for a team who are having no trouble scoring goals this year, although it is a team which may well go down . . .
. . . here comes Friday and more nerves. My mystery midfielder from yesterday was none other than Morten Gamst Pedersen. But after further analysis overnight, I am probably going a different direction. MGP has surprisingly good attacking numbers over the last 6 GWs and with what I think will be a goal fest tomorrow and with a reasonably decent schedule ahead, he seemed a good shout as a rotation candidate . . .
I have a fond place in my heart for Gamst Pedersen because I rode him in the second half of the season a few years ago in his best FF season ever. Ultimately, MGP didn't get on the board, and I used my free for David Luiz (fail). But I think there are plenty of attacking players in these 2 teams worth looking at. Yakubu, obviously, but also David Hoilett who has quietly amassed 73 points, and sits behind, Graham, Holt, Morison, Yakubu, and Fletcher in the under 6.0 category. I wouldn't be surprised, when all is said and done, given that he starts whenever healthy, that he finishes 3rd or 4th in the budget forward category. I think MGP is worth looking at, too, at 6.2. For QPR, Zamora, obviously, but I also wonder about Buzsaky and now, again, after all the preseason hype, and first half of drawing blanks, if Adel Taarabt shouldn't be back in our thinking. Hughes seems to rate him; in the highlight show he looked terrific, and he did get an assist. QPR's schedule looks reasonably good over the near term, with their 2 hard games coming at Loftus Road. The other guy is left back Taye Taiwo - at 4.5, QPR aren't keeping clean sheets but he looks like getting forward every time QPR possess.
6. Everton 2 v. Chelsea 0. Should Everton come back into our thinking after the blank GW26 ? 4 goals conceded in their last 6 games (2 CS v. MNC and CHE at home), suggests a healthy Distin (5.1) or Heitinga (5.2) might be worth thinking about. Hibbert was dropped for Chelsea, but he is 4.6. In attack, while I've never rated him as a FF prospect, Steven Pienaar is 7.0, and Moyes is sure to start him. Perhaps when the DGW is scheduled, he should come into our thinking. Landon Donovan leaves shortly, and - dare I say it - Royston Drenthe might be given that midfield role.
7. Swansea 2 v. Norwich 3. Swansea looks safe from a relegation fight, but from a FF perspective, there has been a sharp drop in defensive returns. Swansea hasn't kept a home CS since GW15. Vorm gets enough 'saves' points - and most of us bought at ~4.0, so would lose substantial value - to justify giving him starts against mid-table/relegation candidate teams, but you wouldn't typically put a SWN defender in your lineup away, which means you haven't got SWN defender CS points since GW15, unless a SWN defender autosubbed in one of those away CS. There was a lot of love for Gylfi Sigurdsson this GW, but Danny Graham looks like the best buy here, at 5.0, he has 10 goals and sits in 7th place among forwards in FF points. Everyone above him is at least 2.8M more expensive. Edin Dzeko's 2 minute cameo kept my rival ForzaInter from getting Danny Graham's points haul auto-subbed. Thank god for small favors.
Norwich is a no go area defensively in terms of FF, although Ruddy as a cheap back up GK option works. Norwich continue to score goals and the likes of Pilkington, Surman, B. Johnson, and Holt look good value.
We've all got 2 weeks now, to assess our sides for the run-in. I may try to step away for a few days and try to see the forest for the trees . . .
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